https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-finder
Features: Inverse
2 Likes
What a surprise! Turns out thereâs still Covid in China and the population is fed up with it. Next, the market will discover that, against all expectations, people do actually use energy during the winter and that core CPI stable at 6% for various lengths of time doesnât mean that inflation is going down no matter what the media sayâŠ
/sarcasm.
4 Likes
You donât understand! Iphones are in danger!
Like they werenât before. 
Anyway, this brings out my gambling instincts and Iâm back with a short position (still net long when all is said and done).
Not exactly low TER (which is why you should avoid it but Iâm in a playful mood tonight) but SARK could be a fun place to be in. Speaking of which, ARKK is now beaten by the S&P500 since inception.
Edit: Sorry if this sounds disrespectful for the protesters in China. They have suffered a lot and I wish them that the craziness stops.
2 Likes
Well timed 
Eh, mainly pure luck and it could totally have gone the other way but I got out yesterday at close. My guess was that today would have been a down day, so I could totally have gotten caught in it, but I didnât like the oscillating the NASDAQ composite was doing.
Iâm still globally down 25% on those gambles, and Iâm probably slowly learning that I canât profit from those but Iâll probably need some more ironing and potential losses before thatâll be truly imprinted in me.
2 Likes
I find it psychologically too hard too short, I have instead been rotating into sectors that are doing well in this general downtrend, like energy-, pharma- and insurance. I see no need to buy the whole market.
1 Like
I find it psychologically draining too. I find shorting akin to getting out of the market (selling all assets) on leverage (selling more than we actually have). Leverage removes any cap on our downside we may have had, and the upside is capped by the level of actual leverage we are willing to use. The risk profile of the investment is far, far worse than that of a long position with unlimited upside and capped downside.
I find casual shoots of âif youâre so sure of the market going down, why donât you short it?â to be off the mark. It requires more than just conviction to short, it also requires a very high willingness and ability to take risk. Not everybody (and I would guess actually very few people) have it.
I would compare it to a statement of âif you can handle the volatility of a 100% stocks position, why not take it further and bet it all on cryptos?â The two investments donât have the same risk profile. Same with shorting and sitting in cash.
4 Likes
A little off topic. There is a documentary on netflix Dirty Money â S01 E03 Drug Short.
An episode on a fund shorting valeant, quite interesting, not just the facts around valeant but all the research that went prior shorting. Plus in the US you also need to communicate what you are shorting if you are professional
3 Likes
Wasnât that Bill Ackmann?
1 Like
Nah, he lost big time, 2-3 billions. Episode summary: Dirty Money - S01 E03 Drug Short - Cadence Capital
1 Like
At least now we start to get a (tiny) yield on our cash deposit, it makes it a bit easier to wait for a better re-entry
3 Likes
No! Before July your 0 interest rate account was yielding 0.75% above the risk free rate. Now you can get the risk free rate on cash CHF deposits if you are lucky.
2 Likes
3 Likes
My benchmark (and now I add: for the accumulation phase that I am now in) remains âMSCI ACWI IMI Net total Return in CHFâ, but I have figured out how to get from MSCI these data already calculated in CHF, and thatâs what I am going to use. Hardly any difference to the course of the market described above, just different numbers.
A quick recapitulation of some key pivots.
Last ATH, 16.11.2021, already 14 months ago: 1947.97 CHF
After that my benchmark was zigzagging down in a downward channel, with lower lows and lower highs, like in a textbook of technical analysis.
3.12.2021: 1836.22 CHF, -5.7% from ATH.
3.01.2022: 1918.04 CHF, -1.5% from ATH.
25.01.2022: 1773.806 CHF, -8.9% from ATH.
9.2.2022: 1865.79, -4.2% from ATH.
8.3.2022: 1683.202 CHF, -13.6% from ATH.
Some fast forward
20.6.2022: 1573.44 CHF, -19.2% from ATH.
16.8.2022: 1748.164 CHF, -10.3% from ATH.
30.09.2022: 1522.11 CHF, -21.9% from ATH.
30.11.2022: 1683.08 CHF, -13.6% from ATH.
28.12.2022: 1561.776 CHF, -19.8% from ATH.
So, my benchmark was zigzagging in a downward channel (lower lows and lower highs) until December, and the time between two lows was around 3-4 months. However in December a new low was not lower than the previous one. All major indices show a very similar picture.
Now I can make my forecast: if in next two months we wonât get a new low lower than the Septemberâs/Octoberâs one, we might had already left the bottom behind us. It would be even better if we come back to a new high, which is higher than end of Novemberâs/Decemberâs one. That would correspond to the second zig (zig higher - zag lower - zig higher) in an upward channel, and one can expect that many technically-oriented traders and bots will jump into the party.
4 Likes
I agree: VWRL is now making higher lows, all negative news like earnings compression seem to have been priced in already and trend looks like it might reverse soon
Emerging markets and Europe look like they have already bottomed, NASDAQ might have another leg down
3 Likes
And then there are âprophetsâ like Marks that believe some âsea changeâ coming ahead still.
1 Like
Are they?
The consensus estimate on the S&P500, for instance, seems to be new record earnings this year.
1 Like
Source? 
Stocks didnât rally because financial conditions eased, financial conditions eased because the stock market rallied