I think I mostly already am at my target allocation (for the taxable assets), which is about 3/4 the stock picked portfolio, 1/8 ex US equity (VXUS) and the rest in bonds (BND, BNDX, VDET).
The allocation doesn’t have some big return theory behind it, it’s just what I feel comfortable with and what produces the cash flow that I need as income.
For dividend (growth) stocks I try to pick those that reliably pay, and ideally keep raising their dividend. I’ve linked to my picks in this post. The topic of said post also discusses how I (and others) arrive at potential picks.
I haven’t run the numbers to compare to pension return, but I would accept a lower return on my portfolio in order to pass on an inheritance. As it stands today, the (entire taxable) portfolio returns 4.3%. When I’m eligible to withdraw capital from pillar 2 (or the Freizügigkeitsstiftungen), I’ll aim at investing with an initial 3% return, most likely into the stock picked portion of the portfolio.
I don’t know how to compare to AHV, as regardless of what I paid in I’ll get a mostly fixed amount out starting 2033.
Full retirement is hopefully earlier than 2033 … I’m reducing from 50% to 10% starting next year (tomorrow!), and depending on how comfortable I’ll feel with this setup I might dump the remaining 10% in a couple of years as well.
YoY sum says 17% gain in stocks and 16% in 3A, pretty damn good. Onwards and upwards.
Edit: probably not super accurate, I’d planned of doing some sort of analysis of what % did the 2023 tranche do, what did individual tranches in 2024 did etc but in the end can’t be arsed, it’s just EoY value of 2023 vs EoY 2024.
I’ll still have to deal with real estate this year so not much will be invested in stocks but things should start to normalize in 2026 if life pretends to be normal until there.
YTD 30% + 436k (approx. 150k where savings, the rest stock market performance). Had to raise my expenses due to health issues, but the performance kept me well above my FIRE-Nr. ;-):
Preliminary, that is +36% YoY, with roughly 21% asset return (with individual stock picks somewhat underperforming) plus new savings. New savings in 2024 went already more towards 1e pension fund with lower equity exposure and increasing share of uninvested cash, and I plan to repeat that in 2025 (market timing, expecting some turmoil once Trump is acting president).
Having reached my lean fire target in early 2024, and given that reaching my actual fire target in 2025 is pretty much guaranteed (unless there is a severe market crash), the main goal for 2025 is to switch to a less demanding job, at the cost of course of also exiting an extremely well paid job. Let’s see if that works out. Happy new year to everyone!
My target allocation was 66% shares, 34% other asset classes, and with at most 500k CHF in the stock-picking portfolio. I undershot the share allocation a little bit in the end (63%) to finance the down-payment for an apartment, but it’s still within acceptable tolerances.
I’m now comfortably over my FIRE target. It might become harder and harder to justify working, but I don’t have a fixed RE date set yet.
Quick explanation: In October 2024 I withdrew 50k from my 3rd pillar to reduce the mortgage (thus increase home equity). I did that because I’m in the process of selling this apartment and will use the freed-up funds to invest in ETFs in my taxable account. I’m assuming I’ll sell the apartment by June 2025.
A little background: 2021 and 2022 were transitional years for my girlfriend and me. We were either studying, interning, trying to get a permanent job, or struggling to keep ourselves healthy. We gritted our teeth to achieve our goals.
The year 2023 was our first year with our first real jobs and steady salaries. We used this year to save as much as we could, to indulge ourselves, to make necessary and useful purchases, and other useless ones that gave us pleasure.
The year 2024 was a year of financial stabilization, we were still employed, and I passed my bar exam. I took the opportunity to look for a new job, which I’ll start in March 2025. My little bag of crypto also worked wonders!
We can definitely see a “drastic” change in our fortunes starting in 2023! However, it’s possible that this evolution will slow down this year, as my girlfriend has signed a permanent contract, but will be paid less (she was on a temporary contract before, with terrible social conditions, but well paid). As for me, I’ll be at 80% this year (hoping to reach 100% soon). Our expenses will increase because of me, as I’ll have to rent a room at my future place of work. It’s going to be a bit of a shakeup, but we should be okay.
YoY: Change in net worth = +CHF 126’331.91 / +48.6% (stat from YNAB).
Almost hit 40k after owning a nice motorbike bought in september 2022 and after buying a car in may 2024 (way too expensive one but that was ok for me). If I count my vehicles with a correct depriciation in my net worth (my car will be amortised in 3 years), it goes up to 60k which is really nice at 20yo.
That net worth will grow way faster now due to the end of my apprenticeship in july.
Congrats! Just wondering about the near-zero stock allocation in 2016 but still suffering the drop of the 2008 crisis? I assume you were heavy on stocks back then?
2008 was a personal crisis, with separation and preparation for a potentially ugly divorce. I gave back a generous gift from my parents to avoid it being treated as marital asset by the court. Luckily, it never got ugly and focussed on the wellbeing of our son.
Thanks! I didn’t expect it to happen so quickly… I initially dreamed of FIRE at the age of 45 and achieved it with 34…
About 40% of my net worth came from a startup exit, while the rest was built through a solid job, a frugal lifestyle, and an aggressive savings rate of 60-70% after taxes. So without the startup (or that startup failing) that would have been a different story.
I calculate the FIRE-Nr like this: Yearly expenses (without income taxes) x 25
This is based on the 4% rule, one could as well multiply with 28.57 to have a 3.5 withdrawal rate. I just used it for motivation purposes, not sure which withdrawal rate I will use once I pull the trigger.
Interesting point re. Taxes. I tend to agree that, given there was no Capital Gains Tax and taxable dividend yield was minor (vs. capital gains), taxes was less a challenge. But at the same time, there is AHV and Wealth Tax. So the picture becomes a bit fuzzy. Are you sure that this holds? Or should we not rather say that if we assumed 4% SWR, the effective, consumable SWR was only something like 1% lower (0.5% Wealth Tax, 0.3% Dividend Tax, 0.2% AHV)? So… the prudent (for a 4% SWRer) view was that you need 33 times expenses (net of tax)?
You are absolutely right, counting no taxes or ahv at all would not hold.
In my case, I have other expenses linked to my work, like childcare, commuting, etc. which will cover easily for the post fire taxes - therefore I just took the lazy shortcut
A data point from that other group that we rarely talk about.
My lucrative exit story was up to a pretty good start with an IPO making a bunch of paper money into ~$5M unvested and pre-tax, 1/4 of which were going to vest in a month. When that month passed, it was already down 40%. That was still good, but as I was mentally anchored at the highest figure I saw in my E*TRADE account, I basically watched it slide down into nothingness (i.e. 1/15 of that highest figure) without liquidating anything.
It used to haunt me even as I kept telling myself “Selling at that low of a price wouldn’t have been life-changing anyway” for some time. Now I am at peace with it - sold half of it at a relatively low price and have kept the other half as a sort of lottery ticket, adding it with a discount to my net worth. FIRE target moved from ~38 to ~50, but as long as me and the family are healthy I’m one happy and content SOB.
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Just wondering about the near-zero stock allocation in 2016 but still suffering the drop of the 2008 crisis? I assume you were heavy on stocks back then?
