Statistics, black magic and financial mathematics

To classify the state of the stock market, as quantified by a specific index, I am going to consider these three regimes:

  • Normal State: The market is classified as in a ‘Normal State’ when the market index is less than 10% below its all-time high (ATH).

  • Correction: The market enters a ‘Correction’ phase when the index is between 10% and 20% below the ATH.

  • Bear Market: The market is in a ‘Bear Market’ regime when the index drops more than 20% from the ATH.

These regimes can be utilized, for example, to define different portfolio consumption rates, adapting them to the current market conditions.