Any Stockpickers out there?

I’m getting antsy about selling TSM (my avg price is 128) and waiting for it to revert to mean… but I’m sure it will gap up once I’ve sold… :zany_face:

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Well done, my avg price is 174 but I really sat on the sidelines procrastinating for this one.

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I’ve been dipping in since 2021, Cpt Hindsight’s only worry is that I haven’t sized my buy properly along with Buffet (at 60 USD). :slight_smile:

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Not to brag[$] but I bought into TSM below USD 20 in mid 2013.

Um, yes, via ETF VXUS ... which is kind of like international stock picking, right?

:wink:

I know, I know, please forgive me as this doesn’t really belong into this stock picking topic, but it turns out TSM is (now) the largest holding in VXUS at 2.75%. :sweat_smile:

Edit: Of course, everyone averaging into VT since forever might have the last laugh as their ETF not only contains TSM but also all of the mag 7 and Broadcom in the top 10 positions …


$   “Not to brag”, phrase; translation: “to brag”.

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Well done, sir! Kudos for keeping it humble. :clap:

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You’re a better person than me, I would have replied to myself with

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Yesterday was the first time I tried to short a stock and IBKR held the order as it could find no shares available to short.

KVUE - sued for talc product liabilities as per JNJ in the US.

down 13% yesterday. opportunity to cut yourself trying to catch a falling knife?

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Yesterday some guy on reddit described getting burnt bad selling puts on this :wink:

BOOM. Bought 5 hours ago pre-market and opens up 8%. I wish all my trades went like this! :wink:

Joker prize goes to NEM which flipped from +15% premarket to -6% after open :confused:

Hurts a little, but not that much. May buy more later, but at the moment it is on hold by the captain.

I remember when the YouTube pundits were pumping Oatly stock:

Now I wonder why I wasn’t shorting the hell out of this thing.

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Anyone here own Sirius XM (SIRI)? It pops up on my radar now and then as BRK buys it, but everytime I look at the financials, I quickly NOPE out.

However, valuations are now in cigarette butt territory and the company (for now) still has FCF generation, divis and buybacks.

I dont own it. However, had done a quick evaluation recently. based on most metrics it looks quite good - especially the FCF and valuation. However, I still cant find a great growth catalyst to this stock to push it significantly forward.

dip in subscribers, flat average revenue per subscriber, increased cost of acquisition of new subscribers and guidance of only 1 or 2 pc growth.. very poor in my view. Big potential for this stock to be a value trap and might end up losing money from opportunity cost. I personally am avoiding it till I find the management come up with some strategic move which can accelerate growth. No growth - no investment (my style, need not be the same for others of course)!

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Novo has fallen to its 2022 valuation, been wondering if it’s beginning to be a value play or not @Your_Full_Name. Stockmarkets are brutal but a 100+ year pharma didn’t become incompetent overnight.

Looks like it’s just about fairly valued taking into account their growth.

Poor chaps who bought this mid last year 2023 …[$]

Probably fine to buy at current prices, but personally, I’d prefer a little bit of a margin of safety.

If they stay at their current 15xP/E multiple (which is fair given their forward expected earnings growth), you’d be looking at an annualized return of about 10% over the next couple of years.


$   As Chuck Carnevale would say: Valuation matters, and it matters a lot!

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Just the correction of the slim-fast-shot bubble - competition and probably some patents timed out:

Today much movement in Sasol (+17%) and PBF Energy (+14%). And Alusuisse buyer Constellium (+8%) is at 52-week high. Nice:

Congratulation and thanks. The Valais (probably Ex-Alusuisse) team:

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Eh, not quite, look at LLY. NVO had the market lead, the heavens were shinning with gold ready to rain on God’s green earth…and then they messed up on a catastrophic scale. As Buffett said “when it rains gold bring out the buckets, not the thimbles”, and they turned up with leaking thimbles (not budging on cost and with 1/10th of the supply the market demanded) while LLY was spreading many football pitch-sized buckets at -30% cost for the drug, and endless supply.

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Yeah. They really screwed up on several fronts

I never did hold Novo, my captain just did not tell me to buy it until now. Or, in other words, the statistical advantages my mechanical strategies look for were never present in that stock until now.

But I am one of their long term clients. Did take the drug for diabetes long before it was used for weight loss, but in a much higher dose. Had to do a re-evaluation and get a special permit from the insurance to keep getting it paid when it was rare. I think my insurance spends quite a few thousands of CHF a year for that. I’m still on it and my blood sugar is very stable since I take it. :+1:

I have no idea if they screwed anything up, but the drug works fine for me. And if some fatties can lose a few pounds without diet, why not?

Last years 8 billion buy of other companies is a bit high, probably I would wait to see if whatever they did buy results in enough new cash flow. At the moment it seems to me the ex-owners of the bought-up company made the better deal. But I did not ever analyze the stock and don’t know what the f… they bought. Sometimes this situation is called bought growth.

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