I would like to take a moment to appreciate how masterful with speech JPow is: he has managed to sell the idea of the Fed reducing the size of its increases without the market taking that as a “pivot”, despite seemingly really wanting to take anything that passed by for it.
I find it also enlightening to remember that 1 year ago, inflation was still “transitory” and the Fed was purchasing bonds like there’s no tomorrow. We are living interesting times, indeed.
One year ago a certain country had not yet invaded another one as well…
Sure, but in Powell’s own words:
“The thing about the United States is that we also have strong… in many other jurisdictions, the principal problem really is energy. In the United States, we also have a demand issue, we’ve got an imbalance between demand and supply, which you see in many parts of the economy.”
Note that, when pointing at the imbalance, he mentions a demand issue and doesn’t point at a supply one (that would be the “also” a few words earlier).
That answer is magnificent and worth hearing in full, along with the question that triggered it. This could be used to illustrate rhetoric lessons in universities.
Edit: wrong timestamp, sorry.
The Fed’s message has resulted in Fed Funds Futures repricing higher, with the terminal rate now at 5.15% in July of 2023, up from around 5.05% for May, just yesterday. So not only are rates seen going higher, but the time to get to that terminal rate is now expected to take longer.
what happened today? +4%
CPI release, it was tamer than expected. 0.4% month over month, with core at 0.3% month over month.
Keep in mind that USD/CHF is almost down 2% though.
Yes, it sucks, but it had gone up quite a bit lately.
I find this quite insane. USD/CHF is down from 0.9974 on Monday to 0.9464 right now.
It was expected, the parabola for DXY had to break and will probably drop quickly from here, sell your USD!!!
This comes really in handy, I have a nice little USD loan with IB, I should probably start looking at paying it.
I sold half of my USDs a few days ago, but I really need to sell the other half too 
If the USD/CHF exchange rate continues to go down, your USD loan (liability) will be lower in CHF. For example, 1K USD was ~1K CHF on November 1st, and today it is ~950 CHF. So I would look to pay it if the exchange rate goes in the opposite direction, but not at this moment.
If you have USD (assets) and the USD/CHF exchange rate continues to go down, it would be better to sell them now than later.
I have some USD assets that I bought on margin. I sold a call and now I’m just waiting to be assigned. Either way I’ll just buy VT after getting assigned s I’m not paying the loan for the time being.
Except one never knows if the change of direction is going to be a sustained one.
The uptrend was quite unsustainable, but it could be just a drop and start again when the stock market goes south.
For the record, I’m capitulating as a bear: this market can be irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
It’s been an enlightening venture trying to short the market with a few funds (rouhly 25% of my liquid porftolio, 10% of my net worth) and I recommend it to anyone thinking it’s easy to do. I’ve found out it’s not and even though one can be right on the direction, the path to get there matters a lot too. What I found especially challenging is that when going short, being wrong on the long term trend means getting liquidated, whereas by getting long, our expectation is that by waiting and staying invested long enough, we should be able to recover and prosper.
Back on the boring long side of things. This cost me roughly 30% of the funds I had put at risk.
You mean, you have used inverse ETFs? Same story as with leveraged ones: I find the way they are functioning terrible. I think derivatives are good for short term bets, for example by buying an out of money put you know immediately how much you bet and potential upside can be huge. By selling calls you basically sacrifice (a part of) gains in an upside move for a guaranteed premium now. I am experimenting with short calls.
I sold CFDs on leverage (x3, x6 on high confidence very short bets) on CornèrTrader. I don’t recommend it since CFDs are not regulated and the only thing guaranteeing you’re not getting robbed (they can pretend your contract is worth any price they want if they so choose) is the probity and ability to deliver of your broker. It was a cheap and convenient way to do it and actually short whatever I wanted, though.
ProShares and Direxion have a nice range of products especially for leveraged short ETFs. You’d have to be a very confident bear for them though 
On another note: Anything you’ve got to warn us about the global stock market 
?
