The S&P 500 staged the kind of comeback that only comes around every half a century.
The benchmark index’s higher close yesterday pulled it out of correction territory, closing at its highest level since early August. A correction is typically defined as a 10% drop from the recent high.
The rebound took just 16 sessions, the shortest turnaround time since the 1970s, according to data from Dow Jones
In the near term, though, Citi’s quant team says more gains could be ahead due to a short squeeze
“The pace of the recovery has been rapid and appears to have caught many short holders off-guard, leaving a large amount of legacy short positions in loss," Cit’s head of quant Chris Montagu said.
“Average short losses for Nasdaq are slightly larger at 5.6%, whereas average S&P 500 short position losses are near 4.3%. Both are considerable, and a further rally could lead to increased forced covers and lend near-term support to markets.”
My benchmark’s “MSCI ACWI IMI Net total Return in CHF” pull back from 2023 maximum to October minimum was -8%, though.
The latest maximum still misses a bit for a new 2023 high.
I like ARE, too (and incidently bought my latest tranche on Nov 30 for $109.29 … … I don’t like bragging about it, though, as this will inevitably jinx the valuation since the market (timing) gods consequently punish anyone challenging them vocally).
I like ARE because
they’re still (slightly, ~5%) growing their Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO)
they’ve steadily grown their dividend since 2010 at a nice cliff (10% CAGR over 12 years, about 6% in the past 5 years), currently yielding just above 4%. Going forward I would expect them to grow the dividend at the rate they can grow AFFO, i.e. ~5%.
they seemed just about fairly valued around $110
they are a niche Office REIT that owns collaborative life science office space: them getting lumped in with the Office REIT GICS sub-industry helped with Mr. Market taking their valuation down because of the WFH-makes-office-space-superfluous narrative, while in practice the ARE tenants actually need to do most of their work in the office as that is where the lab equipment necessary for doing the work is located
I like neither HIW nor BXP, though. Even if they look undervalued both feature no (AFFO) growth and froze their dividend (admittedly probably a good idea given they can’t grow their funds from operations).
Perhaps a nice bet for the market (and/or Office REITs) bouncing back short term, but - for me at least - not a long term investment.
I dithered a bit too much on this. They are all about 20% up (or more) when I figured they were oversold. I have to agree with you on ARE and also the HIW/BXP scepticism.
I’m still don’t like buying REITs at this stage as I’d rather buy them in a post-capitulation market. But I figured that even though I feel the big crash is coming, there’s no way to really guarantee when that will come and I figured you could still earn money holding through the tough patch.
While I agree that everything is set for stocks to run up further, we also know that sentiment can also turn on a dime. But as one commentator said previously “while the music keeps playing, we have to keep dancing”.
VIX is surprisingly low given the potential for big movements in either direction.
The bottom is in. Powell just spiked the punch bowl and started the after-party. I’ve been waiting years for the melt-up to happen and it feels like Powell just fired the starting gun for the mother-of-all melt-ups. I just wish I’d closed my SPY short before his speech!
I’m just stunned. I thought he’d do his usual push back to stop markets getting ahead of themselves, but he was just limp. How can this not trigger a massive santa rally?
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… I don’t like bragging about it, though, as this will inevitably jinx the valuation since the market (timing) gods consequently punish anyone challenging them vocally).
