Chronicles of 2025

[almi]

@almi

Results
All results here are only about % return. Absolute return varies due to different amount invested.
Note, for baseline, the return of investment in % would be the same if I invest 1000$ or e.g. 2000$/month (corresponding to 240 buy-events, but 2 on the same day; disregarding fees).

• Baseline - Average 10-y return: 60.7% Std: 14.9% Buy-events (average): 120
• Immediate Buy-the-Dip - Average 10-y return: 63.5% Std: 15.8% Buy-events (average): 160
• Short-Delayed Buy-the-Dip - Average 10-y return: 63.5% Std: 16.2% Buy-events (average): 175
• Cool-Off Buy-the-Dip - Average 10-y return: 62.2% Std: 15.3% Buy-events (average): 131
• Baseline 50-50 Dip - Average 10-y return: 60.7% Std: 14.9% Buy-events (average): 160
• Hardcore Buy-the-Dip - Average 10-y return: 60.6% Std: 14.9% Buy-events (average): 120

We haven’t yet reached the -2% dip used in the calculations above, but if we do, it’s at least historically not disadvantageous to play some immediate buy-the-dip market timing*.

(*With the money that should in theory already be invested ).