That works well for me as I have almost all in USD.
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After 3 months of going straight up, a cooling off period is both welcome and relaxing for me!
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Just checking this morning, Iâm actually up in the last 24 hours! USD bonds gained relative to CHF. As I suspected, the rate of 1.20 CHFUSD in December was a great buying opportunity. It is sitting around 1.1278 now.
Iâd been sitting in BIL/XBIL, but took the opportunity yesterday to convert all of these into TLT.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669819-wall-street-lunch-january-cpi-in-focus
The odds of a rate cut in March dropped to just 5%, while the first rate cut was pushed out to June. Fed swaps pricing in less than 100 basis points, or 4 quarter-point cuts, for all of 2024. Just recently, traders had priced in six cuts.
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January swiss inflation data lower than expected 1.3%
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Queue 3 threads about hedging to escape plumetting franc value, woe is me.
The whole CPI/PCE and Fed cutting, I stay believing Powell and Co donât show all cards and patiently wait and will do a first 25bps cut as signal end of April. Otherwise, imho, they as so often react too slow and rate changes only slowly working itself into economy will show its ugly head by summer when strong Q4 earning numbers are gone and we end up with a 15% correction. Weâll see.
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Honestly these âindicesâ are mostly meaningless for everyday life.
Official YoY one in CH never passed 2-3% I think, but our daily CoL sure as hell went up 5-15% across key categories (rent, health insurance, food).
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In the end I think Fed will have to cut when the recession bites. I think the market was way too âoptimisticâ in thinking that the cuts would come already in the first quarter and pricing in 7 cuts for 2024. Now the market had a long overdue reality check, and as typical, over-reacted.
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I quoted it because it was the news that caused interest rate expectations and therefore CHF FX rate to change. The interest rate change will also impact house prices and existing rental contracts
Who actually gives a monkeyâs about if there is a recession? Either the economy is during great or not. The obsession with ârecessionâ in the media is so tiring. Furthermore, if someone can just say âno it was not a recessionâ like in 2022 from some US-President, even tough the (unofficial) criteria was met, it just shows how meaningless it is. Considering that the market values the future, it appears even less relevant and would be priced in anyway. Sorry for the rant but canât stand reporting on recession 
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It was the Uranium sector.
Did it? Weâre almost where we were 2 days ago Millennial market, throwing toys out the pram like it dropped its lollipop on the ground.
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4 posts were merged into an existing topic: Benchmarking The Market
So is now a good moment to invest my bonus?
I always invest my money as soon as itâs available. Got unlucky more often than lucky, but there should be some reversion to mean longterm? So all-in today?
All-in plus margin 
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Congrats on the bonus.
If I were undecided, Iâd invest half of it today and decide about the rest (lump sum or DCA) in the next couple of days.
Establish investment rules for yourself regarding future bonuses.
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Maybe the timing of the bonus is the reason that you were unlucky more often than lucky? Of course nobody knows what would happen this year.
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Letâs see the pump today after NVDAâs earningsâŠ
Still not planning to buy anything for a couple of months.
I have considered buying NVDA yesterday, so pretty sure that the peak is close by 
. However, I keep saying since 2021 during the Crypto craziness that NVDA is way over priced and it has railed ever since 
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These earnings gave it at least another 3 months runway in my opinion. Also important bit is the cloud service part of earnings which has skyrocketed and will boost many other sectors. Of course now greed will become even more extreme. Sitting still, on my hands, with handcuffs.
This quote is confusing me:
ââAccelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point,â said Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang.â".
âTipping pointâ basically means âpoint of no returnâ, but in my book itâs always had bad connotations, which is not what the nVidia boss is saying, obviously.