Inflation is hitting US

Historically higher inflation was generally a killer for growth stocks (e.g. tech stocks), but it wasn’t affecting that much value stocks. Very high inflation is a killer for everything except gold (and perhaps bitcoin) - as the rising costs of inputs, and need to constantly pass higher costs on clients, and the constant push of the employees for higher wages ruins the macroeconomic stability of the economy - look at any scenario of hyperinflation, like Poland in late 80s, Weimar Republic in 20s, or modern Zimbabwe. A sudden rise in inflation is also a big problem for companies because they need to instantly pay higher costs for inputs, but they aren’t prepared for passing these costs on to clients - this obviously takes time and can’t be done overnight. But I doubt we will have really bad inflation. My view is that it will be elevated for some years and this should boost value stocks and handicap growth stocks. In any case, this should be anticipated by investors and thus priced in the market. Probably we will see lower real returns in the coming years.

High inflation sucks especially for the poor who don’t have stock market investments. They usually are in the worst position to negotiate a raise (to catch up with rising prices), and their savings are getting crashed (especially with the zero interest rates on the bank deposits and low returns on government bonds). IMHO, high inflation in combination with low interest rates is a machine to exuberate wealth inequalities.

Another practical impact of inflation is that it will cause USD worth less in CHF. A practical recent example is PLN (Polish zlotys) which was about 4 PLN for 1 CHF a few months ago, but now after a few months of elevated inflation 1 CHF costs 4.5 PLN. I think in the long term similar effect will be with USD, so our investments will be worth less in CHFs. Bad news for those who plan to retire in Switzerland with USD-denominated dividends and capital gains.

PS. I elaborated a bit on inflation and money supply here:

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