I was not talking about the US. You asked what we overweight and we are swiss investors.
2 Likes
Keeping a percentage in cash (chf) seems not a bad idea now.
The real dip will come
1 Like
You are shorting I guess?
1 Like
I chicken out when it’s time to go short 
1 Like
I just bought a tranche of SSON shares 30% below all time high. Slightly bigger peak to trough decline than March 2020
1 Like
In terms of buying VWRL… should i wait? 
Why? Russia is around 0.3% of VWRL
4 Likes
The market is staying low and the bad news seems to be accumulating. I start feeling more and more bearish.
Yesterday on the mainstream news (Channel 4 UK) they were talking about the current time already being an oil shock to economic growth equivalent to the 70s. Cutting off Russian oil is being discussed, they speculated that in that scenario oil could go to $300 per barrel
The chance of a clash between NATO and Russia seems to get higher by the day, accidental or otherwise
i am happy i did not put my lump sum in stocks the last 1 to 1.5 Years.
I will start my DCA now, and if we head lower i will increase the ammount.
5 Likes
I put it on April 1st 2021, and I’m negative on VT 
Well, if you look at the performance of the major index, we are in a sort of bear market, or in a good correction on a YTD basis:
- DAX: -17%
- CAC40: -15%
- SMI: -13%
- SPY: -12%
- NASDAQ: -19%
In the other hand, if you take a look to the Lyxor Commodities Refinitiv UCITS ETF, it’s performed quite well with a tremendous +35% 
2 Likes
I am very bearish myself, though I try to keep in mind that the market is forward looking and that things will still look very grim when we will have reached the bottom. I don’t think we are reaching it now, but we could.
It might well be the decade of uranium, oil and gas, as Lyn Alden suggests. There is still upside potential.
Today was a fun day in the S&P500. Down to -0.85% in the morning, then up to +1.73% by 1 pm, then back in the negatives one hour later, then up to +0.79% again, then back down with a fight toward the close and a negative closing at -0.72%… with a VIX over 30 in the background, so volativity is high but could be worse (it topped at 53 on the 1st of March 2020).
If this is the bottom, I love the narrative value of it. Feels like a movie.
Posting this because I want to recall this day in case it really is the bottom, to get back to it later and remember the mess that it was.
2 Likes
I don’t really get the VIX. I understand it measures volatility, but should it help timing the market?
1 Like
If it could, it would have been arbitraged away by institutional investors. I don’t think any widely known indicator has the ability to help time the market.
As far as I understand it, options premiums come from uncertainty, so it derives it from bid/ask quotes of options on the spx (S&P500 index). I “use” it in the same way I use CNN’s fear and greed index: as a nonserious way to guesstimate the level of uncertainty going on in the market (and poke fun at it because that’s all I can do with bipolar behavior). The market can still go up, or down, or sideways, the only thing I know during those times is that I really, really don’t know what it’s going to do.
VIX’s methodology: https://cdn.cboe.com/api/global/us_indices/governance/VIX_Methodology.pdf
Any room for more dovish signals from the FED in your outlook? That seems unlikely with the current levels of inflation but that could send the US market up regardless of the geopolitical situation too (and some FED governors seem dovish to the core…).
Roller Coaster 
There is a bit of fun for day trader at least!
1 Like
BTW, does anybody here follow financial media outlets which offer reasons (guesses maybe the better term) explaining why the market goes up one day and down the next that they would recommend? I really can’t see a pattern from the general news and my stock portfolio…
1 Like
A bit. Many financial software like TraderView or IBKR mobile have news ticker. You can pick any, they basically copy the same stuff from Reuters etc