I went all in as the crypto part of my portfolio grew from 2% to 30% or more. Maybe re-balancing into the traditional ETF would have been a safer option. I did some risk assessment and for me the risk was worth to take it. Today, the amount I put into crypto I hold as CHF (and a little more). So if cryptos burst to 0 - which I don’t think it will happen - I would have lost a part of the performance of 2021 of the traditional portfolio.
Beside the talks about adoption and use cases, what do I expect for the further run of cryptos price wise? Will the bear market start in the next few months? Maybe. Where’s the floor? Will BTC go to 3.5k as it did in 2019? I don’t think so. It could go more to 20k. Anyway, I’ll buy those prices in expectation of the next bull run. And if I’m really wrong, I’ll go back into ETF in few years. It’s a risk, but I’ll take it again.
If tether is a scam, how would they exit it? Andy why?
Can they even exit scam at this point?
Wouldnt they just buy all the btc/eth etc at every possible price even if they know the price can crash 80-90% before USDT is going bust? Itn’t it better for them (and the exchanges) to keep the thing running?
You have not been able to articulate a single counter-argument that what was said to you in the thread appart from “at the end I don’t give a f.ck” but you are able to predict the floor of a highly irrational market. Sounds legit.
I have a small part of my portfolio in crypto so I’m not spitting on the technology. But seeing overblown passion with a clear lack of technical understanding or big picture is a scary prospect. And I would venture to say that you are not an exception in the crypto community. That scares me.
Kudos and well done in the returns you made, no one should criticise you for whatever risk you took since it has worked out. It seems the trick is to go into this with eyes open, ride the wave and bank some profits along the way, which is what I understand you have done.
Regards the long term future, the video from Dogecoin millionaire above summarizes to me what’s going on: pump to people so they buy at a higher price than you bought, play it forward, that way we all make money. Perhaps it is less blatant on BTC than Doge but the end result is the same. And it’s similar to what happened on Gamestop.
My other observation is that the people doing the pumping either have a vested interest (sales people keeping most of their skin out of the game) or don’t have a grasp of the basics of money. Both are big red flags for me
I’m no fan of inflation and expansionary monetary policies (I don’t agree on that one with mainstream economics), but nevertheless, the situation is more complicated than your short-term chart is presenting. A better chart showing the relationship between inflation and growth of money supply is here:
Stocks aren’t a good hedge against high inflation, and if we have one, things will get complicated. It makes perfect sense to invest in gold or bitcoin or other (scare) alternative assets in such an environment (or in anticipation of such an environment). It is not clear however that we will have such a situation - it might be better to prepare for elevated inflation that should boost the valuation of value stocks and lower the valuation of growth stocks (at least that’s what historically has happened).
People are often confusing a lot of stuff in monetary policy - they think that increasing liquidity (QE programs) or lowering interest rates is a direct equivalent of radically increasing money supply and this, in turn, is an equivalent of rising inflation to unsustainable levels. It’s a wrong assumption because all these things are related indirectly and depend on a lot of other factors.
My personal view is that we will have a period of elevated inflation (basically a few percent) but most likely below levels that are dangerous to economic growth and stocks - and that’s why I stick to VT, but I might buy more small-cap value stocks (that I already tilted in my portfolio).
Except for people working in crypto startups, I don’t know anyone to be paid in cryptos. So in effect, a guy gets a salary in fiat money, converts into btc, orders online something, and pays for it in btc, and then the shop converts it back to fiat currency. What a marvelous system.
All I see are trolls saying “because I don’t see a use case for me, it must be used by gamblers and criminals”. Either it is dishonesty, fine some of you are funny, or you just fail to understand which starts to be concerning in view of all the times we shared uses cases with you…
But you are right! Only gamblers and no use cases, including:
People in Venezuela, Turkey, Bolivia, Argentina, etc. fighting inflation
People in Lebanon having their saving frozen in banks
Financing dissidents in Hong Kong
Banking the people in El Salvador
Removing fees in international remittance
Helping managed energy grid in Texas or Sweden
Corporate treasuries for Tesla, Square, Microstrategy, etc.
What would Square and Visa and Mastercard know about payment servicing? And Fidelity and Goldman Sachs about finance??? All Criminals! …Well for Goldman Sachs maybe indeed…you get a point.
So. Which one don’t you understand exactly? Are you able to step out of your shoes for a second here?
Another example that you are not following:
The beauty of the open-source system: On-chain analysis. For instance, you could find that 66% of coins purchased have not moved in the last 12 months. No moved = not being traded by the criminal speculators you have in mind.
Inflation is theft, no matter how you turn it. Your future purchasing power, which has been taxed already at least 3 times (revenue, wealth, VAT, etc.), should not finance government debt that you have no control over. Why shall I trust incompetent and corrupt governments over mathematic and physics?
You are missing the point…Bitcoin = technology
Anyway, I have not a single doubt that one day you will be using bitcoin; the only question is a what price you will have purchased it. Good luck!
I don’t think it’s only used by criminals. I think it’s used on daily basis mostly by criminals and traders/gamblers - I don’t see anyone else using it for payments. You’re right that there are many people around the world who might use it as an inflation hedge (store of value), especially in troubled countries - although I’m not sure how big this market really is. I’d love to see some statistics on that.
In any case, even if 66% of the bitcoin buyers aren’t selling it (would love to see a source of this information), I wonder how they will behave in a major economic crash and panic. People are keeping it because the price goes up, so they are extrapolating the past returns and there’s a high expectation the trend will continue. The question is - how long it will grow and what happens when it stops growing. Ultimately the only reason why Bitcoin is worth anything is that there are people who want to buy it at higher and higher prices. Once the demand stops growing, the price should stop growing too and it’s very likely it will start falling as holders will sell it - who will continue keeping it if the price will stand in place? Traders most likely will be less appealed too. In other words, Bitcoin is a store of value, but it’s a classical greater-fool store of value.
This mechanism is not very different from growth stocks during bull and bear markets. In the late 90s, people were saying silly stuff about tech stocks, and after the dot-com crash, they had to wait 10 years to recover the value of their investments. I think Bitcoin has a very large chance of repeating this scenario.
So basically if only 6% of transactions in the crypto world are from crypto-to-crypto, then it means that most of the transactions are cryptos being bought and sold in fiat currencies. This clearly shows that people are buying/selling it to either trade or hold for price appreciation, and not to pay for groceries. As long as there’s high volatility this will attract traders, whereas as long as the price goes up, this will attract holders - and they constitute 94% of the transactions.
Agreed, there may be “use cases” for the population of these countries.
But the dissidents in HK are just another example of illicit financing for criminals. Cause that’s most probably what they are - in the eyes of the local and/or Chinese government.
The others are all absolute shithole countries (strictly) “monetarily” speaking. They prove little to nothing with regards to global adoption of Bitcoin.
I am sure that some such developing countries have had great monetary inventions, courageous and innovative monetary (and fiscal or tax) policy in the past that we have never heard of in the developed world. Yet they’ve been irrelevant for countries with stable currencies, exchange rates and economies.
Wrong.
Bitcoin is marketing name or brand for a digital “currency” that’s based on blockchain technology. Bitcoin itself can easily copied, replicated, forked - and it has been. Often with even more advanced blockchain “technology”.
I have little doubt that blockchain technology is only in its infancy and is here to stay. It will have it’s future uses and application. But Bitcoin? It may be here to stay as some sort of store of value (though probably highly volatile, which it is today already) but I doubt it will be very relevant for payments.
The technical merits for payment processing are doubtful - and the regulation of it has only begun. Some countries will outlaw it.
The nice thing is that I won’t have missed anything, if it’s a store of value or a currency I can just use it. That’s it. (My investments are in productive assets and myself)
Though I probably shouldn’t wish that because I’m not sure if I’d survive the ensuing economical crisis, the next time that there’s a shock and money supply needs to be adjusted but that’s no longer possible.
I find it hard to believe you can fight inflation by buying something that can swing so brutally up or down in value (lately mostly up, I grant you that). But then again, in these countries the fiat currency is no better at the moment.
Luckily mathematicians and physicists don’t set economic policy without considering another science, economics, which takes into account human behaviour
By reading and partipating to this forum, you confirm you have read and agree with the disclaimer presented on http://www.mustachianpost.com/
En lisant et participant à ce forum, tu confirmes avoir lu et être d'accord avec l'avis de dégagement de responsabilité présenté sur http://www.mustachianpost.com/fr/
Durch das Lesen und die Teilnahme an diesem Forum bestätigst du, dass du den auf http://www.mustachianpost.com/de/ dargestellten Haftungsausschluss gelesen hast und damit einverstanden bist.
