Any Stockpickers out there?

Investing / Portfolios
1154

one of my favorite topics and also a favorite molecule (I am in the pharma industry). Tirzepatide(mounjaro) is a superior molecule for diabetes and obesity but semaglutide has multiple new indications which are not yet approved for Tirze. in Q1 2026, massive number of generic companies will come in for ozempic in many countries and this will reduce the price by perhaps more than 70% in many countries but this would also expand the patient universe who are now willing to take the med. the pace of growth of novo with regards to ozempic and wegovy will definitely come down but at the current price, I personally believe NVO is a much safer bet as compared to the multiples of Lilly (but Lilly has other good molecules in areas other than diabetes and obesity as well - so thats a kicker there).

the MASH indication is also a big benefit for Wegovy (so far only one more molecule available - Resmetirom) and if semaglutide can do what Resme does and in addition gives benefit of obesity management and diabetes management, then that is another funnel for the patients to come in.
NVO definitely finds this the next big space to be in if you look at the investments of buying a couple of companies (one in gut health and the other with assets in management of liver disease). at the current price, downside looks very limited in my view and fairly good upside. I would love a dip to 47 range once more to load on to my posiiton though.

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1155

Agree (not in pharma, but working for pharma). MASH is a huge one, one of the last hurrahs in my opinion for the pharma industry, along with Alzheimer’s.

As a scientist I’m still wondering whether there’s a chicken and egg situation in diabetes<>obesity +/- inflammation. We know fat is inherently an inflammatory tissue, we know that the first-line recommendation for diabetes, obesity and MASH is weight loss, we also have hints there’s inflammation at play in heart disease and potentially Alzheimer’s too, so there’s a bigger picture there. Of course to keep the regulatory process intact and patients safe all of the above will be parsed, sliced and diced and compartmentalized and supported with appropriate data at every step, but I’m wondering if over time we’ll see some convergence of “medicines for older people who can afford them”, hitting obesity, diabetes, heart disease and dementia at once. Any one of those is a cosmically-sized pot of money, put together it’s gazillions. Of course, party pooper must say it’s priced in :stuck_out_tongue:

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1156

totally agree.. the current concept is of course the “CRM” axis - cardio renal metabolic axis. In the cardiometabolic space, the “M” part of this axis is a new addition in the past few years.. This exactly is the playground where NVO appears to be positioning itself in (they have not told this publicly but this is my read of the situation looking at their moves).

also I missed another great point for NVO.. many of the markets in APAC/India etc are more oral preferring countries than for injections.. they are still going to prefer taking the oral rybelsus instead of ozempic and this is where NVO still reigns supreme despite the onset of generics.. that could also help. lets see

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1157

Chat-GPT, can you translate the latest 3 posts into plain English?

Here’s a plain-English summary of that discussion:

  • Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) is considered a better drug than semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) for diabetes and obesity, but semaglutide currently has more approved uses (indications).
  • Generic versions of Ozempic will start appearing in many countries in early 2026, likely cutting prices by over 70%. That will hurt Novo Nordisk’s growth rate, but make the drug affordable for many more patients.
  • Despite slower growth ahead, Novo Nordisk (NVO) is still seen as a safer investment than Eli Lilly, though Lilly has other promising drugs outside diabetes and obesity.
  • The new MASH (fatty liver disease) indication for Wegovy could be huge — only one other approved drug exists (Resmetirom). If semaglutide proves effective for MASH and helps with weight loss and diabetes, it could attract many more patients.
  • Novo is investing heavily in this area, buying companies focused on gut health and liver disease. The author thinks the stock has limited downside and good upside, and would buy more if it dips to around $47.
  • Another commenter adds that MASH and Alzheimer’s are two of the last major opportunities for big pharma. They note growing scientific links between obesity, diabetes, inflammation, and diseases like heart disease and dementia, suggesting future drugs might target all of these together.
  • Finally, it’s noted that in markets like India and Asia, patients prefer oral medications over injections, which helps Novo Nordisk since it has an oral version of semaglutide (Rybelsus).

In short: Novo Nordisk is well-positioned with semaglutide, especially for new uses like MASH and in oral form, even as cheaper generics emerge. The future of pharma likely lies in treating overlapping conditions like obesity, diabetes, and heart disease together.

:wink:

5 Likes
1158

Likewise totally agree! In the many years I’ve been called to support either oral or…non-oral route of admin as a “value” point it’s overwhelmingly obvious that people prefer oral drugs.

As my old boss used to say “It’s better to be roughly right than exactly wrong”, ChatGPT is roughly right in its “plain English” summary, misses some nuances but hey, good enough :wink:

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1160

Apologies if I put it in a complex manner :smiley:

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1161

I think he was just joking, the posts were perfetly understandable.

I bought at 50 but would add in the 40s.

I think the challenge for NVO is not the science but translating that into dollars. They messed up the US market, forgot to renew their patent in Canada and I have doubts that they can handle the Trump administration as well as the US pharma companies.

1162

This I agree. for all we know, it may remain trapped in the region for months till they find the trigger to move up. however, only thing I am a bit sure of is that it is limited on the downside.

1163

not sure if this is the right forum but is anyone here looking at some small-mid cap listed in Swiss exchange?
with the strong franc, trying to idenitfy some companies with strong tech background + good export opportunities. potentially when the franc stabilizes down the line vs dollar, the margins and profits should compound for these companies.

1164

Two analysts, two opinions, both appear reasonable :slight_smile:

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1165

love the title! second one :smiley:

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1166

I think a lot of this convo highlights the value in mechanizing investment strategies, where you don’t need to understand and research a business and all the myriad variables. People can and do have a modicum of skill to do it in their niche but it’s a massive rabbit hole, whereas eg @cubanpete_the_swiss, @Your_Full_Name purely follow the data, and numbers are numbers regardless of whether one’s selling cloud space, data, medicines, soap, services or stuffed animals.

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1167

Pets.com

But, Sir, ordered and shipped over the Internet!

On nicely seeking α with LLY:

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(I’ll pass, thanks)

Goofy does not joke, he only goofs around.
Please mind the difference, Sir.

Still good enough to run Skynet, though, right?

In other news, I had some cash to deploy and today added another slice of a boring Agricultural Products & Services company: Ingredion.

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I bought the dip let my elaborate mostly[$] mechanical system do its work which then instructed me to buy today.

Uh … er … yes, of course. That’s exactly how it works.

Narrator: “Live shot of Goofy figuring out buy signals following only the numbers given by the market.”

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(Source: 2001: A Space Odyssey - Dawn of Man)[2001]

$   I honest to God went through all my positions and potential new buys last weekend and highlighted a couple of buy candidates – came away with $CBU, $CI, $CVX, $EIX, $GIS, $INGR, $KDP, $O, $OZK, $PRU, $SJM, $STT and $VZ as buyable.

Taking into account position sizing, open cash secured puts, sector allocations, upcoming earnings calls and some magic shrooms secret sauce (C8H10N4O2 spiced up with some C18H27NO3) $INGR looked most interesting today.

$KDP was a close second, but they’ll report earnings on Monday, and I’ll wait for what they have to say.
Maybe I’ll buy some more of their stock, maybe I’ll just buy some more of their soda (shout out to @larix.aurea for their advertisement of the “Action” chain where I picked up a couple of bottles of Dr. Pepper last week – for CHF 1.19 a bottle!
As a consumer I noticed their bottle contains just 450ml instead of the standard 500ml, but as a shareholder, I of course approve … :wink:


2001   Anyone else disappointed we’re 24 years past 2001 and we not only have not sent astronauts to Jupiter, we don’t even have a HAL[IBM] 9000 equivalent … just some some LLMs crowning themselves as AI, but well, don’t get me started …

IBM   Those who knew that HAL was left shifted for IBM get an extra serving of desert for tonight’s dinner.
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1168

My mechanical momentum strategy crossed 28% XIRR per year yesterday, after almost 6 years. I never thought this was possible for anybody else then Peter Lynch. But then he did it over 20 years, and there I am not even at a third. And we had extraordinary stock markets for the time I do this.

Here is a table comparing the performance of some indices with my momentum strategy, even comparisons don’t make much sense:

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Addendum: I publish my trades and a monthly recap in my mechanical investment strategies thread:

7 Likes
1169

That’s an impressive performance, even more impressive with that great comparison table. Congrats!

1170

Would be interesting to see a comparison with a momentum ETF, like SPMO, though I’m aware your screen is different. Overall very impressive, in particular dodging 2022.

1171

There is no data for the exact timeframe, but the 5-years return (I think CAGR) is 20.51% and the 10 years is 18.36%

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/spmo/performance

1172

I think this was mainly my money management. I buy on credit in bear markets, therefor I was very fast to recover the Covid losses. I did publish the money management in the mechanical investment thread.

Intra-year I think I had big losses like everybody else 2022 in the stock market. But then, it was an end-of-the-world scenario, what can you lose there by buying on credit?

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1173

Everything and more? :stuck_out_tongue:

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1174

You don’t mix it up with 2020?