I’m annoyed that the Cortana effect works with such a lag. I thought it was safe to buy already. 
Worst recent buy: CALM. Bad earnings just now and down 12% after an already rough few days!
What’s most annoying is that even some of my short positions are losing money! Grrrr.
I am interested what conclusions you take from those charts 
Some of those companies have strong, proven business models: MSFT, AAPL, Visa. They are raking in profits and and cash, have high return on capital and are growing.
Perhaps they are still priced highly and there might be a chance to get them cheaper but in the long term refer to Munger comment above. Just my opinion !
The issue with that Munger comment is whether some of the businesses you mention (AAPL, MSFT) will indeed have that profitability for the 20-30 years to come. My opinion: best case, they might look something like IBM, worst case, something like Sun Micro. Unless if you are capable of actively trading that and sell at the right time, better stick to indexes on the long run.
I assure you it is a contrarian indicator meaning that you are climbing the wall of worries. If you would see yourself swimming in gold, I would start worrying.
We are not following the same bonds. iShares Swiss Domestic Government Bond 7-15 ETF is still mostly down, and going flat and downish:
Interesting points.
As always, the unanswered question is “When?”
I’ve also seen some interesting cycle timelines like this:
What’s the opinion on this view?
Where does this “rule” come from?
The 30-70% looks close to Benjamin Graham’s: “the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks.”
I would selectively count or not count my pillar 2 assets for the purposes of this rule, depending of how I assess my temperament in regards to holding my allocation during a downturn. I’d think what matters psychologically during a downturn is what we look at. If we look at our total net worth, then that’s the number to use for me. If seeing a part of our portfolio ((one of) our brokerage account(s)) going down causes us turmoil too, then it may be worth it to be more conservative and assess our risk tolerance on that part of our portfolio more than only on the whole. My own personal view based on my assessed own temperament is to take a holistic approach and count everything, including pillar 2, in my allocation.
I understand the purpose of your post and I salute it, the time to assess our risk tolerance and eventually adjust our allocation is now, before taking the plunge, and not when deep under water and grasping for air, but I’d underscore that what you seem to be talking about is adjusting our actual allocation, for the long term, not timing the next deep and prolonged downturn, which we may already be in and going or which may occur in 2-3-5-10+ years (but will most probably occur at some point, potentially without warning, so we should be ready).
I don’t rule out a final rally in the next 12 months. I was 60/40, but now at 70/30 as I got too tempted and bought some stocks as they trended lower the last few weeks.
Guess this it where it comes from, indeed. Thanks for that link!
I suppose the best strategy those days is to split the typical monthly buy in 4 weekly task. A DCA of a DCA if you prefer
ES already broke support. If it’s not just a deviation, 87 coming for VT
I wish I’d shorted more yesterday!
it always like that 
if today was going to revert, you could have said, fortunately I didn’t short much.
If you stick to your plan with the right size, SL and TP then you are good
Yes. I was hoping for a bounce to short some more 
Boughts some MO today too. Not a big fan of the management of MO, but hopefully they learned the lessons of the last few tragic acquisitions and do no more silly deals.
So I know that “Time in the market” > “Timing the market” but for someone that has quite some money in the bank (i.e. way more than needed for emergency fund) and is starting investing more actively/seriously now, what are your guys thoughts on the current state of the market?
I have been buying some shares and filling my 3rd pillar but numbers only go down, which is fine, I understand that the strategy only makes sense long term (see beginning of post) but would you start/keep buying now, or hold off with the money in some savings account and wait for better times.
Again I know it’s all wizardry 
and nobody actually “knows” but what are your thoughts/arguments. Apologies if this is not the right post but it seems to fit the title.
I’d say this is a very good time to actually experience what your risk tolerance is, so I’d invest the money you can afford to loose right now at your self-assessed target asset allocation.
The earlier the experiences are done, the bigger the expected returns of the knowledge gained and the lower their costs.
Not only that but the best day to invest was yesterday as statistically lump sum also wins against DCA. In the end, as mentioned before, the most important is your risk tolerance.
Just bought some monthly VT
It will go down again next week, but it’s fine. That’s mean I will buy more shares next month !
To sum up: Risk parity portfolios start shining, eh 
