the thing that makes me be careful with tobacco is that the current generation seems to be getting healthier. drinking less. etc. so i do wonder if revenues/profits will rapidly decline at some point.
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I see children with those plastic sucks and they are probably even legal in Switzerland. Gateway drug.
No, thanks for smokingâŠ
This year my cash flow from market dividends is almost 3 times the regular dividends. And market dividends are free of taxâŠ
MO is on buy, but is too big to buy more at the moment. I only add to positions that are less than 4% of my portfolio.
Trigger warning:
Are you quoting from a 1980 aerobic commercial shot on a California beach starring Olivia Newton John? Once a secret idol of mine even as I probably didnât even know her name or so, but maybe heard a song and saw a picture in (physical, i.e. printed) Bravo magazine at one of my friends who were allowed to read/own the publication.
When I was a teenager in mid 1980âs we would be forced in (public) school to see in 8th or 9th grade anti smoking campaign videos featuring one of the Marlboro men giving interviews with a throat microphone (as obviously he got sick with larygeal cancer).
Hat tip to the school authorities at the time as it definitely worked with me never wanting to smoke (because of those videos). Not that I expect to live any longer because I donât smoke, but Iâm still kind of glad.
Yeah, and about that current generation ⊠I wonder if youâll change your mind once your kids enter teenage territory. I was kind of surprised how many of my sonâs friends smoke, vape, etc.
Perhaps the revenue from LVMH has been declining, but from what I personally observe these kids absolutely want to consume their shit. Maybe itâs not Hennessy, but theyâll have their vape.
See MOâs earnings curve above.
Q.E.D. 
I liked the 70âs or 80âs feeling of the trailer I clicked into.
But to be clear: I would actually prefer people to not consume products that advance their likelihood of death (not just for selfish reasons like them being able to contribute to my pension and AHV for longer. Or, wait, should I be interested in them perishing earlier so they wonât be beneficiaries of AHV âŠ? Anyway âŠ)
I more strongly believe these people should have the choice to do whatever they like including deciding what they consume.
I have my opinion on how smart that is, but who am I to pass any judgement.
Yep, same boat.
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I wonder how much of the younger generation smoking less is also different per countries. While I have no clue about generational development, my impression is that people in Switzerland smoke a lot, compared to e.g. Anglo-Saxon countries.
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no worry⊠my friends and I are compensating them by largeâŠ
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I may be wrong, but MO went down a lot when they said to go out of the cigarettes market. Donât know by when, but seems that all the youngsters now suck on MOâs overpriced plastic sucks. Children first without and later with all the addicting drugsâŠ
You mean âPhyyysical, phyyysicalâ
I was wondering why you have the whole column âfrom MAXâ in red. Itâs just frightening. That column should be in the minus by design 
Or not? Mt is in green. Then I donât understand it 
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But isnât the earnings growth through price increases on declining volumes? This is not a sustainable model, as there is a limit to how much you can increase prices on your current addicted customers and anyway you are literally killing your current customers, so you need newer generations to take up smoking.
I think the googlefinance function âhighâ does not include the actual day for the high. So, if it is green it is at a new high. Had to get used to that tooâŠ
With the actual day included it should be red all the timesâŠ
Checking⊠yes, it is at a high:
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Just checked the formula: I add the dividend to the actual value, but not to the high. Not exactly fair. I donât use that number in my formulas, it is just for info/fun. But it means the number can stay green even if the price is slightly under the high.
It did really reach the 500% and I wondered why the captain did not make me take some of that money. Went down quiet some since then.
Results that it is still on buy, even I bought a double position already. Whenever I really need to buy and find no other company⊠there I go for the triple!
And sorry, Oil stocks are that easy. Whenever a new âlandman seasonâ starts, prices go up.
And Iâm doing quiet well as an Oil Sheikh. The XIRR (which doesnât mean much after only such a short time) for those stocks:
BORR: 3560%
HP: 811%
NBR: 131%
CVI: 81%
PBF: 43%
OIS: 23%
VIST: 75% (that is the only real one, because it is already in my possession for 51 months).
Just some funny numbers, Iâm back in Switzerland and sitting over the fog in the sun. XIRR only makes sense after some years, I donât expect the oil stocks doing that well for a very long time. We will seeâŠ
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Yesterday I had to correct my bookkeeping. The problem was divvydiary.com which since some time did not deduct the withholding tax from dividends in the free version (it used to before). In the paid version you can choose if they should deduct it or not.
Now, I use only one IB account for both of my mechanical strategies. I did usually add the net dividends to the cash and deducted the debt interest from the cash of my dividend strategy and the rest went into the momentum strategy in my bookkeeping. The total is always given by the real account, so I have some cross control.
Now I had to correct this for the withholding tax of all dividends of this year. That means the momentum strategy did perform slightly better and the dividend strategy slightly worse than I measured (the total performance was correct).
This are the new numbers per today:
Dividend: YTD 19.54%, XIRR since 2014 11.06%, XIRR since 2020 14.0%
Momentum: YTD 24.18%, XIRR since 2020 27.45%
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Gets a bit boring here, about 45 days without any action. Is my captain on holidays?
Watching landman and enjoying Billy Bob Thorntons sayings. Cartel leader: âWonder if there is more money in oil or in drugsâ, Billy Bob (Tommy): âJust go to Acapulco, then to Dubai. You tell meâ.
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Momentum strategy:
And my captân did wake up for a moment from hibernation and found me another oil stock.
Bought Liberty Energy today. Frack baby, frack..
And finally I could sell Mosaic with a loss of 32%. Ouch, but at least I got rid of it.
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Nice first day with my for Liberty. An attack on Venezuela gets more probable every day. 4 best performers today are oil stocksâŠ
But then things can change on the blink of an eye.
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And I know it deep in my heart: you all are waiting for my report. Sorry, had to sleep a littleâŠ
Momentum Strategy:
Actual margin 136.66%.
Performance 2025 20.12%, XIRR since 2020 26.55%. Not that good a year for this strategy. But still better than the indices:
Performance 2025 / XIRR since 2020: SP500 16.39%/13.31%, Dow 12.97%/9.06%, Nasdaq 20.17%/19.33%, Russell2000 11.29%/6.84%.
Table:
And position sizes:
Now for my âMOFO home portfolioâ (that is how I call my dividend strategy sometimes)
Portfolio: finviz
Dividends: F,CNA,CMI,JNJ,MET,EMR,IBM,PRU,DD,Q,O,VTRS,PFG,GILD,LMT, AVGO.
No trades in December.
Margin multiplier: 100.35%, almost no debt.
Performance 2025 18.37%, XIRR since 2014 10.93%, since 2020 13.73%
Carry premium: 11.56%, new record year.
Positions, dividends and sectors:
So actually it has been a very good year for this strategy (18.37%) and kind of mediocre for the momentum strategy (20.12%), even the pure numbers are higher for the momentum strategy.
BTW: I write down the XIRR since 2014 because I started then with the divi portfolio. However, in 2020 I made some changes that had a big impact on performance, that is why I publish the XIRR since 2020 too.
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Momentum strategy: Same procedure as every year, James.
Partly sold Alignment Healthcare, 3rd year the first trade of the year. The yearly rent is due at a plus of 137%.
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