When do we reach the bottom of the dip? (2022-24 Edition)

Bought 5.5k of VTI today, already down 1% :smiley:

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And there we go, like clockwork. :grin:

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Would you mind next time telling couple of hours before, not after?

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Luckily I took more profits today before you made your buy! :stuck_out_tongue:

I didn’t realise it was so ugly at the end of the day:

Getting paid tomorrow, settling bills and buying as usual.

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Indeed, that would be most helpful :grin:

I went back to analyze the development of my benchmark, "MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI, adjusted for CHF inflation as outlined here:

From now on, I will also comment on benchmark changes taking into account the change of purchasing power.

The inflation adjustment didn’t change much for Corona crash. It was fast and not accompanied by a surge of inflation.

The growth of the benchmark from the bottom of the Corona dip (23.03.2020) to the most recent all-times-high (16.11.2021) was 94.9% nominal CHF and 93.1% infl.adj. The inflation effect is bearable, I would say.

After that, it is very impressive to see how inflation changes the real return of the stocks market - always to the worse.

I previously defined a ‘Bear Market’ regime when the index drops more than 20% from the ATH.

In nominal terms, in 2022-2023, there was only one occasion when my benchmark went into this zone, with a minimum on 30.09.2022 (-21.9 % in nominal CHF). On inflation-adjusted basis, there were 6 occasion when the benchmark dived into a ‘Bear Market’ zone, with the following minima:

20.06.2022: -21.1%
30.09.2022: -24.2%
28.12.2022: -22.1%
13.03.2023: -22.3%
04.05.2023: -21.1%
26.10.2023: -21.5%

Spooky.

On a positive note, the rally that have started from the 26.10.2023 bottom had a consolidation phase from mid-December to mid-January. Now this rally have just finished its third month, and no correction are in sight (they are coming unexpected, anyway).

The latest maximum was on 25.01.2024, 1802.2 CHF nominal. This is a level not seen from May 2022.
On a nominal basis, it is -7.5% from ATH, +18.4% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, 3.7% YTD.

However on an inflation-adjusted basis, it is -11.5% from ATH, +16.9% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, 3.7% YTD.
Therefore, we have not gotten out of the correction regime.

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P.S. Before you ask:
The return of the same benchmark for 2023 was +10.6% in nominal CHF and +9.0% in inflation-adjusted CHF. 1.6 percent points have been eaten by the inflation.

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An update about the sentiment situation.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669662-there-are-still-too-many-non-believers

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Can you post the text? I can’t view it here.

EDIT: I managed to view it. In short: people are still too bearish and so bull run has further to go.

I largely agree with this and it has been the continuation of the story of the past few years: investors climing up the wall of worry. Of course, that wall will lead to a big fall at some point, but when that happens is an unknown.

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Yep, however last week the S&P500 Fear and Greed Index crossed into “Extreme Greed” territory. News headlines are all over the place, some are exuberant while some are predicting the next market crash. They predicted 10 out of the last 2 - or however the saying goes.

As for me, happy to be deep in the green, I will listen to uncle Warren’s advice to be fearful when others are greedy and will pool some cash. Had some big expenses early in the year, plus filling my 3A, with a few more on the way so it will happen organically anyway, even if it is TiMinG Th3 M4rk3T :stuck_out_tongue:

Are you planning to keep it in cash or convert it in other investment vehicles ?

Cash for say 3 months is my plan.

@Cortana bought this week?
My cash is ready. :rofl:

This time it was my fault. Bought heavily on Friday and Monday and the sub-sector I invested in dropped 5%+ in 2 days.

Brutal day, stocks and CHF/USD crashing :see_no_evil:

That works well for me as I have almost all in USD.

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After 3 months of going straight up, a cooling off period is both welcome and relaxing for me!

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Just checking this morning, I’m actually up in the last 24 hours! USD bonds gained relative to CHF. As I suspected, the rate of 1.20 CHFUSD in December was a great buying opportunity. It is sitting around 1.1278 now.

I’d been sitting in BIL/XBIL, but took the opportunity yesterday to convert all of these into TLT.

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669819-wall-street-lunch-january-cpi-in-focus

The odds of a rate cut in March dropped to just 5%, while the first rate cut was pushed out to June. Fed swaps pricing in less than 100 basis points, or 4 quarter-point cuts, for all of 2024. Just recently, traders had priced in six cuts.

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