I would really like that to happen to be honest. This dependency is not good.
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Ultimately I believe any dip will be smaller than the April one because thereâs way more clarity now, and the market has had ages to digest scenarios that may come up.
Itâs also politically complacent and lazy. Our leaders in Europe have shown to be very focused in the short-term. If any country has shown to have its head screwed on properly itâs France, in my opinion, other than CH.
I have come to conclusion that there is no way Tariffs wonât be there. These are Trumpâs desire since many decades and he will like them to be fulfilled . But since itâs not a shock anymore, markets are getting used to such news.
However it seems that impact on prices locally is still to be seen. This might not yet be priced in.
But if inflation doesnât move up in US, then earnings would need to move down (either in US or in other countries). So still a net negative for equities. Though not clear which equities. For global equity investor , it would not matter as they will be impacted anyways.
In my opinion it makes for a mega bull case in a few yearsâ time, first potential upside in the mid-term elections in the US, and particularly in the next presidential elections. So good time to accumulate at whatever prices we get, as always.
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Not sure I get it.
US market is already priced for perfection. Arenât we already bullish?
Are we? I understand priced for perfection to mean - as we saw in 2024 where any time nVidia was beating but not smashing itâs estimated earnings and the stock would slide 5-10%, only to rebound 2 days later - that any hitch will send prices tumbling. There were constant bears on social media about valuations, debt, etc etc for years, now itâs all forgotten and the current bear case/narrative is Trump, tariffs, debt again etc. Thatâs not so bullish!
My point is more about a bull case for when Trump, his 4D chess, tariffs, Putin etc are out of the picture. Anyway, one good thing about Trump is I stopped looking all that much.
Well S&P 500 is at ATH, Forward PE ratios are only lower versus post Covid & dot.com.
So I donât know what else bullish market can do. I hope we will not start paying 30 PE just because Trump lost mid term
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The main question is: will you or are you using these data for any investment decisions? I recall youâve tilted away from the S&P500/US (I have tilted towards, not now, from the start of my investing âcareerâ).
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No I donât use any specific data to decide investments. Just do regular DCA.
My portfolio is 65% Equities and ~50% of that is US. Rest 35% is other assets (cash, bonds, gold, Swiss RE funds)
My comment was not about changing any plans. It was mainly about not expecting any huge returns in a highly priced market. Whatever the reason for future bullishness might be.
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And there would certainly be a lot of investor money ready at an isntance.
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US Philippines trade deal concluded
Summary so far -:
Tariff on exports from US to
- UK -: 0
- Vietnam -: 0
- Indonesia -: 0
- Phillipines -: 0
- China -: 10%
Tariff applied for exports to US
- UK -: 10%
- Vietnam -: 20%
- Indonesia-: 19%
- Philippines -: 19%
- China -: 30%
It seems the general trend is one sided deals where US is applying tariffs to everyone and getting zero tariffs in return. So at least the economic and military leverage is working so far
I think Switzerland would end up closer to Asian deals. EU might be between UK & Asia
Whatâs your view?
Who is actually benefiting from these deals?
- I would say winners are -: US companies and customers in other countries . And losers are -: US customers and companies from other countries
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From the latter category:
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GM also reported lower profits due to Tariffs.
It seems automakers on both sides are getting hit due to complex supply chains
GM stock down 7.5%
Iâm just curious as to whether the EU will chicken out or play hardball like China.
I think EU will try hard behind the doors but would not publicly fight. I am pretty sure US is going to put NATO / US troops in EU / Ukraine etc in the mix if they have to.
White House needs to show a WIN. Doesnât matter blackmail or not
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Tariffs, subsidies and tax are always bad for anybody, for any trade. But obviously there are winner and loser. Consumers are always on the losing site, but politicians are notâŠ
Wonder how long the EU waits to impose a digital tax.. Yippie, 5 cents for every google search!
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It becomes clear that the political profile needed on the other side is publicly sucking up without limits, making concessions that sound impressive but in the end are fairly meaningless. Voila, âdealâ!! (See that NATO guy a few weeks back)
(Until the next round of extortion attempts starts).
Wondering whether that was used to ânegotiateâ away section 899.
My guess is that EU might not care about it. The impact of section 899 is mostly on the dollar system (because treasury have historically been exempt from withholding, adding some tax adds a lot of friction to the USD-based financial system which was very scary, the amount of things that rely on short term USD debt flowing around is huge) and likely some reduction on US-based investments from foreign investors.
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Based on the negotiation approach, I hope that Switzerland will land closer to the UK, while EU gets something like China. But, yeah, hard to predictâŠ