My benchmark (and now I add: for the accumulation phase that I am now in) remains “MSCI ACWI IMI Net total Return in CHF”, but I have figured out how to get from MSCI these data already calculated in CHF, and that’s what I am going to use. Hardly any difference to the course of the market described above, just different numbers.
A quick recapitulation of some key pivots.
Last ATH, 16.11.2021, already 14 months ago: 1947.97 CHF
After that my benchmark was zigzagging down in a downward channel, with lower lows and lower highs, like in a textbook of technical analysis.
3.12.2021: 1836.22 CHF, -5.7% from ATH.
3.01.2022: 1918.04 CHF, -1.5% from ATH.
25.01.2022: 1773.806 CHF, -8.9% from ATH.
9.2.2022: 1865.79, -4.2% from ATH.
8.3.2022: 1683.202 CHF, -13.6% from ATH.
Some fast forward
20.6.2022: 1573.44 CHF, -19.2% from ATH.
16.8.2022: 1748.164 CHF, -10.3% from ATH.
30.09.2022: 1522.11 CHF, -21.9% from ATH.
30.11.2022: 1683.08 CHF, -13.6% from ATH.
28.12.2022: 1561.776 CHF, -19.8% from ATH.
So, my benchmark was zigzagging in a downward channel (lower lows and lower highs) until December, and the time between two lows was around 3-4 months. However in December a new low was not lower than the previous one. All major indices show a very similar picture.
Now I can make my forecast: if in next two months we won’t get a new low lower than the September’s/October’s one, we might had already left the bottom behind us. It would be even better if we come back to a new high, which is higher than end of November’s/December’s one. That would correspond to the second zig (zig higher - zag lower - zig higher) in an upward channel, and one can expect that many technically-oriented traders and bots will jump into the party.