Chronicles of 2025

Yeah. It would take time. But I am already at 50% so slowly it would adjust. I only started in Feb 2021 , so portfolio is only 5X of annual contributions for now

For 1000 CHF, assuming you have significantly more assets aside, I would not fret it and follow my feelings right now.

I’d be long for today, as there has tended to be a green day after the major drops these last years (though that’s not a 100% occurrence and may not happen today, of course). Then I’d switch short again until I’m significantly convinced there’s a real bounce coming. I’d expect us to reach at least bear market territory this time around, though that can come with significant volatility able to kill a (leveraged) short position even if the general direction is right.

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You never know what you wish for :slight_smile:

I was wondering about a previous comment about trade deficit. What if at some point someone decides to buy oil and gas with another currency in order to improve their deficit? That could be the real beginning of the end of the world as it is.

I’ve heard it the other way around: foreigners (including states and institutions) buy treasuries because they have a surplus of $ they can’t easily get rid of, as they sell more in the US than they buy from them.

There are different reasons why people sell to US. Of course it a big market to sell. But if a country wants to completely eliminate their sales to US, they run into trouble as they need to get USD to get oil etc

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Now the US have said they’ll look at tariffs for pharmaceutical companies next, which lead to Novartis and Roche taking a dive (which are currently excluded from the 31%).

It’s not easy to buy Oil & Gas without using USD. Gas might be easier but Oil is more difficult. I don’t know if it’s a law or convention.

I think Pharma and Chips were never excluded (from scope) but the issue was that they cannot cause a supply shock on these items without having proper supply chains in place.

They will come for sure but timing might vary.
I also think US wants the APIs to be made in US but I don’t know how many European companies would like that. For American companies it should be feasible

I was thinking about the impact of tariffs on global economy

US imports 3.3 Trillion USD worth of stuff. If on average 20% tariff is applied , then we are talking about 600 billion USD tariffs

Now this means this money would need to be either coming out of profits of importing companies, profit of exporting companies or from pockets of customers

Net net at global level, earnings will reduce by this amount or money available for investments / personal expenses will be reduced by this amount

600 billion = reduction in earnings + reduction in expenditure + reduction in capital investments

If everything works out well, US govt will redeploy this money to reduce their debts. BUT this means world economy have a net negative.

So unless tariffs are removed, we should definitely see an impact on economy. There is no other way

Right?

Dont forget the retaliatory tariffs and than the manbaby reacting with retaliatory retaliatory tariffs.
This can quickly spiral and end up at screeching halt for world economy.

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I won’t go short, even with ETFs (which can’t put me into debt), I’d go for a long-only leveraged position with very little skin (1000-1500CHF at most).

There’s often a pump after big red, but I feel it’d be a dead cat bounce, so for the reason you mention (volatility) I’d wait more until it’s clear what other tariffs and mayhem will come, and act then.

@Abs_max was literally waiting/wishing for this since last June :slight_smile:

It’s tough to negotiate with someone who is willing to burn :fire: everything down

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Then even holy dividends will be impacted :frowning:

Edit: but still better than accumulating funds where you hold something from 100 to 150 and then down to 100 :wink: /s don’t kill me :wink:

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Send a thank you letter to White House and CC Vance. :wink:

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Nope, I wouldn’t. For many reasons but the key one being how uncalled for, stupid, mean/evil this is, and how despicable human beings both of them are.

If we had a crash because nVidia made bazillions instead of gazillions (1 gazillion is 1000 bazillions, not in the metric system yet) I’d say “great, back to reality for the crybabies”, but this is moronic, evil and immoral, based on alternative “facts”, manipulation, misinformation, will harm the many around the world. Can’t be thankful for that, but in a small personal and selfish level I’ll take it.

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Best comment I read

„China should announce that they have reduced their tariffs from 67% to 34 % and now US should remove their tariffs in reciprocation“

Trump said China applies 67% tariff in his news conference. So 34% should be seen as a tariff cut :slight_smile:

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That’s not how it works. You always get divideds from underlying companies into the fund. The only difference is fund reinvests them instead of you personally.

Very smart.
China should apply 1000% tariff to spray tan products

Trump’s a loser.*


Source: https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/he-pushed-the-red-button


* To George W. Bush.
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