No! Even if the statistics say that If you are right 10 times in 40 years and you go out from the market is better than if you avoid selling the 10 better moments in the market…
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Why would you sell if you are long term? That would be more “timing market” by trying to re-enter at a lower point later in May… Some people might execute that properly but I don’t trust myself and my uninformed intuitions to succeed at this.
If you want completely out of the market then maybe selling today is not the worst… Certainly better than a few weeks ago.
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Gyms are opening on May 11th! Finally!
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I will have to do every exercise with 3 kg only…
Or maybe not. It looks like the Bundesrat talked bullshit today. BAG is saying that gyms stay closed.
What the hell? Does the right hand not know what the left hand is doing?
While the net effect might be statistically insignificant, it is important to note that this was achieved by unprecedented restrictions on public life, street and pedestrian traffic, etc. People have been staying at home, with limited physical exertion and activity (which should cases of death over the short term). Though accidents, physical injury and other transmittable diseases (which might have been lowered by staying at home and isolating) are relatively uncommon causes of death.
Keep in mind that this is a very, very selective perception and analysis. The 10 or x few “best” days (day-to-day) in investing are often rebounds from a big crash. Just as we’ve witnessed this year.
I am too lazy to pull up the statistics, but he must have had at least couple of the “x best days over the last 40 years” in March and April this very year.
My friend (of whom I told on the forum recently) must have missed all of them - by selling practically near the all-time high on february 19. His portfolio is doing very fine.
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I usually check the Euromomo index, where you see all mortality around Europe (including CH).
And also you can kinda compare those number against hard normal flue seasons (example 2017) in the past.
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Gyms are open from May 11th! BAG just said that the 1st post was wrong.
Why do you even care? Just go for a run into the forest, there are the urban workout places, vitaparcour etc. Or just do pushups and other exercises that you can do at home. If it weren’t for the psychological effect, I would put gym subscriptions on the wall of anti-mustachian comedy 
I’m thrilled to see what the loosening of the lockdown will bring.
- If the number of cases jumps up again and hospitals become crowded, then it will mean we need to tighten the lockdown until we have a better way to fight this virus.
- If hospitals don’t become crowded, it will mean the virus already got the most susceptible victims, or maybe the most deadly strains died out
- If we see no spikes in the number of cases, it will mean we have reached herd immunity (?)
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So if you miss the 10 best and 10 worst day, you are up 32% vs hold.
The 10 best and worst days are usually very close together.
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Well is your friend in the market again?
This is quite an important decision that has yet to be made.
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I’m a bodybuilder/powerlifter, so I need heavy weights to maintain my physical ability. I also competed in European Powerlifting Championships, my PRs are 240kg Squat, 170kg Bench Press and 300kg Deadlift. So running in the forest or doing exercises in a Vitaparcour won’t cut it 
I think the numbers will jump up again but there won’t be a 2nd lockdown.
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Alright, you got me 
It’s funny how we can exchange hundreds of posts on various topics, but we still have no idea who is on the other side. The brain still tries to paint a picture, but it often fails miserably 
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To get back to the actual topic. As we are slowly approaching the 3000 mark, I really think the March 23rd was the lowest point of this crisis. I’ve definitely learned a lot from it. You always have to expect to see a -35% drawdown (or even more) in a couple of weeks. Who knows how much further it would have fallen if the FED didn’t do anything, maybe we would be looking at -60% right now.
I can’t imagine what news would be necessary to see a new low as I can’t imagine that we’ll have a 2nd lockdown.
This could perhaps make a bit of sense if the rise in the stock market made any “sense” related to economy (which is, and will, be going down).
But as it doesn’t, at all, you cannot make any reasonable expectations, especially just based on the number mark (3000). 
But the economy isn’t the stock market.
I think the virus unleashed some terrible economic policies, which will have a bad long term effect. The money printing is a curse. It distorts the natural balance of purchasing power in the World. Due to this, some people have more of it (undeserved), some less. This leads to ineffective allocation of resources and can result in poor economic growth. (see what happened to Japan since 1990)
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Exactly, so based on what do you set your expectations of this having been the bottom?
Goes both ways
You don’t really seem to read very attentively - I am arguing for exactly the same point - you cannot predict the stock market.
Almost like you claim you can predict the (good and bad) news in the next 6-12 months etc., and then additionally you can predict the behavioral reaction by the (most) stock market participants.
If you cannot imagine it, doesn’t mean it cannot happen.
#recencybias
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I don’t know what the future will bring, we just have to wait and see. Whatever happens, it won’t change my investment strategy (invest everything what I save in low cost index funds as soon as the money is available).
When the SP500 went below 2300 in March me and my friends were joking that I’ll invest my 2nd pillar money (with I’ll transfer to Viac in May hopefully) at 3000, only to see it drop again to 2200. We called it “Stefs theorem” which means that the market always drops big after I made a lump sum (like I did with my whole initial investment at 3300 end of 2019/beginning of 2020).
It really looks like this joke might become reality after all lol.
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It makes perfect sense.
With interest rates at near 0%, you can borrow large amounts of money for an infinite amount of time and just wait for the economy to heal. The world will not end.