When you say rolling, what’s the metric you use?
The 5% I stated was actually real number for 20 year CAGR. I calculated it some time back based on 35 year history.
That’s what I meant, I ask chatGPT
to do 10-year rolling but 20 is even more robust.
I see. We use tax, tolls and subsidies to protect our cows, Trump uses it to protect his friends. I think Brasil did not have a negative trading balance with the U.S.A. but Trump uses it to “stop the witch hunt of Bolsonaro”.
Trump is using US state power, which he neither built nor added to, to strong-arm countries to do what he, personally, wants. No matter how small or petty.
Anyone who doesn’t agree is a traitor/enemy of The People. Authoritarian playbook right there. Quite simply “all pigs have the same nose” as we say in Greece, doesn’t matter if it’s nazi or commie, same shit.
Good thing nobody is immortal. As I said previously, there’s a lot of scheisse to flush in the world, and will be flushed in the next 10-15 years.
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OK, in case of Switzerland it is more “all cows have the same nose”. 
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Here is the post Rolling
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EU 30% Tariffs as per letter. Axios reports
Liberation day tariffs were set at 20%
After negotiation, tariffs are set to 30%
Looks like the best way for EU is to stop negotiation & just apply counter tariffs like China did. That tends to work better.
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Sigh, wonder if Monday will have some nice buying opportunities …
Depends if there is nice phone call tomorrow and new policy will be announced.
Although part of this news was already hinted, so maybe this is priced in
Yeah, we always have the immediate TACO upside risk.
On the other side, something is always priced in, but only according to the probability, so if an event happens/doesn’t happen and hence the probability with the new knowledge horizon snaps to 0/100% we might still see some moves.
Would be helpful if we knew which tariffs at which probabilities were priced in though 
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The erratic capitalization, punctuation and language make me really wonder if Trump got in the trouble of (ghost)writing it himself. Then again Trump’s unlikely to know what the word “engendered” means.
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China deal is a framework only and no real deal. Most Chinese goods cannot be replaced so basically a tax for Americans without and job creation. Same goes for UK deal. Vietnam is not actually confirming if they have a deal or not.
It’s becoming clear that most trading partners are not interested in one sided deals. Time is running out. So either white house needs to abandon the tariff policy or stick to Aug 1 deadline. Since Trump doesn’t like the TACO term, maybe he will be forced to stick to his deadline.
Otherwise their posts will only have one utility - fuel for memes.
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And market manipulation to some extent.
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Breaking -: The big announcement from US today includes two things
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US will NOT contribute financially to Ukraine support anymore. They will “support” by selling the equipment to Europe who will buy for Ukraine. Effectively Europe needs to fund any new equipment and US will sell them.
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Secondary tariffs for Russia in 50 days
I think basically the #1 is the main announcement. In summary US will only be selling weapons from now on
Most likely it’s called BIG because US Maga base doesn’t want to be involved in foreign wars.
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If Europe would seize Russian assets on EU accounts (not just their interest) it would be very ironic to see that this money directly leads to profit for Trump. 
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Whatever would be source. The profit will be for US arms manufacturers.
We have to give it to Trump. He said he doesn’t want to pay for Ukraine war anymore. And he wouldn’t . In the meantime , they have this rare earth deal for past support too.
Truly Transactional Geo politics
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I really hope now that EU is paying, they will call the shots and try to bring an end by starting to have diplomatic relations too. We cannot have 5-10 year war.
How will they call the shots? Sounds like it passes the buck to Europe to become the bag guy towards Ukraine, and possibly further destabilise Europe because ruzzian assets (of which there are many in many countries) will use their vote in various EU parliaments to say “we don’t want to pay”.
Admittedly it IS clever, unscrupulous and ruthless, maybe Europe could learn a thing or two about how to be tough because we’ve clearly forgotten.
Edit: market doesn’t seem to be minding the tariffs announced on the EU, Canada, the moon etc. Also, so he’s proposing to buy stuff from Ruzzia, just it’ll cost more to Americans. The handlers must be happy indeed.
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In Bloomberg they have this analyst who was saying there are two different trades going on these days
- US underperformance
- Sell America
As per him #2 is tactical and would mainly be used to reduce overexposure to US stocks which many foreigners have got used to.
#1 is long term and will continue for years because consistent over performance of US is not sustainable. In addition as rest of the world is forced to slowly make new supply chain strategies, this would be bullish for ex-US.
First time I hear someone separating these two items.
I meant some months back Europe was removed from the negotiating process. But now US is not even involved so I guess Europe should be the one pushing for a resolution. All wars come to end by agreement and not by battlefield victory unless a very big player joins the war. I don’t see it happening. Strengthening Ukraine is one thing but continuing to fight forever is not very wise in my opinion.
The issue is who from Europe can actually even start the dialogue
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The important piece in Trump‘s announcement is not who would pay for arms. Its what (he currently) claims happened if there was no peace in 50 days.
Europe will now place orders for arms, they will likely not be fully delivered in 50 days. Now:
A) there is peace: Europe cancels orders
B) There is war and the US applies secondary tarifs => we are heading for third world war as there will be a brics block that no longer trades with the West, so it doesnt matter any more who pays as everone desperately needs arms and money was no longer our concern
C) war continues but Trump doesnt apply secondary tarrifs: the Eu will break with the US and pretty much cancel any orders unless they need it for themselves. Meaning: no way that europe would buy artillery shells, they would heavily ramp up production themselves
To be honest: there is relatively solid Chance for A, i think it was a smart move to make everyone show their cards.