Future of Bitcoin

I’m no fan of inflation and expansionary monetary policies (I don’t agree on that one with mainstream economics), but nevertheless, the situation is more complicated than your short-term chart is presenting. A better chart showing the relationship between inflation and growth of money supply is here:


(Source: M2 Money Supply Growth vs. Inflation - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends )

Stocks aren’t a good hedge against high inflation, and if we have one, things will get complicated. It makes perfect sense to invest in gold or bitcoin or other (scare) alternative assets in such an environment (or in anticipation of such an environment). It is not clear however that we will have such a situation - it might be better to prepare for elevated inflation that should boost the valuation of value stocks and lower the valuation of growth stocks (at least that’s what historically has happened).

People are often confusing a lot of stuff in monetary policy - they think that increasing liquidity (QE programs) or lowering interest rates is a direct equivalent of radically increasing money supply and this, in turn, is an equivalent of rising inflation to unsustainable levels. It’s a wrong assumption because all these things are related indirectly and depend on a lot of other factors.

My personal view is that we will have a period of elevated inflation (basically a few percent) but most likely below levels that are dangerous to economic growth and stocks - and that’s why I stick to VT, but I might buy more small-cap value stocks (that I already tilted in my portfolio).

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