200% tariff on pharma?
Uhm should I sell my swiss etfs? lol
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Nearly no movement on Novartis post-market so far, traded in the US.
I think (hope) @ma0 was joking�
They would not be impacted because they already have production in the U.S.
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Threatens is the keyword. Itâs all bullshit, I frankly think at this point heâs trying to make something happen and nobody seems to believe him. It could go badly if he goes even more Trump than he already is and does something really dumb.
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But they wonât be applied if you are building plants in US. As far as I know Roche & Novartis have quite a lot of production in US. Not sure if itâs enough.
10 of the 25 biggest pharmas are from the US. Whatâs he going to achieve with that? American patients (and insurers) are already overpaying through the nose compared with the rest of the world. He wants to make it even more expensive for them?
I think the âvisionâ is to make everything important in US -: Pharma, weapons, semi conductors, automobiles etc.
Now assuming Pharma is not chewing gum, eventually whoever makes the important pharmaceutical products has some sort of IP, itâs not simple to ask people to make in US if they donât want to. The target might be American companies who have production outside US (Ireland majorly) and export back to US. But also anyone else who imports into US like Switzerland and Germany.
Irony is Switzerland, EU and India are in process of negotiation of trade deal. If these random sectors are out of scope and will follow independent tariffs then what is the point of trade deal?
Auto, Pharma, Metal are key exports sectors and all of them seem to have their own tariffs. Singapore has a Free trade agreement already but will get a tariff too. Because why not 
Is the trade deal discussion a joke?
Itâs like Ryan airlines. You flight ticket doesnât include anything except the boarding pass and intentionally selected bad seat
I read that it was also said , they will give 1-1.5 years to let Pharma firms to get their act together
Trump voters canât remember much for long anyway.
After this continuous tariff drama, I am slowly coming to conclusion that US doesnât have much leverage in global trade anymore.
We can see this in discussions with Japan, Korea, China, Brazil etc. All of them didnât really crawl and even though say they want to have a deal, they donât really want to beg for it. Maybe we are witnessing the reality of multipolar world as we speak where a country who used to be dominant in past is slowly losing influence.
It seems to me the only real leverage US (if at all) has is over Canada & EU. And I feel this is because of very high level of interconnected supply chains. While Canada & EU understand and donât want to break these connections , US is trying to show they are willing to burn the house down in order to show leverage. Letâs see how this concludes.
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I was thinking, even though a calendar year doesnât mean all that much in long-term investing (rolling #-year returns are more meaningful in my opinion), it still has massive mental accounting weight, so with that in mindâŠweâre half way through 2025 already 
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I wonder why the same actions of other countries or regions like Switzerland, EU and so on did not cause the same reactions in the press. Every tax, every subsidy and every toll or law barrier is bad for trade and makes people poorer. Always and everywhere. Europe and Switzerland are world champions in those things. At least were until now.
In Switzerland and the EU, you usually have a few years of lead time. As a business, you need to be able to prepare for that. The uncertainty is whatâs off-putting.
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There is nothing similar.
In EU or CH, such changes are part of parliamentary process . In US itâs mainly done via decrees/ Truthsocial
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So since rolling 20 year CaGR is 5% when measured in CHF, I guess we have +7.5 % more to go to get back to average
6 months to go . Tick tock
I donât know if youâre being sarcastic butâŠyeah!
Edit: I find rolling returns much more meaningful than YTD, though I have set up my ticker watch to YTD because I know what amount in CHF invested there was on 1/1/202x.
When you say rolling, whatâs the metric you use?
The 5% I stated was actually real number for 20 year CAGR. I calculated it some time back based on 35 year history.
Thatâs what I meant, I ask chatGPT
to do 10-year rolling but 20 is even more robust.
I see. We use tax, tolls and subsidies to protect our cows, Trump uses it to protect his friends. I think Brasil did not have a negative trading balance with the U.S.A. but Trump uses it to âstop the witch hunt of Bolsonaroâ.