Should I buy TSLA shares?

Yeah well.

ICE carmakers have constant recalls and problems. Media: meh, who cares.

It happens to Tesla. Media: OH MYY GOOOD!!!

Next time invest in an EV maker which has no products on the market, safer this way.

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Why would the market care? Wasn’t the issue in the media months ago already? https://www.zdnet.com/article/tesla-touchscreen-problems-these-model-s-and-x-memory-units-are-under-fire-for-failures/

Why I don’t view Tesla as a car company, but a collection of many different startups.

Here’s my chart of how I view the Tesla company structure. (Feel free to copy and adapt)

And here’s my video about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnYQMoc3pvI

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Well, theoretically a stock’s valuation is the sum its future cashflows.

For good or worse, it did not happen to their engines or transmission. So not to the core components of the car, but rather the fancy electronics they built-in - that could just as well used in any conventional ICE car.

Wait… wasn’t Tesla supposed to be a revolutionary software company though?

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You’re so biased. The issue is related to a piece of hardware in older models. Tesla’s software potential applies to full self driving and the capability to build a large car entertainment platform. Somehow you connect the two.

Yes and no.

Firstly, it is a well-known fact that eMMC NAND Flash has very limited write cycles (though you can get much better hardware than Tesla if you pay more).

Secondly, the issue has been known for a while. Tesla seems to have greatly exacerbated the issue by writing verbose and (it seems) superfluous logging data to these flash cells.

It’s a very common and well-known issue in operating systems running on embedded systems that even I am familiar with, though I don’t work in computer engineering. Simply put: shoddy software.

To reiterate for the less technologically inclined:

  • It’s a hardware component where you can go “cheap” or more expensive and higher endurance.
  • It’s a hardware component whose time to fail hugely (and well-known) depends on its usage.
  • And Tesla’s software did exacerbate the problem by avoidable overuse of that component.

How am I supposed to trust their self-driving software and believe in the capabilities of their entertainment system if they fail to design even the very basics of their embedded systems for longevity?

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@San_Francisco are you shorting TSLA? The level of knowledge against Tesla is impressive

It was heavily discussed in various tech forums when the issue surfaced in Nov.

Alright, I get what you mean after the explanation. I have to say, it doesn’t look good for Tesla, especially if they’re trying to build long lasting, low maintenance cars.

On the other hand, look at their full self driving hardware. You had HW1, then HW2, now HW3. The Tesla I’m driving will soon get an upgrade to HW3. So maybe they didn’t put so much weight on great hardware components, because electronics go out of date soon and so instead they made their cars upgradeable. I mean, I have not heard about other carmakers replacing some old chips in 5-year old cars. Yet in Model S you can pay to upgrade your infotainment system.

Oh come on, the issue was simply that some engineer left the log level of some binaries at debug level, stupid human error. Certainly less bad than maliciously building some defeat devices for emission test cycles…

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I wouldn’t dare shorting TSLA (…I think?). :wink:
That’s like arguing with unreasonable people.

As regards the knowledge, I had read about the NAND Flash issue here on this thread - I have installed and am running NAND-Flash based computing devices myself (though not in any professional capacity).

Most probably. So where else did they leave something out (or on), due to stupid human error, only to impact their customers a few years later? With self-driving systems, that stupid human error could (literally) turn into a life-and-death situation.

I think I have been saying this earlier: It may be an innovative car - yet from all the reviews and news, it just looks (and reads) hurriedly put together.

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When Tesla was at 155 billion market cap, 8 months ago lol.

Do us a favor and update your best guess prediction for 2025/2030. Let’s have something to laugh about in 12 months :wink:

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if they get to 10T+ market cap within the next 10 years lol.

So I guess based on your track record we should expect that within 12 months Tesla will go bankrupt :smiley:

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I wouldn’t be surprised if it is 200 Billion in 2030.

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At least 1T end of 2021

I urge everybody to watch this video (especially @San_Francisco ). Wind, Solar & Batteries are getting exponentially cheaper, and will continue this trend until 2030. We will end up in a World with 3-5x power capacity of today, but at a lower cost than today. Can you just imagine the implications? I used to think that maybe nuclear power makes sense, but if this trend continues, then we won’t need to care about nuclear. Think about all the existing energy & tech that will find itself in a negative feedback loop. I think many people still can’t see this.

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21 posts were split to a new topic: Nuclear Fission: good or bad