I think Pharma and Chips were never excluded (from scope) but the issue was that they cannot cause a supply shock on these items without having proper supply chains in place.
They will come for sure but timing might vary.
I also think US wants the APIs to be made in US but I don’t know how many European companies would like that. For American companies it should be feasible
I was thinking about the impact of tariffs on global economy
US imports 3.3 Trillion USD worth of stuff. If on average 20% tariff is applied , then we are talking about 600 billion USD tariffs
Now this means this money would need to be either coming out of profits of importing companies, profit of exporting companies or from pockets of customers
Net net at global level, earnings will reduce by this amount or money available for investments / personal expenses will be reduced by this amount
600 billion = reduction in earnings + reduction in expenditure + reduction in capital investments
If everything works out well, US govt will redeploy this money to reduce their debts. BUT this means world economy have a net negative.
So unless tariffs are removed, we should definitely see an impact on economy. There is no other way
Right?
Dont forget the retaliatory tariffs and than the manbaby reacting with retaliatory retaliatory tariffs.
This can quickly spiral and end up at screeching halt for world economy.
I won’t go short, even with ETFs (which can’t put me into debt), I’d go for a long-only leveraged position with very little skin (1000-1500CHF at most).
There’s often a pump after big red, but I feel it’d be a dead cat bounce, so for the reason you mention (volatility) I’d wait more until it’s clear what other tariffs and mayhem will come, and act then.
@Abs_max was literally waiting/wishing for this since last June 
It’s tough to negotiate with someone who is willing to burn 
everything down
Then even holy dividends will be impacted 
Edit: but still better than accumulating funds where you hold something from 100 to 150 and then down to 100 
/s don’t kill me
Send a thank you letter to White House and CC Vance.
Nope, I wouldn’t. For many reasons but the key one being how uncalled for, stupid, mean/evil this is, and how despicable human beings both of them are.
If we had a crash because nVidia made bazillions instead of gazillions (1 gazillion is 1000 bazillions, not in the metric system yet) I’d say “great, back to reality for the crybabies”, but this is moronic, evil and immoral, based on alternative “facts”, manipulation, misinformation, will harm the many around the world. Can’t be thankful for that, but in a small personal and selfish level I’ll take it.
Best comment I read
„China should announce that they have reduced their tariffs from 67% to 34 % and now US should remove their tariffs in reciprocation“
Trump said China applies 67% tariff in his news conference. So 34% should be seen as a tariff cut
That’s not how it works. You always get divideds from underlying companies into the fund. The only difference is fund reinvests them instead of you personally.
Very smart.
China should apply 1000% tariff to spray tan products
Trump’s a loser.*
I know I know, that’s what the “/s” was for, means “sarcasm”. Some firms will for sure be forced to cut dividends as they’ll have cashflow problems, or cannibalize the business to maintain dividend status, with down the line problems.
But frankly, and seriously now, accumulating funds are about as fun as watching paint dry, and if they ride up and then down you literally end up holding a dumbbell for however much time it took for the ride if you don’t get any dividends. I know the math is the same, but the feeling isn’t.
And if you funnel the dividends in something else yourself then you may even get improved performance.
My portfolio went from +6% to -6%. Stay invested, they said. Time in the market beats timing the market, they said.
I like dividends too . No problem. I just don’t like costs to reinvest sometimes . That’s all
And now my IBKR app is buggy, it shows my portfolio down even more than yesterday. Should I message support?
Then I don’t see a way around following the news and taking a leap of faith when you think the proper conditions are there for a lasting rebounce. I would not personally tie myself to a set level of drop for digging back in with a levered position. I might settle on -20% with an unlevered one (if I were gambling, of course).
You’re right as usual, it’s essentially a gut feel, finger in the air “this feels good enough” type of thing.
Not sure what you mean by gambling? You mean shorting? Talking of gambling, SQQQ made nearly 30% in essentially 3 days. Sometimes I hate being a chickenshit…I wanted to sell back in Feb but I didn’t, and it’d have been almost selling the top (proof), but again I thought that having a plan and sticking to it it probably the best idea.
I don‘t mind seeing stock market declines. What I don‘t get is why I always manage to buy big chunks right before bigger declines. I‘m -24% YTD. SP500 is down -12% YTD.
Maybe holding UPRO longterm isn‘t such a great idea lol.
That’s where you need to be careful my man, either you use it as it’s supposedly intended, as a very short-term trading instrument OR really long term, otherwise you get burnt. People in the LETF communities often make fun of the warnings plastered all over LETFs that they are daily leverage instruments but they can really hurt…
