You are forgetting that Tesla has thousands of Terabyte of video + location information on hundreds of thousands of owner, for billions of driven miles.
Just the datalake they have and how you could use that data for:
autonomnous driving
consumer habit
advertising
ressource planning
battery usage in real-world, which is incredibly difficult/expensive to simulate in a lab
voice samples to improve voice recognition and control in a car
and this datalake is growing. How much would an apple or amazon be ready to pay simply to access that data, which is growing Terabytes per day? I’m betting at least 100 billions. Which makes up one third of the evaluation and that without counting other assets/technology etc.
I have no doubt that Tesla will be the first to reach full autonomy:
They are vertically integrated: make their own hardware and software.
They are collecting millions of miles of footage, nobody else has this.
Their cars that are on the road are already technically capable of self-driving.
They are the only car company with over the air software updates.
So yes, maybe the competition will follow, but Tesla will have a head start. And in that time they can build their robotaxi network and expand their in-car entertainment system. Time is money and Tesla will have your attention for the duration of the autonomous ride.
Provided that this head start in time is not eaten by the regulatory ramblings / obstruction and in the meantime, the competition catches up or is closely behind.
Probably not happen frequently but can happen like wrong way car on highway. How this algorithm react pretty cool to test these cases on a simulator ?
It’s why car are passive only emergency break if you can’t avoid the collision or something like that.
In real life, there’s always someone responsible. Human can choose and he his responsible of these acts. Someone have already save his life and his child by not brake but steeped up. He his alive but the other driver not. It’s why I can’t trust to computer with human driver too much problem. 100% human with a lot of problems or 100% computers without any problems or only due bug.
I’m not sure how much of that is allowed under current and future data protection laws. I could totally see a young lawyer taking it up with Tesla to build their resume…
Their arguments are that when TSLA gets added to the S&P500 there will be many index funds which are „forced“ to invest in Tesla due to tracking the index. That should bring some 40B USD which want to buy TSLA shares. Plus some other hedge funds might bring an additional 60B USD because they cover S&P500 in some form. That suddenly gives TSLA another 30%+ upside potential (400B instead of 300B market cap) and then the stock predictions with it going towards 7k USD per share suddenly don’t seem to be that utopical anymore.
They reported a profit yesterday after market close. Which means 4 quarters of profit in a row.
As you can see from the price action today that was already priced in. But good luck.
Everything tanked today. I don’t understand how a future 40B USD demand of the stock could be priced in. Is your expectation that the stock price will stay the same with the inflowing money?
Why do you think other investors didn’t reach the same conclusions as you (and probably earlier). Trying to front run index inclusion is well known, if it’s profitable there’s probably a lot of people trying to benefit from it. (And that’s assuming people managing funds following the index are not also actively trying to benefit they can also hedge the inclusion)
I watch all videos from Now You Now, but unfortunately Zack and Jesse don’t seem to be stock market gurus. Not even once in the last weeks dis they mention that the current price is so high, because s&p 500 inclusion is already priced in.
Graham Stephan made a bit more research and he said it in his video.
I watched the video you posted yesterday and it also gave me a huge FOMO, but 10 shares, let’s be honest, it’s not going to make or break you.
But even Zack and Jesse mentioned that Tesla can just issue as many stocks as needed, to cover the s&p 500 etf demand, raising huge capital, but this will not raise the price of one share.
I know, it’s crazy. Everybody is posting a loss, and Tesla still records a profit in the middle of Covid-19. And Fiat gladly pays Tesla almost $500 million in EU fines, because they’re too slackish to develop their own electric cars.
I wonder how realistic it is that we will see a series of bankruptcies of largest automakers in the following years. If you think why they didn’t innovate earlier, it’s because they are afraid to cannibalize on their own ICE car sales. They have huge cost structures devoted to ICE car sales and they can’t just on the spot say F*** U to dealerships, factory workers. Some even say the easiest way for them to convert into EV companies would be to fund a start up and on a green field, and once it has succeeded, rebrand it and just ditch the legacy part. Sounds too revolutionary and that’s why we can expect that these companies will slowly drive themselves to the ground. Their managers either don’t have the balls or the power to make such a step.
I even think that the whole fossil fuel lobby has some significant say/stake in most ICE companies and give them incentives (bribes?) to not fully convert.
In all honesty, why would Tesla drop to under 1000? I guess we would have to find out that this picture of Elon & Ghislane Maxwell is not a coincidence, or some other bombshell like this. In that case, I don’t know if it would be smart to invest.
Because reality kicks in? (i.e. expectations set that define the current price turn out not to be realized)
Good luck to them (and their investors) nevertheless.
I am still a sceptic, but we need all sides here in the discussion IMO.
That’s untrue.
For one counterexample (which suffices to beat the “everybody” claim), MSFT posted earnings beat and revenue growth.
And there are others, with more solid underlying businesses to boot.
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and that without counting other assets/technology etc.
(i.e. expectations set that define the current price turn out not to be realized)