Chronicles of fat years [2024-2027 Edition]

Investing / Others
201

Did anypne compare VT with VWRL for lets say the last 14-30 days? There shouldnt be many dividens (aka limited tax drag) in this short period. TER Delta / tracking difference is as well small over such short time.

So that would be ideal to see if the Delta in VT‘s ~98% of market cap vs. vWRL‘s ~90% was a material difference… so far, I assume it was not.

Edit: just reviewed FTSE‘s Index performance:

  • FTSE all world in 1M: 2.57%
  • FTSE Small Cap in 1M: 3.06%
  • FTSE Global All Cap: 2.79%

Looks like FTSE Small Cap is somewhat, but not uber relevant. Pitty that we can’t invest into it.

202

I think better comparison should be VT vs IMID. Both of them have most of the world’s market underneath them.

Maybe that give better insights

Over the 1 month period IMID had a better outcome vs VWCE. 3.37% vs 2.92% (USD terms)

203

@Dr.PI Are we still in Plus after today? :skull::joy:

204

It might be good to have a link to the chart in the OP so we can follow.

I’m on vacation now and was actually up for the day and so it was only now when kids are in bed and I’m seeing in detail what happened in the market that I see what a blood bath it was today.

Still, it is well within the normal bounds of a “pull back within a bull market”.

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205

CHF going up quite a but hurts double today for portfolio value.

Good day for accumulators though :rocket:

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206

VTI doing -1.5% is a blood bath? :smile:

(I know I know, you’re talking about individual (tech) stocks, but still a handful of % only, given their pumps in the last 6m)

207

I don’t know about you, but I am still in :switzerland:

208

Small correction → toys maniacally being thrown out the pram.

The perennial optimist in me wants to say that when earnings are actually missed the market will react more rationally than proper bloodbath but the misanthropic side says “humans are cancer, when nvidia misses earnings prepare to see 20-30% drops in everything because humans”.

209

stop watching the market on a daily basis, start watching on a monthly basis only… we are still green - deep green.

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210

Fun fact, I am on holiday and often away from technology (yes, even my phone) so I don’t watch the market - it’s so liberating - only saw it yesterday because the news made headlines.

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211

IMG_4214
IMG_42141179×1250 140 KB

Now add CHF appreciation on top and we are quite red on a monthly basis.

212

IMG_3924
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This might be best representation for CHF perspective.
Accumulating all world ETF in CHF (SSAC)

Right now it’s >5% down versus last high.
But it’s still >16% up 2024 YTD.

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213

Agree with your view, like it. Only suggestion - stop reading news that mention anything around Stock Market levels. There’s other news out there. If I didn’t see this post, I wouldn’t have noticed that things had gone up or down…

Wrong asset allocation…

In all seriousnes. Untill it was clear who would hold the bucket on the crowdstrike fuck-up - there may be a prolonged sidewards/down pressure on tech shares. Its not nescecarily crowdstrike that goes belly up, they probably know what they put in their contracts. But some IT/Business service providers that integrated Crowdstrike into their solutions, they may face claims for damages worth a few billions. This all in a weak summer market with low volumes and analyst coverage…

What to do now? Don’t watch the news, don’t buy but as well don’t sell… and see how the situation presents itself by the end of August. What we see now is short term volatility that has no meaning whatsoever.

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214

I‘m not comcerned, was mainly shit talking here for entertainment :slight_smile:

Nothing changes for me, I just keep buying and now it‘s cheaper, so actually a win.

Also I have a very different asset allocation than VT, VT is just the representation for the market to talk about.

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215

what a misleading title, my stonks are worth nothing now, ban pls

Just kidding. Hooray, cheap stocks!

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216

Don’t buy? I surely keep the regular investments continuing also this month and take this dip as an opportunity.

If I don’t watch the news, don’t buy and don’t sell I become Olaf Scholz with his Savingsaccount-Approach. :wink:

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217

I agree, I meant “don’t tactically buy”. Keep proceeding as per your long term strategy but don’t do anything. No buying more than you otherwise would - no selling.

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219

Benchmark update.

My benchmark of the global stocks market is "MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI. To adjust it for the inflation, I divide its value in CHF by the value of “Landesindex der Konsumentenpreise (LIK)” (“Swiss CPI”) for the previous month.

The latest ATH of 2121.76 CHF nominal was reached on 16.07.2024. It moved +6.4% (both nominal and inflation-adjusted) from the previous lowest point on 4.06.2024. The YTD gain was +22.1% in nominal CHF, +20.3% in inflation-adjusted CHF.

As per yesterday, 25.07.2024 my benchmark have declined to 2001.52 CHF nominal, -5.7% from ATH (both nominal and inflation-adjusted). We have therefore entered the “Mild Correction” regime.

Nevertheless, the YTD gain is currently +15.1% in nominal CHF, +13.4% in inflation-adjusted CHF.

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220

OK, I will try to see how I can put my table online.

Yes, this is a good idea. Personally, as a short-term indicator, I prefer VT in CHF, because European stock exchanges are closing before the major part of US trading takes place. And we know which country has the largest share of the global market.

This can be done with TradingView:

VT-CHF-240726
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As you can see, it has dived below the lower Bollinger band. There is a good chance for a rebound, I would say.

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221

Thanks for sharing
Does this also have an option to have total return chart? To account for dividend?