You mean “Phyyysical, phyyysical”
I was wondering why you have the whole column “from MAX” in red. It’s just frightening. That column should be in the minus by design 
Or not? Mt is in green. Then I don’t understand it 
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But isn’t the earnings growth through price increases on declining volumes? This is not a sustainable model, as there is a limit to how much you can increase prices on your current addicted customers and anyway you are literally killing your current customers, so you need newer generations to take up smoking.
I think the googlefinance function “high” does not include the actual day for the high. So, if it is green it is at a new high. Had to get used to that too…
With the actual day included it should be red all the times…
Checking… yes, it is at a high:
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Just checked the formula: I add the dividend to the actual value, but not to the high. Not exactly fair. I don’t use that number in my formulas, it is just for info/fun. But it means the number can stay green even if the price is slightly under the high.
It did really reach the 500% and I wondered why the captain did not make me take some of that money. Went down quiet some since then.
Results that it is still on buy, even I bought a double position already. Whenever I really need to buy and find no other company… there I go for the triple!
And sorry, Oil stocks are that easy. Whenever a new “landman season” starts, prices go up.
And I’m doing quiet well as an Oil Sheikh. The XIRR (which doesn’t mean much after only such a short time) for those stocks:
BORR: 3560%
HP: 811%
NBR: 131%
CVI: 81%
PBF: 43%
OIS: 23%
VIST: 75% (that is the only real one, because it is already in my possession for 51 months).
Just some funny numbers, I’m back in Switzerland and sitting over the fog in the sun. XIRR only makes sense after some years, I don’t expect the oil stocks doing that well for a very long time. We will see…
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Yesterday I had to correct my bookkeeping. The problem was divvydiary.com which since some time did not deduct the withholding tax from dividends in the free version (it used to before). In the paid version you can choose if they should deduct it or not.
Now, I use only one IB account for both of my mechanical strategies. I did usually add the net dividends to the cash and deducted the debt interest from the cash of my dividend strategy and the rest went into the momentum strategy in my bookkeeping. The total is always given by the real account, so I have some cross control.
Now I had to correct this for the withholding tax of all dividends of this year. That means the momentum strategy did perform slightly better and the dividend strategy slightly worse than I measured (the total performance was correct).
This are the new numbers per today:
Dividend: YTD 19.54%, XIRR since 2014 11.06%, XIRR since 2020 14.0%
Momentum: YTD 24.18%, XIRR since 2020 27.45%
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Gets a bit boring here, about 45 days without any action. Is my captain on holidays?
Watching landman and enjoying Billy Bob Thorntons sayings. Cartel leader: “Wonder if there is more money in oil or in drugs”, Billy Bob (Tommy): “Just go to Acapulco, then to Dubai. You tell me”.
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Momentum strategy:
And my capt’n did wake up for a moment from hibernation and found me another oil stock.
Bought Liberty Energy today. Frack baby, frack..
And finally I could sell Mosaic with a loss of 32%. Ouch, but at least I got rid of it.
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Nice first day with my for Liberty. An attack on Venezuela gets more probable every day. 4 best performers today are oil stocks…
But then things can change on the blink of an eye.
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And I know it deep in my heart: you all are waiting for my report. Sorry, had to sleep a little…
Momentum Strategy:
Actual margin 136.66%.
Performance 2025 20.12%, XIRR since 2020 26.55%. Not that good a year for this strategy. But still better than the indices:
Performance 2025 / XIRR since 2020: SP500 16.39%/13.31%, Dow 12.97%/9.06%, Nasdaq 20.17%/19.33%, Russell2000 11.29%/6.84%.
Table:
And position sizes:
Now for my “MOFO home portfolio” (that is how I call my dividend strategy sometimes)
Portfolio: finviz
Dividends: F,CNA,CMI,JNJ,MET,EMR,IBM,PRU,DD,Q,O,VTRS,PFG,GILD,LMT, AVGO.
No trades in December.
Margin multiplier: 100.35%, almost no debt.
Performance 2025 18.37%, XIRR since 2014 10.93%, since 2020 13.73%
Carry premium: 11.56%, new record year.
Positions, dividends and sectors:
So actually it has been a very good year for this strategy (18.37%) and kind of mediocre for the momentum strategy (20.12%), even the pure numbers are higher for the momentum strategy.
BTW: I write down the XIRR since 2014 because I started then with the divi portfolio. However, in 2020 I made some changes that had a big impact on performance, that is why I publish the XIRR since 2020 too.
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Momentum strategy: Same procedure as every year, James.
Partly sold Alignment Healthcare, 3rd year the first trade of the year. The yearly rent is due at a plus of 137%.
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See, that’s where you and I differ: you’re the optimist, I’m the pessimist.
Let’s not go upstairs after dinner.
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Wow, yesterday I mentioned the U.S. could repossess the stolen oil companies in Venezuela. Today this seems already done, Maduro captured and the new president, supposedly Maria Corina Machado surely has agreed to some terms in advance to this operation.
Wonder what my many oil stocks will do Monday. They may do anything, short time there may be a rise but long term the biggest oil reserves in the world are ready for production. As I see it the industry is in a lousy state, frozen 20 years ago and hardly maintained. But that will change now!
But then many of my oil stocks are in the business of selling shovels, infrastructure. And that is exactly what is needed there…
I have spent a wonderful time in Venezuela in the 80’s, was gold rush atmosphere and Venezuela was called the Switzerland of South America. The rest is politics and we don’t want that here…
An oil war just seems so surreal. Does the Trump Administration want to power all their new data centres with oil boilers? It is not 2003 anymore. The economy is a different one today. Arent the scarce resources today rare earths and perhaps electricity production down the line?
Maybe. But then, why my capt’n made me buy that much oil stocks? All the analysts said the price of oil will go down down down…
I have no idea and probably nobody has. I guess I will make some money Monday but then I’m more interested in long term gains. And I don’t care if they are higher.
(Source)
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The headline is slightly misleading, it aligns more with the start of the sanction (so yeah you could say the change of regime is to blame, but that’s stretching it somewhat, it really only declined with the sanctions which was somewhat later after Chavez got power).
(Source)
(and share of the market might be more telling, since they’re part of OPEC so want to avoid dumping too much oil)
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Perhaps it was because of drugs? Oh, no it wasn’t…
Trump grants “full and complete pardon” for convicted ex-Honduran president
In general, when something like this (Venezuela) happens, it’s worthwhile to critically look the OTHER direction to see if there’s something from which attention was supposed to be distracted. Will be interesting to see how things play out.
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