Should I buy TSLA shares?

Shanghai will increase its production to 80-90k/month next month. They are aiming for 1 million cars per year. Then you have USA and Germany.

3 million cars per year with 29% margin, think about it. 2T market cap?

This Twitter user is posting some nice charts:

There are a few caveats.

  • As production grows, can they secure enough parts and materials?
  • With supply chain shortages and inflation, will it cost more to build the cars?
  • If so, will the margins suffer, or will they keep raising the prices, as they have been doing?
  • If they keep raising the prices, will there be enough demand?

Personally, I have put my Tesla purchase on hold. I think it’s just crazy that the price went up by 30% already, and am not willing to buy at these prices. At the same time, the stock price got slaughtered, which I think makes really hard to go for the car in favor of the shares, if you have some cash lying around.

That being said, I promised myself before that I would cap my total TSLA investment and not go for any more, and yet I did. Now I really should stop, because my diversification already suffers.

I think the current panic is a good buying opportunity, be it for TSLA or VT in general. If you look at the global GDP growth over centuries, it’s quite optimistic:

The curve doesn’t go straight even if it’s a logarithmic scale. How many years until we reach $1 quadrillion? How would that even be possible? I think: AGI, robots, renewable energy revolution. TSLA is active in these areas, but of course, there will be other winners too. I am very impressed by Google’s advancement in AI. It seems like the last months we see a sequence of AI research papers/demos that just blow the mind.

2 Likes

Totally.

3 Likes

When even a millionaire (and shareholder) like you is hesitant to buy a Tesla at these increased prices (plus rising interest rates. And inflation. And not unlikely a recession), you should reconsider the accuracy of these “nice charts” forecasting the future.

I don’t know where people get the money. Also for the real estate. OK I guess I know where: debt. If they can finance it, they buy it. And a Tesla “only” costs 1000 CHF per month, even at these higher prices. And we’re talking 3 million globally. You just need to reach 0.1% of global population.

I don’t need a car, it’s only for fun. It’s a luxury. Steven Mark Ryan has almost 7000 shares, and has no car, coz he lives in the middle of Sydney and doesn’t need one.

3 Likes

do they really sell ~80k Model S per year?
Last number I saw for S and X combined was 25k/yr instead of ca. 150k implied by this chart.

They made 14k in Q1 2022. This is after there was a pause in sales due to a revamp, which reignited demand.

Elon stated they will make up to 100k of X/Y per year, but only for sentimental reasons. It would be smarter to ditch these cars and focus on the large scale models. Elon predicts that 3/Y will sell up to 4 million units annually.

1 Like

Curious what the impact of Tesla’s head of AI leaving will have on the next steps for the company.

well, his “autodrive from Fremont to the customer” was a 2016 feature, which is yet to be introduced… :stuck_out_tongue:

Who is gonna buy all those cars? They are expensive. They need all the electrical refill infrastructure which in most countries is still not well developed.

Are they for USA and the new upper-middle-classes from Rusia and China?

Even in a country like Switzerland we don’t see many of them.

I guess it will depend on how fast they ban fuel cars. But still, why would people buy a Tesla which is super expensive if there will come more affordable brands?

Emmanuel Macron recently said this winter there might be cuts on electrical illumination of cities. Germany is going back to charcoal.

Asking genuinely.

1 Like

Maybe time to buy better glasses?

But I’m sure you’re right, Tesla is stupid to expand their production capacity. These expensive cars have measly 12 months of wait time between order and delivery. Surely they have no idea. Their cars are so expensive and there is no demand. And also they will never produce a more affordable car, not gonna happen.

EVs are still relatively new. Battery costs are still decreasing, car weight is dropping, energy efficiency is improving. We are constrained by battery capacity, so the batteries are mostly going to the highest margin vehicles. One battery production ramps up, you will see reduction in cost. If you want to see cheap EVs today, look at China. They have a bunch of EVs to choose from.

1 Like

I don’t understand why you took it as an attack (or responded like it was). I was genuinely asking. I don’t see teslas mate. They cost a fortune. We are about to enter an economic recession or depression + shortage of gas. My question was simple: Where and who is going to buy those cars?

I am not saying TSLA shares are not valuable or anything.

1 Like

Really? Well then that could explain.

Same as Patron, we are seeing many Teslas in our mountain resort. My bet is they’re bought first for the “luxury” factor (people want to stand out, which is, of course, not very mustachian to do but most people are not mustachians), then because they want an EV, with probably the added benefit of Tesla being the first to really build EVs reliably.

Those are just guesses, though. I don’t buy expensive cars so I wouldn’t know the thought process that goes behind it.

4 Likes

You wrote it like a typical TSLAQ guy. Take no offense, it wasn’t an attack, I was just in a sarcastic mood.

I see them everywhere, and increasingly so. But that’s subjective. So I posted you the proof that they sell like hot cakes. Still not convinced?

Do they really? How much does an Audi A4 cost? Or BMW 3, Mercedes C? Including gas and repairs?

If you drive a Tesla Model LR for 150’000-200’000km, the total cost of ownership will be somewhere around a Hyundai i30 for 30-35k.

We have our for ~3 weeks now and drove 2’500km with it. CHF 150 for charging (public, as we can’t charge at home right now). If we could charge at home, it would be CHF 75.

3 Likes

No offense mate. I don’t know what TSLAQ is but I was not bashing Tesla. I don’t have anything against it. I was genuinely wondering who buys/is going to buy them, given the factors I mentioned.

Do they really? How much does an Audi A4 cost? Or BMW 3, Mercedes C? Including gas and repairs?

The point is: Is Tesla going to replace all those Audi, BMV, Mercedes, etc. ? Both EV and Fuel models.

Is it so hard to imagine? Look at Nokia, Motorola and Sony Ericson. Where are they now?

1 Like

There is a big chance that all of current carmakers will go bankrupt.

  1. They will start losing money on their current ICE business
  2. They will fail at producing profitable EVs

You see, it’s not a problem to make a prototype. Or a nice car in general. But you need to make profit. I think so far nobody does, except Tesla. Not even the Chinese.

1 Like