Hits the sell button
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Chill, people.
@Cortana âs girlfriend may earn less than he does - but Iâd certainly trust her to outperform him in timing the market with her investments.
(not even trying to be funny - though it kind of is)
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Wow, thatâs a marriage âcontractâ with x3 leverage 
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Who still thinks that there will be a recession in the USA, if not global, in 2024 as a result?
Well, from my understanding, on inflation adjusted basis, there has been a recession already. I think it wonât get worse.
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The future is too blurry for me to make a bet in either direction. Inflation seems to be going up again and oil prices are high so there may be more monetary pain ahead, which would translate to higher mortgage rates and potentially less buying power in the US, which could in turn turn into a recession.
On the other hand, the US economy has been very resilient this far and could keep surprizing prognosticators in that regard.
The current downtrend looks to me like the market somewhat letting go of its rose tinted glasses and getting back in touch with reality, so actually good news.
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The last run started in Oct 21, caught off guard most of the people. I think this a typical example of an irrational market, based onâŠAIâŠ.reality is necessary for the people calling it a new bull market. We can still go higher until of the end of the year or have a chopped volume /price action for many months. The probability for 2024 for me is one direction only
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5% base rate all around. bankruptcies are going to get more/worse as companies need to refinance, which means they either raising prices (which in turn keep inflation high), or are skimming down on workforce to save costs â which means unemployment will increase â which will light the fire in the "unemployment rises = FULL ON RECESSION 
" people who start selling â boom. 
Or maybe not 
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2 years ago on this forum typical comments were "buy BTC /ARK / take out crypto credit cards etc "
Today discussion is about when to sell stocks and buy bonds, or a bolt hole
Just an observation 
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The intensity of posts in this thread and its previous variations is a clear indicator of fear among the members of this forum.
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Being a finance forum, itâs hard to tell if fear or sniffing out opportunity.
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Iâm surprised by how little fear there has been. I thinking more about a time where people are:
- panic selling
- thinking more about losses than missing out on gains
- saying that the stock market is a scam
Itâs a way off yet. Iâd been expecting one last leg up as we have some kind of blow-off top before the big capitulation, but it hasnât arrived yet. I thought the AI mania could have been it, but it fizzled out.
Things are uncertain at the best of times, but the situation in the post-covid period have been very strange and very difficult to understand/predict.
I could as easily imagine a massive bull run from here as easily as I could imagine a massive crash.
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From a technical analysis (in CHF) point of view, we are currently:
- ACWI: Long
- SPI: Short
- ACWI CHF Hedged: Short
- Gold: Short
- Commodities: Short
- Bonds: Long
Overall, sounds like a still healthy market to me. The only strange thing is that Swiss Shares take quite some beating - and this for a few months already. My foggy cristal glass tells me that we are all good yet I am not fully convinced about Switzerland as such. The pendulum may have swung back and we may face a painful downturn in our local economyâŠ
âIrrational exuberanceâ has certainly decreased. There are fewer people advocating things liks crypto staking. We are almost 2 years on from prior peak in CHF .
No idea either but I keep invested in Blue chips and remember my favourite Charlie Munger quote:
âOver the long term, itâs hard for a stock to earn a much better return that the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, youâre not going to make much different than a six percent return - even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, youâll end up with one hell of a result.â
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Yes, maybe weâve gone from irrational exuberance to just a bit less exuberant.
Well, wasnât maybe the best day for pulling that off 
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Forget the Reverse Cramer index,
we got our Reverse Cortana here. 
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Iâm annoyed that the Cortana effect works with such a lag. I thought it was safe to buy already. 
Worst recent buy: CALM. Bad earnings just now and down 12% after an already rough few days!
Whatâs most annoying is that even some of my short positions are losing money! Grrrr.
I am interested what conclusions you take from those charts
Some of those companies have strong, proven business models: MSFT, AAPL, Visa. They are raking in profits and and cash, have high return on capital and are growing.
Perhaps they are still priced highly and there might be a chance to get them cheaper but in the long term refer to Munger comment above. Just my opinion !
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