BTW, does anybody here follow financial media outlets which offer reasons (guesses maybe the better term) explaining why the market goes up one day and down the next that they would recommend? I really can’t see a pattern from the general news and my stock portfolio…
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A bit. Many financial software like TraderView or IBKR mobile have news ticker. You can pick any, they basically copy the same stuff from Reuters etc
Yes, that’s why I wrote “guesses maybe the better term”, still when EVERYTHING is green or red I would sometimes be curious to read what explanation is being offered…
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So basically giving in to all of Russian‘s demands?
I doubt that Zelensky would give up the Donbas.
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That is what Russia is offering but basically means Ukraine would be subservient to Russia. Don’t think Ukraine will agree to that unless they are militarily defeated- have you heard somewhere that they will accept it(?)
- Ceding the Donbas to Russia or leave them as independent republics: Hardly.
- Giving these regions some autonomy and Russian language facilities within Ukraine: Definitely.
- Pledging military neutrality by not joining NATO: Possibly.
- Pledging not to abandon accession to EU: No chance.
- Giving up claims on Crimea: Possibly (there‘s always been that „used to be Russia“ talk)
- Demilitarization by getting rid of the Ukrainian military: Never.
I think that may be Ukraine‘s position and willingness to make concessions. The crucial part that’s not in the cards and that they’ll likely never agree with Russia is probably giving up the Donbass.
Edit: also, who’d be the one(s) to enforce such a truce and agreement? It can‘t be the Russians, and it won‘t be the U.S. or NATO. And I very much doubt it‘s going to be China or France/EU either.
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“Neutrality” for Russia seems to mean Ukraine being under Russian control and yesterday’s market optimism about an agreement seems misplaced.
From today’s talks in Turkey:
"Kuleba [Ukraine’s foreign minster]… proposed a position of neutrality backed by security guarantees from world powers, but the idea was rejected by Lavrov, who said he had no interest in discussing the idea.
“The list of demands that Russia put together and forwarded to Ukraine — it is not a negotiation position, it is really an ultimatum,” Kuleba said after the talks, adding: “We shall not surrender”.
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What would such guarantees mean? Sounds a lot like Nato, perhaps with only EU countries, or what?
Good summary
If that is what they sign, sure Putin can claim he won the war. But strategically Russia has lost, EU has started planning for energy sufficiency which cuts off Russia’s cash-cow. NATO / the west will never trust Russia or leave them alone to interfere in other countries in the same way. Sanctions may remain. Their military has been humiliated
And Ukraine in practise is not worse off than before the war. Strategically they may have won. The path to EU membership is surely more open - their future towards a developed democracy would be more secure. They will have huge costs to rebuild the infrastructure but joining EU would surely boost growth
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Cool video.
Also shows why Russia would fail miserably trying to go anywhere further than Ukraine (as well as why it is failing there).
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Anybody else thinking that past this FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee) meeting, most of the uncertainty should be behind and, barring nuclear explosions and/or the rise of unknown unknowns, most of the pain ahead should be already priced in the markets?
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VIX is still kinda high (but slowly dropping)
VT in CHF went up 5.5% in two days and now it’s in the middle of the upper Bollinger band. As always, if you are out of the market when it hits the bottom, you are out when it jumps up.
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Since you are talking about TA, for what it is worth, it’s still in downtrend
Depends on the time scale and indicators. For me it is in uptrend now. For what it’s worth.
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True. Then also BTC is technically in uptrend if you consider the W time frame
For me BTC is flat for 10 weeks 
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Sounds like the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. We have now experienced what such guarantees mean.
This is super concerning.
- Because of the effects this is having and will have on the Chinese population.
- Because of the spillover effects that might happen to the global economy.
Does anyone have any other perspective on how serious this really is?
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Nice carnage again today.
Might be time for some fishing soon. 
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