Should I buy TSLA shares?

You picked lousy examples to bring absolutely nothing into the discussion.

How about FAANGs? They have been considered overpriced for the last 10 years and yet the companies keep on delivering.

If you had invested in all the losers you just mentioned plus the FAANGs, you’d still win BIG even if half of your portfolio went to zero.

Unless of course you chose to trim the winners and reinvest in losers …

Damn, they are just keeping it up.

Wouldn’t be surprised if they surpass Apple in market cap soon.

TSLA stock is doing well because of the potential ahead to be a disruptor with the autonomous car. Then all growth stocks are going crazy because the interest rates are lower than ever (making the value of future money closer to the value today) and the Fed and most central banks are printing money like crazy - no fear of bankrupcies.

At some point this insane valuation will halt for TSLA, and while it will not crash and burn, probably there will be a correction and then be pretty flat in the next couple of years.

It’s very easy to look at the past graph and said “If I had bought there…”. Now, try cover the future of the graph from the “there” point of time and imagine it’s today. It’s no longer an easy decision.

At the same time, it’s better to invest in 10 companies in all time highs, that in 10 in all time lows. Overall the trend will be kept, and you want to be in the ones going up!

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I will tell myself to NOT buy single stocks till Tesla reaches 10T market cap in 2030 lol.

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The price was already at $1760, now it dropped to $1500. Still, I feel so bad that I wanted to buy and even made a whole topic about and in the end I didn’t buy and the stock price exploded. You can say that it is pure coincidence, but I totally get it why the price exploded :slight_smile:

We could invest 5% of our portfolio in Tesla. This 5% might grow faster than the whole rest in the coming decades, who knows.

I’d be getting TSLA as a part of ARKK or ARKW etf. It somehow feels better to buy a bag of bubbles instead of just one :-).

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Or maybe just go with QQQ :smiley:

TSLA is only 3% of QQQ

I know but QQQ was great in general. If I would like to do some “stock-picking”, I would probably just pick QQQ as an active bet.

Quite crazy to think that you needed 15 years to see a positive return, if you bought during the dotcom bubble. That requires quite a strong mindset of passive investing.

Only if you invested a lump sum and never invested regulary. So not a real world scenario for us.

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN24F1T5

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Impartial justice, it’s certainly just a coincidence that is the country of VW, BMW, Daimler…

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I have no horse in this race, but here’s a different, less system critical take (stolen from here):

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You know that this requirement is EU-only? Tesla can keep the lane in a curve, keep the speed, keep the distance behind a slower vehicle, overtake a slower vehicle. They just don’t do everything because of regulations. And they keep improving. Like, with the latest update, Tesla will stop at a red light. I believe the name Autopilot is not misleading, because the Autopilot in planes is also used with exception of take off and landing. This is very similar to Tesla. You drive onto and off the motorway, and there Tesla can drive for a long time unassisted.

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Call it however you wish, but the point is that TSLA’s current valuation is all based on the expectation that at some point Autopilot will be 100% (and that nobody else will be able to replicate full autopilot, and competition won’t drive return on investment to mediocre levels).

Otherwise, the only way TSLA has proven to reliably make money so far is:

  • trading carbon emission credits (being subsidized by ICE automakers through legislation)
  • selling S3XY short shorts.

Hardly a way to justify a $300 billion valuation.

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It took more than a decade for people to accept the valuations of FB, AMZN, APPL. Nobody is talking about them being a bubble now. Zuckerberg, Bezos, Jobs. Was it a good idea to bet against these founder-visionaries? I guess not.

I’m willing to give Elon Musk the benefit of doubt. After all, this is the guy who gave us Paypal, Tesla and launched a damn car into outer space onboard of his own SpaceX rocket.

If he manages to execute his ideas of revolutionizing the battery technology, solar power infrastructure while colonizing Mars along the way, the reality may catch up with the valuations way faster than most anticipate.

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With the “subtle” difference that those three businesses were actually cash cows. Even AMZN, which, at first sight, showed very little earnings (so it had P/E around 100) was using an accounting trick to minimize taxes so it could reinvest all of its cash in R&D for new ventures. Here doing the same with TSLA gives in the best case a P/E of 300…

Now as said earlier, i agree that Musk is a genius and had already proven that he could do a lot of engineering prowesses.

However, i stick to my guns that at current valuations, TSLA shareholders are implying that:

  • TSLA will indeed reach 100% full autonomous driving rather soonish
  • That Musk will keep on his autonomous driving promise, not like the lies he made with Solar City (*).
  • if TSLA does not reach full autonomous driving, then it will be just another unprofitable automaker, whose value will be at most its book value per share, i.e $32 per share.
  • TSLA needs it quite soon because it will need enormous amount of capital to build all its planned giga-factories. If the cash does not come from the business, it will come from shareholder fans, at the price of a huge dilution.
  • No competitor will be able to reach autonomous driving as well
  • Competition will not drive returns on capital at low level, as they usually do (that is, the majority of users will want to use TSLA rather than its competition. Hint: transportation being a commodity, this won’t happen. (**))
  • Musk’s compensation will not siphon away earnings from shareholders. (I have my doubt as well… The recent option grant gave Musk more money that the total aggregated earnings of all TSLA history. And there are still more than 20 other such grants planned in the future. Hard to see what cash will be left for the minority shareholders).

In a nutshell, at current valuation the stock is priced for perfection (nothing bad will ever happen). And shareholders are playing a game of selling to a greater fool. But this game can be profitable for quite some time though. Anyway, i would not sleep well at night owning this business.

(*) before you dismiss the author as another Musk hater, Bethany McLean was the journalist who unraveled the Enron fraud six months before it went bankrupt back in the days. So she knows one or two things about stuffs that don’t make sense.
(**) I could see why people would want to own a TSLA as a social status. However, we are not talking about owning a Tesla here, but driving someone else’s Tesla used as a taxi once the vehicles are fully autonomous. The social signalling goes away in this case.

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I though too, but my friend in Spain ordered the Cybertruck with the full “autopilot” and not only the “autonomous driving”. So at least in Spain on the website it is allowed and sold.