Exactly, I fully invest in VTI. I was doing so. As I said previously in the other post I am thinking to switch from VTI to VT this year, I have all there. The main reason for me is to have even more diversification. At the moment I don’t like to have everything in the USA market (rationale for me is the risk to have it in one market, also I think in the long run USA will not be as strong as it is at the moment.).
Also, another member of the forum commented that maybe keeping them and buying another two ETFs for the emerging markets with a lower TER than VT is also a good option (like VWO).
let me share this one here (especially about the “dips” that take forever to reconcile).
I like the guy’s analysis a lot, comments welcome where you think he might be wrong.
His claim around 6:20 that you had to wait for 30 years to start making money relative to inflation is just wrong. He’s making a typical mistake of looking at S&P price chart while ignoring dividends.
The trick, of course, being to design a plan we are able to follow. Behavioral mistakes can kill an early retirement plan more easily than a small allocation to bonds.
Better an imperfect plan we can stick with than a perfect one we’re going to drop at the worst possible time.
On the topic of 2022 strategy, this recent article from Jeremy Grantham (GMO) has been in the news lately. Personally I am torn between “history will repeat itself” vs “this time its different”. One can find counter arguments to his point as well such as all the money needs to go somewhere. In any case I have decided to reduce downside risk by opening positions in some of the less overvalued markets (European Prime Value, Japan, etc). I am not brave enough to short growth stocks - been burnt before. Eager to hear your thoughts …
My personal thoughts are that history rhymes, but the verses don’t all have the same number of syllables, such that it’s impossible to tell with enough accuracy when what will happen. It’s probably a good time to reassess our risk tolerance, but downturns can happen without warnings, so we should rather be ready at all times.
In the same vein, efficient shorting requires being right on the direction (down) and the timing of it. That last part is the trickier of the two. On top of that, the downside is unlimited but the upside is limited. It’s possible to go broke shorting the market, so I’d say It’s a loosing game for retail investors such as we are. I wouldn’t wander on that path.
I head someone on YouTube saying that value stocks are making a comeback and money could flow into them from growth stocks. I understand very little about growth/value etc, but I wonder if you guys think that YouTuber had a good point or not.
'Murica has a huge plan to “rebuild”, that includes a lot of construction, highways, manufacturing critical stuff (like the Semiconductor Foundry of Intel), energy networks (utilities), transportation.
These things have been in the “value” business so far (except chip makers), so they might overperform, especially if growth stocks with ridiculous valuations get further plummeted.
Predictions are very difficult, especially about the future
True value stocks are never out of fashion, if you buy them with a high enough margin of safety. The problem is, that it’s extremly hard to find such stocks at the current valuations.
Looks like the market is continue to decline. It would be good to re-test the lows of last week.
I am waiting to see further drop and maybe drop a nice chunk into a triple ETF.
I think there are some sales ongoing. Check out s&p500 biotech ETF is down 45% from peak. The 3x ETF close to 90% down. Valuation on biotech are still a little elevated but if we go down another 30% would be once in a lifetime to try a nice bet. Edit. Once in a 5 or more years opportunity.
I’m also getting antsy but rather on individual stocks to start burning in my cash.
Not naming the tickers, but I believe some stuff is just way oversold on panic. Worst case it’ll be a long buy-and-hold
We’re out of the steep channel that was building since March 2020, and so far the 200MA seems to have held up the SPX, but if it does drop, the bottom of that channel is 3500 points. That’ll hurt (but still leaves a bull cycle intact).
Everyone is responsible of their own decisions!
I may not invest in the ticker directly but it may spur ideas for a another stock in the same sub-industry.
I can go first. I was tracking:
CRISP - still too high for me
DTIL - precision biosciences - small cap risky but large upside
ANSYS and snowflake - both larger and still priced high - large discount needed yet for me to go there
Also tracking 2 triple ETFs
LABU - 3x biotech ETF
wisdomtree copper 3x - for the Eletric revolution. It’s holding. If we go down, I may re-assess
While we are all responsible for our decisions, I just want to underline that the title of the thread notwithstanding, what we are talking here are tactics. Just a friendly reminder that the whole point of a strategy is to enlighten further decisions down the road. It’s probably better to make sure our tactics do follow our global strategy and that we don’t get carried away.
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. Here are some simulations from vanguard with data since 1926: 
