So I got a young colleague/friend into saving and investing... and he's wiping the floor with me (...but also, maybe, teaching me a lesson?)

Preface: This isn’t really about me but about a former co-worker (now friend) of mine.

After completing his apprenticeship in the company I’ve been working for, he was taken on as a full employee. He was and still is younger than 25, comes from a non-academic background, and won’t (can’t) go into any sort of academics himself. When he asked me for advice on his first tax return we talked about his budget - and he had little a concept of budgeting: it basically was “trying not to be below zero at the end of the month”. Though he was saving something in the 0.1% interest savings account with the cantonal bank, he no concept of investing either.

Though living quite frugal in many respects (though not by conscious choice rather than his hobbies and pastimes, and the fact that he lives with his family), the first thing he did after signing his contract with the company as a full employee was: leasing an expensive luxury car. We calculated that he spent about a quarter (25%) of his monthly take-home salary on the car alone (in leasing rates, registration, insurances, gas etc.) - and then some on enhancements and upgrades for it.

More out of wanting to prevent him from blowing all his money without saving, I convinced to him to open up a securities account a while ago. And then make regular ETF investments, through a savings plan.

He had had no idea about equity investments before and still isn’t much interested in the details of it, though he does keep tabs on his account every now and then. He’s still paying into four regular equity savings plans (three ETFs, one stock savings plan for a particular stock). Which I suggested, to get him into it: “Look, these is/contains companies whose products you like and use. Oh, and let’s also throw in an MSCI World fund to cover everything worldwide a bit” (the latter which I of course assigned the biggest allocation of his investments to).

Subsquently, he came back and asked me for advice a couple of times. Other than some technical advice on order types and setting limits, I gave him only very general advice (not panicking in downturns, taking it as a long-term endeavour, not chasing highs and lows, but that realising gains also doesn’t hurt…), though in the end left the ultimate decisions up to him.

Basically, he’s just starting out to save and invest for, while still being inexperienced and approaching investing pretty naively, without worrying about the details. Other than putting regular “savings” into it, he doesn’t “trade” frequently. Barely at all, in fact. Though he has made (just) a few conscious one-off transactions every couple of months - on his own, which surprised me, to be honest.

Now comes the maddening thing for me: so far, his portfolio performance has been wiping the floor with mine. :rage: Of course it’s no secret I’ve been holding off on making larger lump-sum investments due to the (perceived) high valuations.

But then, he’s also doing it by timing the market. :astonished:

As I said, he’s in no way trading frequently, has just made a handful select few one-off trades. And he hasn’t made them by looking at any ratios or PE growth figures or what not, let alone crunching number. He wouldn’t know how to anyway. He just logs the web banking to his portfolio every few days / weeks (?), and sold or bought when the price seemed “high” or “low” - or heading into the wrong direction - to him. On mere intuition, gut feeling… or luck? He doesn’t even follow economic or financial news and chatter at all, and stays totally unworried throughout.

The few of times he’s done this now, he’s done impressively well.
Taking the cake though…

We had a brief chat today, he showed me his portfolio data. And I noticed his (supposedly) biggest position in his World ETF was missing from his portfolio. I inquired, and he - literally - only vaguely remembered he had sold something earlier this year. I made him check, and he had in fact taken the biggest chunk out of his portfolio, and sold his World ETF on february 19 - at the historical all-time high bascially, give or take a week. For the simple reason that he had seen it had made “good” gains that he wanted to realise.

Needless to say, that is and will be hard to replicate. Yet my own take-away so far might be this: One shouldn’t overcomplicate things, overthink or crunch the numbers too vigorously. And not worry about thing. But still, trusting your intuition sometimes might prevent you from subsequent regret.

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Don’t worry, his strategy won’t work longterm. This was pure beginners luck.

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He’s been lucky so far. Check again in a couple years.

The “problem” now might be that he thinks he is Gordon Gekko reincarnated and might be tempted to become more active, take more risks, and start losing some serious money.

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That’s a cool story, but I’m not sure if I agree with your conclusion. It’ might be just beginner’s luck. Btw when I read the title, I thought he’s wiping the floor with you, because you advised him to buy MSCI World shortly before the crash. That would be nerve-wrecking, to be this kind of advisor. I advised my gf to buy VIAC and she was too afraid, and I’m kind of glad she didn’t, because now I would have to listen that it was a crappy advice.

Ben Felix has a nice video about it. He said that according to research, even 10 years is not enough to say if an active investor has skill or luck, the statistical significance is not big enough. Through sheer luck, you may make more right than wrong decisions and beat the market.

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Same here. When people ask me for advice I sometimes pretend to know nothing about the topic, or start with a little sermon that “thou shalt never buy anything without feeling confident that thou knowest what you are doing” and “the crash will come, thine security account will turn deep red, albeit only temporarily”.

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Yep, that’s what it was.

Intuition is worth little here. :slight_smile:
Might make you feel better when reflecting on the decisions and outcomes; and that might matter to some.

36 years to be precise, with 2% outperformance (because fees).
Few even survive that long in the business, let alone bring that sort of results. :smiley:


On a similar note - one could have panicked and emotionally sold stocks after the first wave (week) of this, when it dropped ca 10%.
Few days after one would feel regret and realize that he acted on emotion rather than reason, as the things started going up; “learning the buy and hold lesson”.
Then fast forward 3 weeks later - one would feel like superman with great gut feeling, and his emotional decision being “right”.
But is it? Anything more than sheer luck?

P.S. Best decision doesn’t always necessarily lead to best outcome. And vice versa - a good outcome is not always a sign of a good decision.

Not what I mean. He says that even if a fund manager has a track record of 10 years of beating the market, it still might be due to luck.

btw @San_Francisco let us know when your friend bought MSCI World again, will be a good time to buy :wink:

Yes. I’m saying that even if it’s 30 (or 35), it is still not statistically significant. (For the one potentially investing with that active manager)

When I started in 2009, I just made a lump sum investment in UBS w/o overthinking it, I was just aware of financial crisis but also only very vaguely as I was doing my military service and had no time to check news etc. I was not thinking about recession or how long it could last etc. Couple of months later I was 30-40% in plus. Since then I had to learn a lot of lessons because I did similar things but was less succesful. I made lump investments in a pharma company and realized the wins a couple of months later thinking oh that was good (years later the share price went from 25 to 170). I made lump investment in another company and lost about 60% and it took me 3-4 years with some other lucky investments to equalize those losses.

Now, I am much more careful, and I don’t do just lump investments. If I had started with this strategy in 2009, I would have ridden this crazy bullish market and would probably still be in plus despite the current market crash.

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Sure. It’s no formal strategy of course.

Not sure if he’s at risk, but it’s a good point. I’ll keep an eye on it every now and then. Though better he makes this experience at a younger age with less money - than later on in life with bigger amounts.

This is basically what I told him. Just …his account didn’t turn deep red, as he managed to avoid the crash somewhat - by heeding the first advice: Only buying what he (by whatever reasoning) feel confident in - and then also letting go of it (selling), when he did not feel that confident anymore.

I think he did this week.

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So I helped him with - or basically did for him - his 2020 tax return today and saw his order data.

Biggest part of his (albeit overall modest) investments was held in an MSCI World ETF.
Entered a sell order for his entiret on 19 February 2020, which got executed on 20 February.

He then reentered the market by making lump-sum investment in Vanguard VWCE on 23 March.

These were basically his only two (manual) orders for the whole year of 2020. (There was one additional “round trip” selling and re-buying the same security within a week that made no sense at all. Other than that no manual orders at all. Just a few recurring investment plan purchases that he kept holding).

You couldn’t make that timing up.

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Sounds great for him, I hope it doesn’t get to his head imagining he can time every crisis but there’d be money to be made selling himself as the man who timed the corona-crash perfectly.

Has he told you his rationale behind those orders (mainly, why at that point in time and not a few days/weeks earlier/later).

  • “I’m up x EUR on that. Feels like a good amount and time to take profit”.
  • “The price felt like a good/cheap price to buy again”

I think that pretty much sums up his entire decision-making.

If my memory serves me right, he also sold within +/- one week from all-time highs in autumn of 2018.

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Good gut calls, it’s nice that he wasn’t afraid to jump back in when he felt that the price had reached good levels for him but the curious side in me is burning to know if he has other gut feelings.

Hope his journey will keep going well, as well as yours, of course.

Glad to hear this story. Somehow it amazes me how everyone in this forum thinks that there isnt the possibility to outperform the market on a consistent base. Just because something is very unlikely doesnt mean it doesnt exist. Concerning your friend: Unlike some other commenters here I am not interested in judging if it was luck or skill. I know that there is the possibility to be skill, but it doesnt change anything for my investment approach and it shouldnt change anything for yours if you are confident in what you are doing.

There’s a border between the unlikely and the impossible.

I could win the Swiss lottery every Wednesday and every Saturday consistently.

But that wouldn’t be unlikely, it’d be impossible.

Back to investing: I hardly believe that there’s anyone who is really consistently, for years, beating the market. Of course there are books that explain how to do it, such as those by James Rickards. If I recall it correctly he says to: Time the market, invest in private equity where you know the managers and company founders, buy gold, etc

Sure…

I am reading ‘Unknown Market Wizards’. Quite a nice read!

Indeed there is:
unlikely p(x)>0
impossible p(x)=0

First of all your example amazes me :wink: not sure if it was chosen on purpose, but you are comparing apples to bananas if it was meant as comparison to investing.

Good thing about facts is that they dont rely on what you and I believe. Dont understand me wrong, I dont believe that I can constantly beat the market, but neither does it give me the arrogance to judge if someone else can do it. I have no clue who James Rickards is and I dont care about it :laughing:

I think you’re twisting the words. The general sentiment is that the average return of an average investor will not be higher than the average return of the whole market. But the standard deviation of the possible return will be much higher than if you went with the market. If you invest on your own and in individual stocks, there is a much higher chance that you will outperform the market, but also underperform. And any difference vs the market will be caused by luck, not skill (because an average investor doesn’t have much skill).

That being said, you don’t even have to make right calls every day to massively outperform the market. You only need one/two lucky right decisions, like e.g. getting out at the top and getting back in at the bottom. If you luckily manage to skip the bear market once, you will have outperformed the market by a lot.

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First of all the average investor doesnt buy the whole market and the whole market doesnt mean stocks only if we want to be precise.

Says who? After 30 Stocks you have such a marginal diversification benefit that it doesnt even matter if you hold 100 or 10000 stocks.

And that exactly is my problem… You might have to share with me your unique metric to distinct luck from skill in investing if you make such a bold claim.

That would have been my next point…