Chronicles of 2025

[almi]

It is/was a valid strategy, if you can create money out of the blue (or if you feel more risky than before).

@almi

Scenario 4 (inspired by @TeaGhost): Cool-Off Buy-the-Dip

• follow the baseline scenario, but if there is a >=2% drop of VT on one day, it waits until at least 3 continuous days there is no more than a 0.2% downturn per day (measure of reduced volatility); if this is the case, buy in with 1000 $
• if this becomes the case but the price is already higher than before the drop (e.g. one day after a -2% you get a +2.2% rebound), it ignores the event and continues with the baseline investing
• max 1 additional event/month (max 2000$ investing/month)

@almi

Results
All results here are only about % return. Absolute return varies due to different amount invested.
Note, for baseline, the return of investment in % would be the same if I invest 1000$ or e.g. 2000$/month (corresponding to 240 buy-events, but 2 on the same day; disregarding fees).

• Baseline - Average 10-y return: 60.7% Std: 14.9% Buy-events (average): 120
• Immediate Buy-the-Dip - Average 10-y return: 63.5% Std: 15.8% Buy-events (average): 160
• Short-Delayed Buy-the-Dip - Average 10-y return: 63.5% Std: 16.2% Buy-events (average): 175
• Cool-Off Buy-the-Dip - Average 10-y return: 62.2% Std: 15.3% Buy-events (average): 131
• Baseline 50-50 Dip - Average 10-y return: 60.7% Std: 14.9% Buy-events (average): 160
• Hardcore Buy-the-Dip - Average 10-y return: 60.6% Std: 14.9% Buy-events (average): 120