Thank you for sharing. This never seems to be reported very prominently in Swiss news outlets.
It means interest rates in CH and US might be close to their peak? Swiss core inflation is trending down (1.7% down from a peak of 2.2%). US core inflation is 4.8% down from a peak of 6.7%.
Is anyone following the latest news on energy stocks and potential shortages in winter 2023-24? I am just back from vacation and was shocked that shops and hotels were running high Aircon (doors open…)
I think it‘s getting more likely that 1.75% will be the peak in Switzerland.
I borrowed this from @ChrisQuinn from LinkedIn. It holds rather timeless advice for those who want to succeed in investing and cannot refrain from holding company stocks.
"120 Years of stock market history in one chart
Here are 15 things I learned from 120 years of stock market history:
Lesson 1: Invest for the long term. In the short run, stock returns can be very volatile, but they are very robust in the long run.
Lesson 2: On average, you double your money in the stock market every 10 years.
Lesson 3: In the long run, stocks are less risky than bonds. For 20-year holding periods, stock returns have never fallen below inflation.
Lesson 4: Don’t try to time the market. Time in the market is way more important than timing the market.
Lesson 5: Our world continuously changes. Avoid companies who are highly exposed to rapid changing industry dynamics.
Lesson 6: This time it’s not different. History doesn’t repeat itself. But it often rhymes.
Lesson 7: Let your winners run. Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.
Lesson 8: Low stock prices are great for investors.
Lesson 9: Invest in companies that translate most earnings into free cash flow. Earnings are an opinion, cash is a fact.
Lesson 10: In the long term stock prices always follow earnings growth.
Lesson 11: Look at the equity premium. Over the past 200 years, the equity premium (the spread between the return of stocks and return of government bonds) has averaged between 3% and 3.5%.
Lesson 12: In general, small cap stocks outperform. Smaller stocks generate a higher return on the stock market. Between 1926 and 2006, the smallest decile stocks compounded at a CAGR of 14.0% compared to 10.3% for the S&P500.
Lesson 13: Cheaper stocks outperform the market. Based on the price-earnings ratio, the 20% cheapest stocks outperformed the S&P500 by 3.2% between 1957 and 2006.
Lesson 14: Do not invest in IPOs. From 1968 through 2000, a buy-and-hold strategy on IPOs underperformed the index in 29 out of 33 years that were studied.
Lesson 15: The stock market is a leading indicator for the economy. On average, the lead time between what happens on the stock market and what happens in our economy is equal to 6 months."
Stocks picking and factor tilting tips illustrated by a badly constructed index of 30 randomly chosen large cap US stocks?
Just a qualifier on that: when he says to ‘invest for the long term’, this holds doubly true for small caps (value). The chart below is from Paul Merriman and it shows the performance of US small cap value vs the S&P500. In the past, most of the additional gains have been concentrated in a few years and you’ve had to endure periods of up to 19.5 years of underperformance in order to capture the outperformance, that’s a very long time during which, in order to be successful, you have to stay your chosen course despite all the probable second guessing going around (while others are able to tout some random investment that is going to the moon).
Source for the chart: https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2020-Year-End-Podcast-Charts.pdf
I believe the related podcast is this one: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3zOjxXKeXe0qFtToiroxPe
I guess it is a matter of available data. If S&P 500 existed back then, it would of course have been a better backdrop for the article.
A post was merged into an existing topic: Benchmarking The Market
Is today a warning or just a “normal” -1.25% ?
We’ve had “warnings” for the last few days that the market dynamic may be changing, though it may not.
It’s well within the scope of normal market fluctuations. 5% drops occur on average almost yearly and 10% drops more often than every two years: This Chart Shows How Often Stock Market Corrections Occur | Money
Where the market is going is anyone’s guess. The surest way to profit is to always be ready for a downturn yet always keep investing and staying in. Those who time their exit and entry improperly provide fuel for those who keep buying as it goes down.
That being said, now is as good a time as ever to assess our actual risk tolerance and adopt the allocation that matches it, provided we do adopt it and keep it for the long term afterwards.
See the same. From a trend point of view, we have the following situation:
=> Looks to me like the beginning of a downwards leg. What do I do with this? Nothing 
You must be qualified as professional trader then, no? 
2 posts were merged into an existing topic: Benchmarking The Market
I’ve been selling the peaks throughout this year.
Did you buy back in ?
I’ve been buying here and there as some opportunities arose but otherwise the stock proceeds are now sitting in bonds.
I think the main opportunity I jumped on in 2023 was the regional bank collapse. The other bigger one might be shorting the AI mania, but I’m not brave/stupid enough to do that (at least not yet with the current momentum).
We’ve known that by the red markets already.
You really need to ket us know beforehand, I’ll make sure to buy some puts next time 
18 posts were merged into an existing topic: Real Estate in Switzerland, 2023
