Maybe next month you can do some shopping 
Trump tariffs go live tomorrow - round one
Next in line is Europe
Perhaps this would shake the markets because until now people assumed it’s a threat tactic but now it seems to be hurt other economies to benefit US tactic.
Ah, you work part time?
(Sorry, could not resist)Yep, that’s what I am waiting for, but my plan is to be gradual and spread my liquidity, 15% from ATH, 30%, 45%.
What happened to “time in the market beats timing the market”?
Nothing so far?
Have you backtested this strategy?
Selling put options might be better long term
Read these two if you haven’t yet. Very enlightening.
Re backtesting: nope, no need to complicate what’s not needed to be complicated.
Re puts: I’d love to be able to do that for many reasons (getting some return for having cash sitting around while setting my buy goals exactly where I’d want them) but I can’t, or haven’t found a way to, do it in PostFinance, and I won’t use other brokers.
Buying CAOS is probably a nice subsitute. They buy the puts for you, while not bleeding money, due to their strategy. However their puts are far out the money and will only really move during fast crashes, like during covid.
Yeah I’ve seen them too, in combination with KMLM for fast and slow crash protection (sounds like a toothpaste/deodorant advert). I guesstimate that to be meaningful one would/should need to dedicate up to 20% of their portfolio in crisis alpha, but these ratios are basically sticking my finger in the air and going “seems good enough”, if you have something more sophisticated on top of mind I’d like to hear it.
@Dr.PI I haven’t seen these threads and am not about to read 5000 posts with brain leaking out my ears from the week I had at work and home (alone with 2 kids!). From a quick skim the sentiment is similar to threads I read on Bogleheads for the GFC (FUD, dead cat bounces, please god make it stop, we all goan die etc), however I have to give it to the “mustachians”, seems the forum walks the walk.
More finger in the air “statistics”, it SEEMS that most recent hard dips take 12-32 months to play out, so that’s the basis of my cunning plan. I am somewhat biased in not paying much attention to data before the 70s though.
20% is probably reasonable. It all comes down to acceptable volatility/drawdown.
Backtesting could give you some feeling for the numbers.
I’m also approaching my annual budget. I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around this. Why can people with capital earn so much while poor people work hard? What makes me entitled to this? Why even bother with “real” work when the capital is working for me? Ok, I spend a lot of time trying to understand the economy, but I would consider it a hobby.
Anyone feeling the same disconnect?
Having earned the capital. That’s what FIRE is all about. You save some when young and have some when older. Time is a very powerful tool, not only in the stock market.
When I started working with 15 years of age I made CHF 170 per month and had to work every month 5-10 days without a single Rappen in my pocket. That was bad, I worked really hard to change that… and succeeded.
I don’t see myself as entitled, but of course I had a lot of luck; being born in Switzerland is probably part of that. But luck alone doesn’t do the trick.
You made a conscious decision, put systematic effort in it, kept it consistent for a long time, things most people seem to be unable to do. I remain flabbergasted by the number of people I know for whom 2 weeks out is so far out into the future that they’re unable to plan anything. They drop off the race before even starting, the most sure fire way to lose, because they can’t do delayed gratification, and approaching a problem in a systematic, incremental way seems insurmountable to them. I have little sympathy for this attitude to be honest.
The flipside is, I believe, creating wealth which takes on a life of its own after a while. That’s both earned and must be deeply satisfying. Incidentally @PhilMongoose that’s one more thing I learnt from computer games, specifically RPGs where you start as a nobody with nothing and need to grind your ass off to get anywhere, 0.1% of the next level, 1 gold piece closer to that weapon or armour at a time, you need to collaborate with other players and develop fundamental social and diplomatic skills which again many people are lacking and react to any sort of challenge as a cornered ape on fire. Sometimes I’d just stare at my WoW character, dripping with epic items and marvel! Edit: back into WoW, if someone told me in an interview that they were a guild leader of a successful raiding guild I’d hire them on the spot. Having seen how hard it is at time to organise 5-10 highly educated, highly paid I think organizing 40 15-25 year old to work together is a serious test of leadership.
Life needs the grind too, I remember Gordon Ramsay interviewing elite sushi chefs in Japan where he was told that the first 2-3 years of every trainee is cleaning, then washing rice, then after 4-5 years they may get to hold a knife and get near the food. He himself described how he spent 3 years in Paris chopping onions for months at a time and taking out the trash. These build character in my opinion, old fashioned as it may sound. I get pretty annoyed at junior colleagues who demand they get glamorous projects etc without having earnt them, and when they don’t get them when they want them they get demotivated and start looking for another job, essentially confirming that they lacked the character and stamina and self-awareness to deserve to get glamorous projects. Bottom line is, it’s for their and the company’s protection, if they’d break into tears with a challenging client who has 30 minutes for us this month and doesn’t suffer fools or their time being wasted…it’s bad for us all. But they don’t get it. I mean I’ve seen junior people make VP in 10 years, and junior people remain…junior for 10 years or more, and remaining unaware that the problem is with them, not with the company.
People have been told not to panic for decades.
I don’t attribute lack of panic due to people suddenly taking to heart this message. Rather, I think conditions have been loose and there’s a wall of money out there ready to buy the dip.
The real test will come when there is no longer a wall of money bidding.
I experienced the same. I had one fresh out of university kid come to me in his first week and demand a client and a better title 
I always tested the newbies out the same way. I gave them a stack of documents to print out and assemble and staple together.
Even with this simple task, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff. If you can’t quickly and competently print and staple a few documents, well…
Finny you mention this. I did wonder whether you could codify some basic life finances into a kind of game so that you could play the game and thus develop natural instinct for correct decision making and also focus that kind of obsessive instinct into a useful life skill.
Me too. What I find interesting is that whenever there’s an economy in a game it works EXACTLY like it does in the real capitalist world. Supply and demand, scarcity, gatekeeping, inflation. I’ve debated this with my far left wing best friend who say “kids/young people are conditioned to be like this in our society so they do the same ingame”, my retort is “It’s the natural state of being, kids just figured it out better than politicians and economists did”.
EVE Online comes to mind.
2 posts were merged into an existing topic: Impact on rapidly changing US policies on investing
Reminds me of an MMO I played way back where some people used to manipulate the market by doing things like buying up all of a resource (create scarcity), holding them back until the demand got crazy and then dripping them back in at highly inflated prices. Never would have thought of doing anything like that in a videogame. There’s some real capitalist minds out there
On topic: 2 cents from a tech investor view. It has been a hell of a ride with large portions of NVDA and GOOG in my portfolio. There’s definitely a lingering fear that the AI hype may reverse. But I have made up my mind that I’d buy up even more should that happen. That way I see something motivating when things like the recent DeepSeek related selloff happen.
I think it comes down to your believe and mine is definitely that AI may be overhyped now but is going to stay long term. I use more AI than Google search these days and I think the late adopters will follow. We all see how only search can carry a giant like GOOG for decades. And that’s just a very narrow angle on AI.
So I believe 2025 will be choppy as short term expectations on AI are too high. But long term I’m not concerned in the least, I see gigantic potential for the tech.