I’ve seen articles stating that the inflation in the US is rising and mostly they say that it’s normal. The market doesn’t think so and it’s tanking right now. (Anyone “hoarding” ETFs?)
I wonder if someone has run some numbers to see if the inflation is rising here as well.
Anyone ? I have my expenses all tracked in sheets, but it’s too hard to really be sure. I should look into the food section and try to find the right information instead of just checking the totals.
I bought zucchinis for 0.59 CHF/kg, I am not sure there is inflation here 
To be more serious, after a negative inflation of -0.7% in 2020, there will be a positive inflation in 2020. I would be surprise if it reaches 1%. Nothing to worry here.
About the market, everybody always has a different explaination about why it is going down. Some people say it is because of inflation, other say that’s because the hedge funds are shorting the market to scary GME shareholders so that they could cover their shorts…
The Federal Statistical Office?
+0.3% YoY in April 2021
I don’t think the risk of an inflation spike in CH is as high as in the US
It’s actually 0.8% in a month and 4.2% YoY: Consumer Price Index Summary
(Edit: just realized s-g was referencing Swiss inflation data and I’m talking about the USA)
I still wonder if someone has real numbers.
I know for sure that my Health Insurance was lower last year. 100chf maybe.
Milch from 1.95 to 2.05 in two years, etc…
If you download the tables the Swiss CPI is pretty detailed:
I wouldn’t necessarily trust anecdotical evidence instead…
Milk is produced in Switzerland, which is the category of product that didn’t go down last year.
Health insurance doesn’t get more expensive because health is more expensive, it gets more expensive because the population is aging, meaning that each person need more treatments in a year in average.
Polyethylene pipes prices have risen quite a bit, we’ve received notice that steel prices would be risen too. I’d say commodities are on the rise, which should affect construction prices.
My health insurance premiums are making big jumps every year despite the news repeatedly saying it’s moderate.
Nothing like the U.S. (we haven’t put free money in the pockets of everybody) but some kind of inflation is happening here too.
you can switch health insurance every year. so we did and save around 1k chf yearly.
There’s always the question about how much switzerland itself can influence its inflation.
But as far as it can: the SNB/Thomas Jordan really dislikes inflation, so I wouldn’t be too worried about “swiss-influenced” inflation becoming too high.
For an interesting, shortish, german interview about the SNB possibly even influencing a inflation rate too low:
Quite the contrary in my opinion. I think by the time next months numbers come out the USA will be at 6% YoY.
1 Liter? If so, where do you pay as much as 2.05 ?
To avoid the April 2020 anomaly, you can take the average over two years: square_root((index in April 2021) / (index in April 2019)) - 1. You get an annual 2.23% price inflation over both years - pretty standard in the US.
| 2-year, annualized | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2.20% | 2.41% | 2.74% | 2.67% | 2.64% | 2.84% | 2.90% | 2.84% | 3.04% | 3.00% | 3.03% | 3.04% | 2.78% |
| 2001 | 3.23% | 3.38% | 3.34% | 3.17% | 3.40% | 3.49% | 3.19% | 3.06% | 3.05% | 2.79% | 2.67% | 2.47% | 3.10% |
| 2002 | 2.43% | 2.33% | 2.20% | 2.45% | 2.39% | 2.15% | 2.09% | 2.26% | 2.08% | 2.08% | 2.05% | 1.96% | 2.21% |
| 2003 | 1.87% | 2.06% | 2.24% | 1.93% | 1.62% | 1.59% | 1.79% | 1.98% | 1.92% | 2.03% | 1.98% | 2.13% | 1.93% |
| 2004 | 2.26% | 2.33% | 2.38% | 2.25% | 2.55% | 2.69% | 2.55% | 2.41% | 2.43% | 2.61% | 2.64% | 2.57% | 2.47% |
| 2005 | 2.45% | 2.35% | 2.44% | 2.90% | 2.93% | 2.90% | 3.08% | 3.15% | 3.61% | 3.77% | 3.49% | 3.34% | 3.02% |
| 2006 | 3.48% | 3.30% | 3.26% | 3.53% | 3.48% | 3.42% | 3.66% | 3.73% | 3.37% | 2.82% | 2.71% | 2.98% | 3.31% |
| 2007 | 3.03% | 3.00% | 3.07% | 3.06% | 3.43% | 3.50% | 3.25% | 2.89% | 2.41% | 2.41% | 3.13% | 3.31% | 3.04% |
| 2008 | 3.17% | 3.22% | 3.38% | 3.25% | 3.43% | 3.85% | 3.97% | 3.66% | 3.84% | 3.60% | 2.68% | 2.07% | 3.34% |
| 2009 | 2.13% | 2.11% | 1.78% | 1.57% | 1.41% | 1.75% | 1.68% | 1.89% | 1.78% | 1.72% | 1.45% | 1.40% | 1.72% |
| 2010 | 1.32% | 1.19% | 0.96% | 0.74% | 0.36% | -0.19% | -0.44% | -0.18% | -0.08% | 0.49% | 1.50% | 2.11% | 0.64% |
| 2011 | 2.13% | 2.13% | 2.50% | 2.70% | 2.79% | 2.31% | 2.42% | 2.45% | 2.50% | 2.34% | 2.26% | 2.23% | 2.40% |
| 2012 | 2.28% | 2.49% | 2.67% | 2.73% | 2.63% | 2.61% | 2.51% | 2.73% | 2.93% | 2.84% | 2.57% | 2.35% | 2.61% |
| 2013 | 2.26% | 2.42% | 2.06% | 1.68% | 1.53% | 1.70% | 1.68% | 1.61% | 1.59% | 1.56% | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.76% |
| 2014 | 1.59% | 1.55% | 1.49% | 1.51% | 1.74% | 1.91% | 1.98% | 1.61% | 1.42% | 1.31% | 1.28% | 1.13% | 1.54% |
| 2015 | 0.74% | 0.55% | 0.72% | 0.87% | 1.04% | 1.09% | 1.08% | 0.94% | 0.81% | 0.91% | 0.91% | 0.76% | 0.87% |
| 2016 | 0.64% | 0.49% | 0.39% | 0.46% | 0.49% | 0.56% | 0.50% | 0.63% | 0.71% | 0.90% | 1.10% | 1.40% | 0.69% |
| 2017 | 1.94% | 1.87% | 1.61% | 1.66% | 1.45% | 1.31% | 1.28% | 1.50% | 1.85% | 1.84% | 1.95% | 2.09% | 1.69% |
| 2018 | 2.29% | 2.47% | 2.37% | 2.33% | 2.34% | 2.25% | 2.33% | 2.32% | 2.25% | 2.28% | 2.19% | 2.01% | 2.29% |
| 2019 | 1.81% | 1.87% | 2.11% | 2.23% | 2.29% | 2.26% | 2.38% | 2.22% | 1.99% | 2.14% | 2.11% | 2.10% | 2.13% |
| 2020 | 2.02% | 1.93% | 1.70% | 1.16% | 0.95% | 1.15% | 1.40% | 1.53% | 1.54% | 1.47% | 1.61% | 1.82% | 1.52% |
| 2021 | 1.94% | 2.01% | 2.08% | 2.23% | 1.64% |
2Liters. I mostly buy the big ones.
So they say, I don’t think it’s the whole story. We had YoY inflation in January, February and March as well and not just April. They handed out money and produced less goods.
Yes, I truly think that and I’m positioned accordingly. Not cash though.
Granted, this is market timing …
Have a look at VTIP, it’s US treasury bonds “protected” for inflation and has done its job quite well since end of last year. I nearly regret having sold them last year 
Yeah mostly precious metals right now because I feel like it has a great risk-reward ratio right now. A little bit of mining stocks, but only a little because that seemingly behaves similar to a leveraged precious metals position and they’re already up a lot.
If you want to play this and have less conviction in the timing and think it could be 3 years to a crash, you could get some emerging market equities too but I find it tough to do stock-picking in those areas. The Fundsmith Emerging* Equities Trust got mentioned in this forum, EP Emerging MarketsSmall Companies Fund (EPASX) is another option.
Not financial advice!
Edit: *or not Emerging, see comment from Barto below.
I’m not sure, if you could get these from switzerland:
I’m assuming this is swiss milk.
One reason for this price increase is probably the restaurants being closed. This shifted the demand from foreign dairy products (which the restaurants often use) towards domestic dairy products (most Swiss buy swiss milk if they choose intentionally).
This effect is especially apparent in butter. Usually, almost all butter in Migros/Coop is swiss except during christmas time, when demand outstrips supply. Since the closing of restaurants, most “generic” butter brands in stores are sourced from the EU. The swiss brands in turn are charging a premium.
Good ft article if you can get past the paywall
https://amp.ft.com/content/7f022fcd-9925-4eaf-8f1f-e409b6c4a91b
« In an environment of firmer growth and moderate inflation pressure, equities will benefit, led by companies that have earnings more influenced by the economic cycle. Investors also will seek companies that have the ability to pass on higher prices to customers in the near term and offset a squeeze on profit margins »
« Assessing almost 50 years of data, a portfolio holding equities and bonds underperforms during bouts of elevated inflation, while real assets including inflation-linked bonds and commodities prosper »
I’m sticking with the « companies that have ability to pass on higher prices » approach via Fundsmith equity fund - not Fundsmith emerging markets trust