2025 global equity risk premiums by Aswath Damodaran.
(Source)
Syria and Palestine look very promising.
Edit: **** it, I just bought the SETF. You can find the ISIN here: https://etfdb.com/country/syrian-arab-republic/
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You may not believe it, but I never had a loss with any of the stocks listed on that page!
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Not sure how to read this map? Low equity risk premium = high economic and political stability, yet low returns (given low ERP)?
Sp the conclusion is to passively invest in green countries, and to take a. Few controlled side beds in red countries? Or what is your take from this map?
Damodaranâs short explanation for the reading the map: ctryprem.xlsx
Papers will fuller explanations are linked from the spreadsheet above.
I believe it essentially boils down to your summary.
For equities, for me personally, I stick to the green countries with the majority allocated in the dark green ones.
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497% annuliazed YTD performance so far 
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Slow start, eh?
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Nah just Santa was drunk.
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I am sure most of you saw Zuck seemingly adopting MAGA speech and making changes MAGAs cream on. I feel this is more complicated than it seems at face value. Face value says heâs doing it to keep (or put) himself in the inner circle, considering heâs feuded with Trump before and now may be feeling sidelined by Musk and again in danger from Trumpâs vindictiveness.
Not to anger our benevolent mods with going political, Iâll dance around the politics and just say that if we look over at what happened with Musk getting twitter, sinks and all, this could have gazillion-level implications for the stock (as always, in my not at all humble opinion), and with knock-on effects in other industries driving our investments.
Edit: been having the nagging feeling we are in for a clustercoitus for many months now. If it happens itâll be my first with real skin in the game, 2022 seems dead obvious in hindsight (hindsight is 20/20!), and if this or next year turn out to be a scheisssturm thereâll be so many around the world who could say âhey, I told yaâ, highlighting how emotionally difficult it is to time the market. Been going over graphs of crashes for a while to prepare mentally and emotionally, whatâs obvious when I looked more closely is that they seem like happening in an instant in a zoomed out chart and how history remembers them, but in reality take months to play out (except 1987 which was a freak drop driven by crude algos messing up). Must be very tough to stay calm.
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Recent press conference was unbelievable and frightening
Take Greenland or serious tariffs for Denmark
Take Panama by Military force
Take Canada by economic force
Rename Gulf of Mexico
Force NATO countries to spend 5% on Defence
I am not sure how to read all this. But I feel if the biggest superpower in world gets into bullying mode for whole world and plans to change the world order through economic and military force, we might be in for a very rough period of investments.
When China said all this, people reduced / eliminated their exposure to Chinese stocks. Same for Russia, but what we would do with 60% of world stocks are in US
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Well, I suspect unlike if Russia or China behaves this way, I think weâd let the US get away with it and not sanction them in any meaningful way.
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I hope this ends up being good with Canada , Europe, India and LATAM becoming good friends
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I feel the difference, and saw it in smaller scale with the rise of populism and dinner table racism, as the British eloquently describe it, is that we let our shock, indignance and disbelief paralyse us because the things said are so outrageous and out of order that disbelief is the only reasonable initial response. Then we slowly realise they were told with a straight face and go âohâŠweâre not friends anymore, I didnât see that comingâ.
If someone told me 10 years ago that the POTUS said heâd annex Canada, and the Canadian PM responded with âNo chance in hellâ Iâd think this was said in some lampoon, by caricature actors and comedians (say, POTUS dressed in a cowboy hat, Canadian PM in a lumberjack shirt).
For all the good some of the MAG7 have done for investors, Iâm gradually coming 'round to wondering if (even more) regulation is needed, especially the social media/information ones, maybe even breaking them up as theyâve become unreasonably powerful and each has an enormous moat in their field.
Maybe Bezos and Zuck will become kindly old sages in their older age, like Gates and Buffett, and people will forget they once were stone cold killers. I still have a soft spot for Gates as I feel his foundation is a force for good indeed. I donât see Musk ever going sane, and Cook, Pichai, Nadella are a lot less public than the other MAG7 bosses.
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Once I heard a saying
When the CEO is very media focused, the company start working for the CEO instead of CEO working for the company . In long run it doesnât work out for company
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Thatâs a good one indeed, but does it hold water? In the end everyone, other than Musk whoâs unhinged, has to answer to shareholders.
Most investors and most money come out of the US. They wonât abandon themselves.
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Iâm surprised we are only at zero. I thought weâd be at negative expected returns by now.
That looks shitty. But whats the alternative?
Cash? Bonds?
Or we just blow our money now and enjoy our lives.
That probably boosts the company revenues and justifies the valuations 
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People who were invested in S&P 500 during last two years have already achieved 40-50% returns. So I think they should not be surprised if next 10 years are not good.
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