I’ve been quiet about it, but I bought 100 more shares at $600. So I now got 200 shares for an average cost of $500 per share. I’m excited for the forum battle of bulls vs bears 
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’ >10% of your net worth in a single stock? Ballsy! I like it! 
I’ll grab my popcorn and watch your money go to @San_Francisco 's portfolio… or the reverse.
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Rather the reverse on Monday. 
Maybe should’ve sold the two times I was healthily in the green.
But well, guess I’ll have to take it on Monday.
Buying at $600 though, takes balls like a horse though, IMO. That’s betting they grow their business hundredfold until they’re valuated similar to their peers - and that in an industry of cutthroat competition.
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- The worldwide supply of batteries is a huge bottleneck for anybody who wants to produce stuff with large batteries at scale.
- Tesla has improved production efficiency with front/rear casting, octovalve, no paint shop for cybertruck.
- An EV has far fewer components than an ICE car. Thus, it can be produced far cheaper, but it requires a different production line
- Autonomy will be solved in this decade
- Dropping prices of solar will also contribute
Eventually, EV business has the potential to be deliver much higher margins than ICE, because ICE is over 100 years old and EV business with autonomy and big screens (software) is a different beast.
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Yet even in the EV “niche” alone, Tesla is up to some serious hard competition.
It needs to beat them and all current (high) expectations to pump the price even higher.
#koreansarecoming
By the way, didn’t realize VW was already so close (even if their EV lineup is super recent, the most popular model, ID3, was only launched in September).
Tesla:
- 2019: 360k
- 2020: 500k
- 2021 target (in the vicinity of 800k / 1M: Tesla underwhelms Wall St with hazy 2021 delivery outlook, profit miss | Reuters)
VW (battery only, no hybrid):
- 2019: 76k
- 2020: 230k
- 2021 target 500k
So they’re currently one year behind but with a faster acceleration (e.g. this year will have a full year of sale for the ID3)
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A few points:
- at the same price point, Model Y has a few advantages over ID.4: range, acceleration, max speed, cargo space
- you don’t know what are the profit margins of VW
- there is enough space for a few players, Tesla does not have to get 100%
Traditional automakers pushing for electro are only going to make it easier for tesla.
You can already see the huge billboard and paper ads.
They are pushing the vision that electric cars are now mainstream.
And once people compare the models…well tesla comes out very well. Not only is better at the same price point, but you have supercharger on top of it and on top of all other networks.
The model Y in switzerland will sell like beer at the Hallenstadion. Is going to be the new octavia.
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My father has a kona electric. We are tracking together how easy it is to go around, charging, the cost.
My colleague has a model 3, and i did some road trips with both.
There is no comparison. The price, simplicity and availability and amenities of the supercharger network are far superior.
I wonder how many of the critics and shorts have done a road trip with another electric car and with a tesla.
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And when you look at their long term plan announcements, many automakers think that in 2030, ICE cars will still contribute to over 50% of their production. They have to plan this, they just can’t switch that fast. But nobody will want to buy a smelly gas car in 10 years.
Bad news for a (supposed) utility company that will be billions of dollars into solar.
That doesn’t mean much for profitability - it’s true for other automakers as well.
…like your Master Elon has been publicly lying about year after year.
Well… as close as outright lying, as you can get as CEO of a publicly listed company.
They might also hit a ceiling that’s close but not secure enough for full autonomy. Especially Tesla, who are forgoing the use of (arguably superior) LIDAR sensors.
Yeah, they’re having like a half dozen locations in the Canton of Zurich.
Yeah, 2021 will probably be the first year they’re overtaking even Dacia.
@San_Francisco have you or have you not done a 800km road trip:
- with a non tesla electric car of 200 km range
- with a non tesla electric car with 400+ km range
- with a tesla
I am not even a Tesla investor, aside from the part included in VTI. I don’t look at evaluations.
But one thing I noticed: people who did the above, end up buying tesla. They end up buying the stock. They are never going to sell it.
Sooooo in the end you can look at any kind of metric, but if people don’t sell the stock, they don’t sell it.
You can love the company and the cars and still think the company’s valuation is ludicrous. They are not mutually exclusive.
Markets don’t stay irrational forever. At some point hype dies down, competitors come into play, targets are missed, asset prices are deflated (maybe), price action becomes less appealing, etc. Even if TSLA stock is more sticky (because ~25% Musk ownership and ~30% retail ownership who have no idea what DCF is) Tesla already has and will continue to issue more shares and RSU comp over the next years, diluting existing shareholders.
If I buy a car in the next decade it will most likely be a Tesla. But I will also go short with a relative trade if it jumps higher. 
I haven’t.
Neither many other people.
I doubt it’s many people, let alone “normal” car buyers. A few enthusiasts, sure.
Is range important for overall acceptance of electric cars as a viable alternative to ICE cars? Definitely! Are 800km road trips a major selling point for any electric car? Or a decision criterion for any buyer? Probably more than they’ll actually be used for such long trips. Relatively speaking.
Who is honestly going to say: “That car’s so great for 800km trips - that’s why I need to by a Tesla!”?
Sure, among the people who are into such road trips and at the same time dead set on buying an EV: Many. But overall… not so many. Anyone who is into (or considering) such long road trips will better buy an ICE car for the foreseeable future.
Me, I’d rather the a high-speed train for that distance.
Especially if a reliable robotaxi is picking me up from the station, to drive the last mile.
Its price on the stock exchange however is determined by the price it has been sold.
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True enough to the original Nikola Tesla vibe, nice.
Thinking about selling QQQ and going back to just holding VTI for US stocks.
Every sector has the same expected return, right? So there is no point in overweighting tech stocks.
Well, it’s not as if you’d want to believe anything else, do you?
So there is no point in selling QQQ to invest in VTI either, is there?
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Well there is. My sector weights aren’t matching the global market cap weights, so I’m adding idiosyncratic risk?
I would like to believe something else, if my views are proven to be wrong. I’m a man of science, not a man of religion.
I think Ben Felix would offer a differing opinion. These are very particular stock that go into NASDAQ 100. Probably the exposure to factors is different that in VTI.