And today it had hit at 18 months low 
It had helped indices in USD to reach the highest values since Octoberâs bottom, which indices in CHF havenât done yet.
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I keep playing with my benchmark. According to it, in 2022 it took longer than in 2020 to reach -20% from ATH, but the time below this level was actually shorter (well, for now). I think any broad index will show similar results.
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Now it is clear that we have passed a local maximum and seem to have started a distinct leg down.
03.02.2023: 1704.462 CHF, -12.5% from ATH, +12% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, 8.5% YTD.
The new local maximum went around 1.5% higher from the bottom than the previous one in November.
Getting into a technical analysis mode, we had hit a resistance at 50% retracement level and bounced back.
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i think we might see a 6,5% retracement (to 1590 CHF according to your calculations) before we bounce, there is quite big support level there. if that doesenât hold we will probably go down to the october lows, if that breaks we have a problem there is quite a big gap after that.
You might want to put a stoploss around there. 
I still think it doesnât look too bad, medium term trend is still up. Just ignore the FUD of the media.
Also USD is on the rise again that works in our favour as non US investors
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Usually if the DXY rises, itâs not good for equities (US) as well as for CHFUSD
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Iâll be the first to admit that Iâve been blind to the fact that bonds loosing value would endanger the banking sector and that my narrative for the current downturn had many blind spots.
Iâm bracing myself for another leg down, though have tinkered enough for my likings last year and will simply hold my allocation through the potential fall and rise this year.
Even more reasons not to trust bonds .
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The fun thing with bonds is that they are one of if not the most reliable asset available, in that the rules that govern it are set at its emission, but they are also used for a lot of things they donât do, and when it occasionally fails, we rediscover that bonds in and of themselves are not a be all end all safe haven.
Reliable =/= safe. SVB seems to have failed because of risk management, not because of bonds in and of themselves. Choosing the right assets in accordance to our goals and the risks we want to reduce or are willing to accept is the hardest part of investing, to me. I find that my biggest hurdle when investing is to fight back pride when it settles in.
Even mountain guides stay humble in regards to the mountain environment. Being humble, keeping our eyes open and staying honest with ourselves are in my opinion very difficult traits to keep, yet very essential ones when investing.
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10.3.2023: 1595.84 CHF, -18.1% from ATH, +4.8% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, 1.5% YTD, -6.5% from the previous pivot.
The pull back came later than I thought. End of January I thought my benchmark is going to peak here and pull back by 5-6% in 2-3 weeks. Instead it still went up a bit and then it took 5 weeks to decrease substantially.
Major indices donât look oversold (TradingView, stochastic RSI with the standard settings on daily close prices). I wonder if the markets are going down more and if we are going to see negative YTD changes and especially if we are going below Decemberâs minimum. Or things will calm down over the weekend and there wonât be a new substantial decrease.
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30.09.2022: 1522.11 CHF, -21.9% from ATH.
30.11.2022: 1683.08 CHF, -13.6% from ATH.
28.12.2022: 1561.776 CHF, -19.8% from ATH.
03.02.2023: 1704.462 CHF, -12.5% from ATH, +12% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, 8.5% YTD.
Looks like the minimum of the previous leg down was
13.3.2023: 1574.97 CHF, -19.1% from ATH, +3.5% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, 0.2% YTD, -7.7% from the previous pivot.
Indices looked oversold around those dates, but it still doesnât look like the leg up had definitely started. But, as we know, we canât really successfully identify a market move until it is in an advanced stage already.
However the technical setup for now still looks good. There havenât been negative YTD returns. For now major indices keep producing higher highs and lower lows. They also went shortly below the lower limit of Bollinger band and came back up. Everything looks like business as usual, no reason to panic.
I would say this is quite correct, congratulations!
9 posts were merged into an existing topic: Whatâs your (investment) strategy for 2023?
USDCHF have reached a 26-months low. Interesting. I wonder if it will drop to levels not seen since Frankenshock.
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@FunnyDjo I came across some interesting graphs regarding Japan:
Japans stock market actually recovered after 30 years with dividends reinvested. For someone accumulating and starting investing back in 1989, it wasnât that bad after 30 years.
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what a relief! 
also, the most positive reading of this story is 100% profit in 30 years. Thatâs not even a 2.5% annual compound interestâŠ
Is this inflation adjusted?
My point is why do you want to take the bet of giving 100% to 1 country (even USA) when you could diversify and avoid waiting a 30 years recovery.
It is already more than 65% of global market so at least it will rebalance his weighting automatically on VT.
