I think the answer is yes, you should have bought TSLA shares in may last year. The real question now being: should you still hold?
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The question when JPow makes brrrrrrrrrrrr has another answer than when he makes only brrrr.
I haven’t looked in depth at their model, but if the results of a Monte Carlo simulation change significantly between one run and the next it means the simulation is not robustly set up. This doesn’t do anything to increase my confidence in their overall analysis.
Of course - but they’re just pulling the inputs out of their asses.
What’s the probability of 40% underwriting margin?
What’s the probability of 1bn outstanding shares by the end of 2020?
What the probability of them producing 5m or 10m cars with the envisioned capital expenditure?
You better have very good explanations for such assumptions in order to make…
…the outright predictions they are making:
Quote: “We believe that there is a 25% probability that Tesla could be worth $1,500 per share or less in 2025.”
It follows that there’s a 75% probability that Tesla will worth more than 1500 USD in 2025 (according to ARK).
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The most lightweight babies ever born weighed less than 400g at birth.
The heaviest people ever recorded on earth weighed a bit more than 600kg.
Let’s assume Bojack is is an adult Polish male between the age of 30 and 40. We also know that men on average weigh more than women, that Poles weigh more than the world average and that men’s body weights tend to increase with age to reach a maximum at age 65. Bojack also has a girlfriend and couples on average weigh more than singles. We can find the numbers of Bojack’s financial progress on the forum. He has also shared his eating habits and his above-average daily food budget - which is higher than 99.5% of the world’s population.
Based on these facts, a normal distribution and my own proprietary advanced probabilistic analysis (that I’ll be sharing on Github soon), I’d say there’s a 73% probability that Bojack will weigh more than 300kg at the time of his early retirement.
My weight target is 387kg at age 50.
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But if you want to be persuasive, you’ll use the magic of anchoring.
You’ll say that there is a “light” estimate at 150 kg, a base scenario at 300kg and a “heavy” one at 400kg. As you anticipate, the reader of your analysis will find 300kg completely exaggerated, but will choose the 150kg figure which looks so much more reasonable, being at the lowest end of a range.
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Not the kind of FatFIRE I had in mind.
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I managed to unlock that Excel file. In case you were wondering how does one achieve such hackery, you just change file extension to zip and remove the “protectWorksheet” tag from the XML files.
Also, been playing around with it. Made me laugh. Recalculate the sheet a couple of times, you get different “simulations” of the future. So here is simulation #3 that I got:
Apparently in this version of reality, Tesla has sold just short of 100 million cars by the end of 2025 
It’s funny that their parameters even allow these kind of ridiculous numbers. No wonder that the edge cases of their valuation go to $28’000 per share.
So how do we get 100 million cars? Let’s trace back the steps…
The cars produced count comes from dividing the PP&E from the last year by capex efficiency. Capex efficiency is just a draw from the normal distribution where the median is $9’000. In this case we got $8’250, so just a big under the median, not too crazy!
So in year 2024, Tesla’s PP&E grew by $250b to $465b, so naturally they produced 55 millions cars. 
OK, but how did they manage to get this PP&E?
We figure out how many cars we want to build next year (“Max annual production increase”, we got 122%) and use our cash or loan (“Percent of factory-build that will be debt funded”, we got 95%).
The debt interest is actually also included, using a randomized interest rate (we got 8%, high).
@Julianek: your concern about working capital is explained in the comment on the right hand side. They say it could be refined, but that there is always huge year end cash reserve from sales with 20-40% gross margin.
Side note: how does ARK draw these numbers? They use normal distribution. For them, bear case is ev - 1 std and bull case is ev + 1 std. So, if bear case for % of loan is 40% and bull is 80%, then median is 60% and std is 20%.
Then they cut off at minimum (0%) and maximum (95%), because normal distribution is not the correct distribution here, it would not be possible to get a negative value in reality…
So with these parameters you get a probability curve like this:
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Valuation is nuts.
ARK are retards.
Elon is mental.
Yet don’t we all wish we had rode that horse like the alpha ape who started this thread?
Well, except maybe you, who’d never touch individual stocks with your 
hands.
And that other guy who’d have felt uncompensated for the risk and got Ben Felix to back him up.
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That’s a bit unfair and unwarrantedly harsh if you ask me. You also forgot the beta mustelid who wouldn’t touch anything US with his paw. 
(although to be fair, you could classify me in the “feeling uncompensated for the risk” category).
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This makes me think about the NFT craze. Some say that there are many people who have high crypto capital gains and would like to capitalize on them, but they didn’t declare their crypto to the tax authorities. They can’t convert BTC into fiat (or into a FIAT haha…), so instead they buy these virtual works of art, NFTs. And now you can a Tesla.
I wonder how this transaction looks from a legal standpoint. Can the bitcoins be sent from any address on the blockchain, or will there be some verification? How will they make sure there is no tax evasion or money laundering involved?
PS why did a libertarian quit his job at an Italian car factory? Because he hates fiat!
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I love it, they run their own nodes and probably the payment server too (the open source software), and on top they will hold their btc. Elon really gets how it works.
If you have bitcoin, the smartest is still to convert your CHF to Btc and then to buy the Tesla 
How so? Why not pay with CHF directly? Why is it smarter to convert to BTC first? You have to watch out that between CHF=>BTC=>TESLA BTC price doesn’t go down too much 
. Or maybe the price for a Tesla is fixed for some time, only updated once an hour?
Edit: by the way, imagine sending your funds to a wrong address by mistake. $50’000 gone 
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Running a btc node is by far no miracle work…
So, if it takes off, have they found providers who’ll accept Bitcoins as a means of payment or will the Coin Master have to issue more bonds/shares in order to fund the construction of their cars, factories and projects?
Or is the Technoking running by the principle that Bitcoins are fungible and that they can sell some of those they already own if they need fiat without that making the ones they receive as payment converted into fiat?
Not that their sales revenue is that big of a part of their budget but still, I’m looking forward to see how this will unfold.
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I am talking about the mindset, not the technical prowess.
Because he said they will not convert them 
so you hold your bitcoin, Tesla hold their bitcoin, less btc liquidity, the price goes up! Another idea is to put your btc on a yield account such as Blockfi and to pay your Tesla leasing with the interest.
I think their current bitcoin stack increased in value by +$1b already, so I won’t be surprised if they sell some to fund their operations in the future.
