Yeah. It would take time. But I am already at 50% so slowly it would adjust. I only started in Feb 2021 , so portfolio is only 5X of annual contributions for now
For 1000 CHF, assuming you have significantly more assets aside, I would not fret it and follow my feelings right now.
Iâd be long for today, as there has tended to be a green day after the major drops these last years (though thatâs not a 100% occurrence and may not happen today, of course). Then Iâd switch short again until Iâm significantly convinced thereâs a real bounce coming. Iâd expect us to reach at least bear market territory this time around, though that can come with significant volatility able to kill a (leveraged) short position even if the general direction is right.
You never know what you wish for
I was wondering about a previous comment about trade deficit. What if at some point someone decides to buy oil and gas with another currency in order to improve their deficit? That could be the real beginning of the end of the world as it is.
Iâve heard it the other way around: foreigners (including states and institutions) buy treasuries because they have a surplus of $ they canât easily get rid of, as they sell more in the US than they buy from them.
There are different reasons why people sell to US. Of course it a big market to sell. But if a country wants to completely eliminate their sales to US, they run into trouble as they need to get USD to get oil etc
Now the US have said theyâll look at tariffs for pharmaceutical companies next, which lead to Novartis and Roche taking a dive (which are currently excluded from the 31%).
Itâs not easy to buy Oil & Gas without using USD. Gas might be easier but Oil is more difficult. I donât know if itâs a law or convention.
I think Pharma and Chips were never excluded (from scope) but the issue was that they cannot cause a supply shock on these items without having proper supply chains in place.
They will come for sure but timing might vary.
I also think US wants the APIs to be made in US but I donât know how many European companies would like that. For American companies it should be feasible
I was thinking about the impact of tariffs on global economy
US imports 3.3 Trillion USD worth of stuff. If on average 20% tariff is applied , then we are talking about 600 billion USD tariffs
Now this means this money would need to be either coming out of profits of importing companies, profit of exporting companies or from pockets of customers
Net net at global level, earnings will reduce by this amount or money available for investments / personal expenses will be reduced by this amount
600 billion = reduction in earnings + reduction in expenditure + reduction in capital investments
If everything works out well, US govt will redeploy this money to reduce their debts. BUT this means world economy have a net negative.
So unless tariffs are removed, we should definitely see an impact on economy. There is no other way
Right?
Dont forget the retaliatory tariffs and than the manbaby reacting with retaliatory retaliatory tariffs.
This can quickly spiral and end up at screeching halt for world economy.
I wonât go short, even with ETFs (which canât put me into debt), Iâd go for a long-only leveraged position with very little skin (1000-1500CHF at most).
Thereâs often a pump after big red, but I feel itâd be a dead cat bounce, so for the reason you mention (volatility) Iâd wait more until itâs clear what other tariffs and mayhem will come, and act then.
@Abs_max was literally waiting/wishing for this since last June
Itâs tough to negotiate with someone who is willing to burn everything down
Then even holy dividends will be impacted
Edit: but still better than accumulating funds where you hold something from 100 to 150 and then down to 100 /s donât kill me
Send a thank you letter to White House and CC Vance.
Nope, I wouldnât. For many reasons but the key one being how uncalled for, stupid, mean/evil this is, and how despicable human beings both of them are.
If we had a crash because nVidia made bazillions instead of gazillions (1 gazillion is 1000 bazillions, not in the metric system yet) Iâd say âgreat, back to reality for the crybabiesâ, but this is moronic, evil and immoral, based on alternative âfactsâ, manipulation, misinformation, will harm the many around the world. Canât be thankful for that, but in a small personal and selfish level Iâll take it.
Best comment I read
âChina should announce that they have reduced their tariffs from 67% to 34 % and now US should remove their tariffs in reciprocationâ
Trump said China applies 67% tariff in his news conference. So 34% should be seen as a tariff cut
Thatâs not how it works. You always get divideds from underlying companies into the fund. The only difference is fund reinvests them instead of you personally.
Very smart.
China should apply 1000% tariff to spray tan products
Trumpâs a loser.*
Source: https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/he-pushed-the-red-button
* To George W. Bush.