When do we reach the bottom of the dip? (2022-24 Edition)

Investing / Others
800

January swiss inflation data lower than expected 1.3%

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801

Queue 3 threads about hedging to escape plumetting franc value, woe is me.

The whole CPI/PCE and Fed cutting, I stay believing Powell and Co don’t show all cards and patiently wait and will do a first 25bps cut as signal end of April. Otherwise, imho, they as so often react too slow and rate changes only slowly working itself into economy will show its ugly head by summer when strong Q4 earning numbers are gone and we end up with a 15% correction. We’ll see.

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802

Honestly these “indices” are mostly meaningless for everyday life.
Official YoY one in CH never passed 2-3% I think, but our daily CoL sure as hell went up 5-15% across key categories (rent, health insurance, food).

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803

In the end I think Fed will have to cut when the recession bites. I think the market was way too ‘optimistic’ in thinking that the cuts would come already in the first quarter and pricing in 7 cuts for 2024. Now the market had a long overdue reality check, and as typical, over-reacted.

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804

I quoted it because it was the news that caused interest rate expectations and therefore CHF FX rate to change. The interest rate change will also impact house prices and existing rental contracts

805

Who actually gives a monkey’s about if there is a recession? Either the economy is during great or not. The obsession with “recession” in the media is so tiring. Furthermore, if someone can just say “no it was not a recession” like in 2022 from some US-President, even tough the (unofficial) criteria was met, it just shows how meaningless it is. Considering that the market values the future, it appears even less relevant and would be priced in anyway. Sorry for the rant but can’t stand reporting on recession :stuck_out_tongue:

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807

It was the Uranium sector.

808

Did it? We’re almost where we were 2 days ago :stuck_out_tongue: Millennial market, throwing toys out the pram like it dropped its lollipop on the ground.

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809

4 posts were merged into an existing topic: Benchmarking The Market

813

So is now a good moment to invest my bonus?

I always invest my money as soon as it‘s available. Got unlucky more often than lucky, but there should be some reversion to mean longterm? So all-in today?

814

All-in plus margin :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

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815

Congrats on the bonus.
If I were undecided, I’d invest half of it today and decide about the rest (lump sum or DCA) in the next couple of days.
Establish investment rules for yourself regarding future bonuses.

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816

Maybe the timing of the bonus is the reason that you were unlucky more often than lucky? Of course nobody knows what would happen this year.

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818

Let’s see the pump today after NVDA’s earnings

Still not planning to buy anything for a couple of months.

819

I have considered buying NVDA yesterday, so pretty sure that the peak is close by :joy:. However, I keep saying since 2021 during the Crypto craziness that NVDA is way over priced and it has railed ever since :clown_face:

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820

These earnings gave it at least another 3 months runway in my opinion. Also important bit is the cloud service part of earnings which has skyrocketed and will boost many other sectors. Of course now greed will become even more extreme. Sitting still, on my hands, with handcuffs.

This quote is confusing me:
““Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point,” said Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang.”".

“Tipping point” basically means “point of no return”, but in my book it’s always had bad connotations, which is not what the nVidia boss is saying, obviously.

821

NYSE S&P500 10 mins in:

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822

The weird psychology in the accumulation phase:

Going down: Yeah, I’m going to be buying low! :partying_face:
Going up: Yeah I’m getting richer! :partying_face:

(Also going up but buying soon on autoinvest: why does it ALWAYS get expensive now?)

It’s not entirely rational


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823

Totally, need tricks to stay motivated while earning good money and being frugal. Very long-term benefit is not that easy to keep committed to when it can feel that one is losing comfort today, tomorrow, for a month, for six months, for a year etc.

Anything to remain motivated is golden and whoever thinks otherwise needs to better understand human psychology. Humans are anything but rational.

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824

At least you have positive emotions :sweat_smile:
For me it’s:
Going down? Oh no, I’m losing money :sob:
Going up? Oh no, I’ll have to buy high :sob:

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