My portfolio went from +6% to -6%. Stay invested, they said. Time in the market beats timing the market, they said.
3 Likes
I like dividends too . No problem. I just donât like costs to reinvest sometimes . Thatâs all 
And now my IBKR app is buggy, it shows my portfolio down even more than yesterday. Should I message support?
8 Likes
Then I donât see a way around following the news and taking a leap of faith when you think the proper conditions are there for a lasting rebounce. I would not personally tie myself to a set level of drop for digging back in with a levered position. I might settle on -20% with an unlevered one (if I were gambling, of course).
Youâre right as usual, itâs essentially a gut feel, finger in the air âthis feels good enoughâ type of thing.
Not sure what you mean by gambling? You mean shorting? Talking of gambling, SQQQ made nearly 30% in essentially 3 days. Sometimes I hate being a chickenshitâŠI wanted to sell back in Feb but I didnât, and itâd have been almost selling the top (proof), but again I thought that having a plan and sticking to it it probably the best idea.
I donât mind seeing stock market declines. What I donât get is why I always manage to buy big chunks right before bigger declines. Iâm -24% YTD. SP500 is down -12% YTD.
Maybe holding UPRO longterm isnât such a great idea lol.
3 Likes
Thatâs where you need to be careful my man, either you use it as itâs supposedly intended, as a very short-term trading instrument OR really long term, otherwise you get burnt. People in the LETF communities often make fun of the warnings plastered all over LETFs that they are daily leverage instruments but they can really hurtâŠ
1 Like
You really need to hope the S&P stops falling or else i dont know if UPRO will be able to manage liquidity.
I should hopefully be ok, it survived 2022. The other issue is the bigger these LETFs get the bigger their liquidity needs, or so I readâŠ
unbelievable SSAC_CHF is down almost 11% in 2 days. This is super crash or world ETF in CHF terms.
1 Like
Trying to beat the market performance. I donât have enough skill/practice/consistent luck for the odds of me achieving it to significantly outweigh me winning in a casino (it doesnât stop me from trying, mind you, though lack of investable capital currently does).
1 Like
I had fun and I learnt a lot with Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip? and When do we reach the bottom of the dip? (2022-24 Edition)
Does it make sense to have a new one, based on the current situation on the stock market?
1 Like
Source: https://x.com/nickgiva1/status/1908193011265069216
(If I make the picture small enough, @Dr.PI maybe wonât notice and remove it?)
7 Likes
Bought some more VTI.
6 Likes
Personal estimate: S&P500 bottoming at 4000-4200.
1 Like
Iâd say itâs all down to bad luck,
However, there were clues to that famous April 2 when Trump was going to unveil his liberation plan, which was bound to be negative and have a negative impact on the markets. Waiting a few days, weeks or months might have been wiser. On the other hand, thereâs also the theory of not timing the market⊠Anyway. Itâll go up one day⊠I hope
Personally, Iâve never seen my portfolio fall so precipitously on IB. Itâs truly vertical, itâs scary, but itâs part of the game. Iâm just waiting out the storm, hopping it will not be too longâŠ
On the other hand, itâs very funny to see this and to listen to Americans (MAGA supporter) surprised by the policies of their president, who promised that the stock market would never stop rising 
6 Likes
3600 in todayâs dollars (I do expect 2 years of hogh inflation). This in about 18 months, with two bull traps in between now and the final low at 3600. This is an optimistic scenario, asuming we donât face a big drop / major financial crisis.
2 Likes
Vietnam (who has tariff of 5% on average US imports) is working with US to reduce their tariff to zero and strike a deal. Trump imposed 46% on them because Vietnam is ripping them off.
Trump can say that instead of 90% (as per the ridiculous chart) Taiwan will charge us 0% and we would remove our tariff surcharge. I think 10% might continue still though. MAGA would love that because they donât fact check anyways.
I believe some of these deals will be made because countries will cave in if they are very much dependent on US. Although one can argue if 5% to zero is really caving in.
So you never know if Monday starts a bit positive because it gives a hope that this is a negotiation.
Big deal is China because they might not back down easily as they are second largest economy and can inflict lot of pain.
EU is still considering what to do. So nothing will come until end of month. In my view EU should only protect the industries which are underutilised right now and donât try to do across the board tariffs. As we know tariffs will only increase our cost unless we have a cheaper alternate. But EU should definitely remove internal EU barriers to increase regional trade
Who is buy at 106? Any spare cash?
1 Like