Chronicles of fat years [2024-2027 Edition]

There are smaller exchanges still open till 10pm, exact time when New York closes. Like Gettex Munich. So prices should still be updated accordingly I think. Maybe not a CHF ticker though, haven’t checked.

There is an “adjustment for dividends”, which is not the same. But I use it as a short term (days and weeks) indicator to watch 3+% movements, and if there is a 0.5% hiccup once per 3 months, I think it’s OK.

VT in CHF is also not that precise. It is not clear which exactly FX rates TradingView applies. If you change the interval, values like intraday highs and lows are slightly changing. But, it’s good enough for an overview.

P.S. Concerning watching VT movements, although I am not zen enough to not look at all, I manage to not do anything else (like, check the benchmark and calculate the portfolio size) if VT (in USD or CHF, not so important) remains within the Bollinger Bands.

1 Like

What I’d like to have/see/play around with is index data including dividends in CHF, corrected and not corrected for inflation, for as many years as possible, preferably both with and without EM, and preferably per month.

Would one need to get MSCI World and ACWI index values, USD exchange rates and LIK separately and then build a chart? Where do you get your info from?

MSCI already provides indices in CHF.
If you want to research long-term development (I want to but have no time), MSCI World is the longest-running global stocks index.

All indices are here:

Select an index, it will open a graph.
Select the interval of interest, Index Level, Frequency.
Leave currency USD at this stage.
Update the graph.

Now a tricky part.
Switch currency to CHF.
Press “Update”.
You get an error message.
Scroll up and find a “Download data” field above the plot.
Download this file and you get your data in CHF as a table.

LIK is here

2 Likes

Thank you. Now what would make most sense here, selecting the Net or Gross variant? As Swiss investors, we get WHT back, but only of US titles. So Net just to be on the safe side?

You refer to the Level 1 + level 2 withholding taxes, but there is also the personal income tax. So, I use Net, because it is the most realistic of these three, I find.

I will repeat again that I don’t claim precision in measuring global markets. All these 0.1% changes is my personal indulgence in calculating things. The employed model, a “translation” of, say, underlying physical/economic system (global stocks market) into a quantifiable property (index) hardly justifies such precision.

4 Likes

So when do we change the topic title? :joy:

3 Likes

It was misspelt from the beginning and was supposed to say Chronicles of the flat years [2024-2027 Edition]:wink:

3 Likes

So. Is it time to panic yet?

3 Likes

Nah, just a couple of drops of blood in the streets …

On My Period Time Of The Month GIF

Edit: Oh, and you mean panic buy, right?

1 Like

1000084595

3 Likes

Not really panic buy, but I thought yesterday after the VT drop it would be a good moment to add a bit of an extra boost.

1 day later I’m humbled again, and realize that I will never be made to be a day trader. :clown_face::sweat_smile:

7 Likes

I’m thinking the opposite and wondering whether panic will soon set in and it would be better to sell early.

I’m still overweight my equity allocation (70/30 instead of 60/40).

1 Like

We have a big double whammy going on as well.

CHF up like crazy +1.5% just today.

+5% over the last month

1 Like

The small pull back is too shallow for CAOS to be profitable, but my INTC puts and bearish SPX futures have kept me in the green the last few days.

1 Like

Yeah, annoyingly, I had converted funds into CHF cash but then had a change of heart at exactly the wrong time and moved it into CAOS and bond ETFs.

That’s why I think it’s better to invest in chunks instead of lump sum (a comment I already made for @st.huck the other day on thread Starting Out at 40).

This works for the psychology of my simple mind, at least.*


* Tested as freshly as in the past week or two:

I sold off some Broadcom in early July (it’s dropped since) and some Iron Mountain in late July (it’s gained since). I ended up having mid 5 figures of cash to deploy.
It felt temping to just spend it all right away on my favorite companies on my current shopping list, but I’ve since gradually only deployed maybe about 1/5 to 1/4 of the cash. I feel happy to still have a bunch of dry powder left, especially if @PhilMongoose turns out to be right …

Either way, I’ll just keep buying – BTW, has anyone here read the book? –


either averaging down or averaging up.

5 Likes

And here’s a more serious reply on whether it’s time to panic.

Check out this graph by Chartr (featured by Ben Carlson on his awesome blog here):

We haven’t seen many 2% daily moves in the S&P 500 this year.

Actually, just one up on Feb 22, and perhaps – well, it looks like probably now – one down today.

This of course still doesn’t answer whether it’s time to panic: you could argue for 2024 being statistically (well, ok, big word given the sample size …) abnormally, ahem, chill and today being the start of the correction for more 2% down days to come … or today is just one dot to the left for 2024 to … counter balance the one dot to the right we had earlier this year. :wink:

2 Likes

Dunno, I made a deliberate decision to pause buying back in late May, to build up my emergency cash position. Now I have a few 1000s lying around which I am resisting to do anything with and feel fine about it.

I feel VERY fine that at the same time I made another deliberate decision to switch all my accumulating ETFs to distributing ones, first decent chunk of dirty dividends coming in September, let’s see what the market will be like then.

Still pretty considerably in the green YTD.

UBS seems to think the S&P500 will make 5900 this year, by the way.

1 Like

Curveball:

I did a bunch of really complicated and sophisticated statistical analysis on how the number of daily posts in this topic and the VIX are correlated.

Math Equations GIFs | Tenor

You will be surprised to see this surprising yet very interesting result:


(X axis: measure for the market volatility; Y axis: measure for the number of posts in this topic)

I’ll see myself out.

7 Likes