US high valuations impact on your stock porfolio mix?

[Mirager]

@jks21

But why this scenario is more valid than the following? (When you do a lamp-sum in high valuations period):
“Starting from 10, climbing up to 11, a 50% drop will leave me with 5.5, which is WORSE than starting from 10, climbing to 10.5, where a 20% drop will leave me with 8.5”

Your scenario is just as valid as mine, just the timing and rate of growth are different! Guess we need to be optimistic, disciplined, and lucky. Lump sums (and staying in the market) are shown to beat DCA 2/3 of the time.

@jks21

Of course we cannot predict the future! The main point is that there is evidence that High Valuations are negatively correlated with Lower Expected returns (although there is much noise).
Now if we want or can address this somehow is the controversial topic

That’s totally true too, I think the answer is not controversial, complicated, or easy!

• we can’t time the market
• time in the market beats timing the market
• selling at a loss makes paper losses real
• having an exit strategy is as important as entering

You can see it is not easy to do either, even for people like those in this forum who’re quite a few clicks above the average when it comes to personal finance: Are you retired? Did you struggle to leave money on the table?