Indeed
Hear me out … even if the index keeps falling 5% every day, the daily loss gets smaller and smaller in absolute CHF numbers!
Now everyone whistle with me …
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oh yeah, Mr. Politician.
Scare the shit out of everybody including your voters and then sit back and relax. WCGW.
Is it a third or fourth thread about the same thing? 
I have lost my count.
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I spent a nice long time studying the 2000 and 2008 crashes while waiting for a correction. Both these were ~50% crashes in the S&P500 and took 1-2 years to play out (each). We’ve now had a nearly 20% drop, 10% of which happened in literally 3 days. There was also a 50% crash in 1972-1974, and basically nearly 10 years between 1972-1982 were down.
I personally believe two things:
- We’ll get no more than a 30% crash in total from ATH
- It’ll recover by end of 2026
Because
- these tariffs, coming from Drumpf, can be reversed as quickly as imposed, he’s not known to be a trustworthy character and he likes his ass kissed. Vietnam is already kissing.
- it’s in everyone’s interest for the global economy to continue working
- information flows extremely fast compared even with 2008, let alone 2000 and before, meaning movements are sharper and faster.
So yeah, there’s something falling but I’m personally not considering it so sharp. Edit: the expression probably refers to single stocks, not index funds.
Only sure thing is we’ll all find out eventually 
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I wouldn’t quite characterize it this way, there’s a lot of isolationists in the US administration.
That’s what I thought too, before I saw the weekly candlestick (of VT) 
A Spanish seller in the same situation could have left Switzerland without a bike and some cash in his pocket. I would have left Spain with debt or less cash and without a bike. This is unfair and it is the same for any export situation. Spain is treating private Swiss motorbike exporters way worse than Switzerland treats Spaniards in the same situation. That was the example and I really don’t see how anybody cannot understand that.
I may be alone with this opinion, I had my personal experience. But to accuse me of spreading misinformation is quiet an insult!
I feel this VAT situation is unfair. But it is completely out of topic because we know now what idiotic reasons the new tariffs are based on.
OK, but I cannot leave uncommented that I spread misinformation. I hope you understand that, if not just delete it and I will think twice before posting again.
And I hope we can get back on topic now.
Nice, bottom fisher thread.
I hate market timing, but I do it too. Once we enter bear market territory (NASDAQ did already I think) I stop buying and wait for signs of market reversal. Then I buy on credit, a lot. Did this the last 3 bear markets. Twice my timing was almost perfect, the third time it was too early… I had to suffer a lot before making a shitton of money. The more pain the more gain.
Here is a little finviz screener that shows the number of SP500 stocks that are over the 50 days average. Once the number of stocks is more than 250 I look for other signs, mainly the VIX Future contango situation.
As always my methods are completely mechanic, no more decision making in volatile situations. I made all needed decisions a decade ago.
My mechanical systems:
You do what you think is right. 
But I would classify and merge things into
- “Impact of rapidly changing policies” ← Any recent commentary on Trump tariffs
- “Chronicles of whatever years” ← Merge the two threads of fat/lean 2024-202x into it, doesn’t make sense to have 2 (and will be more interesting to read back through how the sentiment has shifted
); Or close (the older) one.
I appreciate it’s not easy, so fine if it stays this way too.
But I’m getting a sense as well that the same themes start flowing through 3 threads.
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If we do merge fat/lean years threads, I feel like a one post summary (list) of their history (when which was created with what title) would be useful, as a reminder of people’s prospects for the future that we can get back to with the benefit of hindsight.
Case in point, the chronicles of fat years 2024-27 and of the lean years 2025-27 overlap and I think that’s useful information to keep in mind when we assess the right asset allocation for us.
I’d lean toward a one post wiki thread that doesn’t need to be stickied (but that we can use as a reference to link toward), so that it can be edited by anybody in case the author leaves the board/becomes less active. I’ll create one in a week if I don’t get negative feedback for it and no other solution is applied 'till then.
Edit: alternatively, and that’s my preference, create a single mega-thread with a neutral title covering the ups and downs and don’t segregate by years/time periods so that we can browse it all in the same place and the history of bad and good times gets bumped up whenever something significant enough to have someone wanting to post in it happens.
I don’t know how that would fare with the resources of the forum, though. As a general matter, for non-detailed discussions, I’m a proponent of long single threads rather than slicing it up in several smaller ones (but I can live with either).
Seems people need more avenues to ramble about their fears than to muse about their hopes …?
<insert witty loss aversion quote here>
Anyway, back on topic:
Today could be the 2nd day in a row where the S&P 500 fell more than -4.5%
This has only happened during some of the worst crashes before.
Here’s what the S&P 500 did next:
Source: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1908230048169042423
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I would advise to combine everything in one thread, but change the title. Something like “Investing in 2025” or “Markets in 2025” and do a yearly thread.
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Looking forward to those green days 
At this moment I am getting very close to going RED for absolute returns since beginning of investing period ( March 2021) 
I guess when global market crashes close to 20% in CHF terms , it’s expected to wipe out all gains for DCA investors if investment period is not long enough.
SSAC_CHF is dropped to same level as April 2021 & even VT is at similar levels as Aug 2021 now.
Interesting. Checking indices since 2020 give me the following numbers (XIRR):
SP500 8.95%, Dow 5.75%, Nasdaq 13.98%, Russell 2000 1.74%
The I compare the same period with my strategies: dividend 10.63%, momentum 19.67%. My target return is 10% for dividend and 20% for momentum, quiet close, even after this selloff.
That is the disadvantage of index investing. Those indices are mostly momentum strategies, but with many stocks contained that I would not touch with gloves.
But that is probably the only disadvantage, there are a lot of advantages too. I made many costly errors before getting where I am now, that does not happen with ETF.
If you have the AI engine turned on, this search gives quiet a good description of the XIRR function:
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I already turned red in a total money invested vs yesterday’s cashout value, and I expect many people to be deeper in the red, however how are these green days helping you or anyone else?
I posted a nice article looking deeper in the “if you lose the X best days…” quote a few days/week back, it doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense to be thankful for the X best days as they usually cluster in the deepest darkest bears, and goes back to conclude that time in the market really does beat timing the market.
Looking back at my own post history here, I really was tempted to sell all on the 19th of Feb, gut feeling, nerves, no idea. I wish I had. Now that we’re in it there’s no way out without loss than staying.
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I would if I knew how to do it, but the problem is any time I try to see a video or read an article it goes from this:
to this
in about 30 seconds.
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I think portfolio should grow over time. If it’s red for 20 years and grow 200% in last year that’s great but that would not be very conducive for investing.
I would say it’s natural to expect net positive returns (at all times) after certain years of investing . Maybe the number is close to 6-7 years
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Hmmm, it does grow over time, though, either in monetary value or # of shares or both. It depends what you mean by being red for 20 years, you mean being underwater in an absolute, personal money invested basis?
I mean historically that’d only happen if one made a leveraged buy with a lump sum of their whole liquid NW, at the very top of the very worst crises, which is very unrealistic, and never bought again for 20 years, which is also unrealistic. I don’t have the data now, but I’ve seen it showing that even in this sort of scenario one would be breaking even much faster than the index would come back to zero (eg in the dot com + GCF years).
Not saying it’s easy, we need to take the bitter pill for sure. If someone went into investing having done, understood and digested this due diligence, and having sufficient self-awareness then they should feel ok. I personally feel just fine and a few friends where we talk about it feel fine too. Maintaining our personal revenue streams (ie our jobs!) is critical now.
Edit: I see infuriating posts on reddit today and since Wednesday that “time in the market is cope”, “it’s all bullshit, we’ve been scammed”… That’s just lambs to slaughter who got greedy and now got burnt and looking to blame someone else, as humans typically do.
I agree. 10 years if you want to be extra conservative! Edit: that’s why sequence of returns risk is a critical consideration.
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