Wow, yesterday I mentioned the U.S. could repossess the stolen oil companies in Venezuela. Today this seems already done, Maduro captured and the new president, supposedly Maria Corina Machado surely has agreed to some terms in advance to this operation.
Wonder what my many oil stocks will do Monday. They may do anything, short time there may be a rise but long term the biggest oil reserves in the world are ready for production. As I see it the industry is in a lousy state, frozen 20 years ago and hardly maintained. But that will change now!
But then many of my oil stocks are in the business of selling shovels, infrastructure. And that is exactly what is needed thereâŠ
I have spent a wonderful time in Venezuela in the 80âs, was gold rush atmosphere and Venezuela was called the Switzerland of South America. The rest is politics and we donât want that hereâŠ
An oil war just seems so surreal. Does the Trump Administration want to power all their new data centres with oil boilers? It is not 2003 anymore. The economy is a different one today. Arent the scarce resources today rare earths and perhaps electricity production down the line?
Maybe. But then, why my captân made me buy that much oil stocks? All the analysts said the price of oil will go down down downâŠ
I have no idea and probably nobody has. I guess I will make some money Monday but then Iâm more interested in long term gains. And I donât care if they are higher.
The headline is slightly misleading, it aligns more with the start of the sanction (so yeah you could say the change of regime is to blame, but thatâs stretching it somewhat, it really only declined with the sanctions which was somewhat later after Chavez got power).
In general, when something like this (Venezuela) happens, itâs worthwhile to critically look the OTHER direction to see if thereâs something from which attention was supposed to be distracted. Will be interesting to see how things play out.
Wow, I almost forgot: one year birthday of this thread.
I use it for discussion of mechanical strategies and as documentation (and proof) of my two mechanical strategies.
I am now in the 7th year of my momentum strategy and the 13th year of my dividend strategy. The momentum strategy just overtook Peter Lynch by CAGR/XIRR performance, but it is only 6 years and Peter had that for decades.
And I bought some General Mills today for my dividend portfolio. I had to invest dividends.
Iâm afraid I will have to invest more dividends, as the momentum portfolio is worth now more than the dividend portfolio and this situation hopefully continues. Therefor I take out the money I need for living from the momentum strategy.
One may find it stupid to spend from the strategy that produces almost the double performance. But then the performance of the divi strategy may get better when being able to reinvest dividends. Reinvesting dividends is the âbuyâ part of buy low sell high. The market dividend is the âsell highâ part.
And not everything is about performance. The dividend strategy has much lower risk, lower volatility and higher cash flow. And the tax lady smiles of joyâŠ
The big flour explosion that redefined General Mills in 1878:
I bought some too, also had some dividends left, and actually no more margin (thinking that we would get a decent Greenland dip, but as usual TACO). I am good on consumer goods now, next up should be some metals it seems. Never looked into those, so will have to do some reading and learning.
@cubanpete_the_swiss Iâm curious, if you have ever regressed your trading data versus fama french factors to try to explain where your returns came from? Like how much of your returns are through the various betas (momentum, value etc) and alpha?
No, I have not. Do you have a good link to the numbers?
Performance was not the primary goal when I did start in 2014 with the divi Strategy. Remember, I had to live off that for now more than 10 years, so the risk was more important.
Factor investing was not a thing when I started investing in the 80s of last century. But of course I found some of my rules align to factors, but not as defined by standards. In the divi strategy I use carry, value and momentum, but momentum is just a help for stopping a sale (explaind earlier in this thread). Value is calculated on a cash flow base, which is quite standard. Carry is just the dividend yield, but if stocks are bought back it does stop a sale too.
Anyhow, I think money management is more important than the rules that can be derived from factors.
The most important are not the rules anyhow. The most important and most difficult thing is following the rules.
BTW: yesterday was (again) the day I made most Dollars in a single day, second record this month. However, I lost more in a day, I think with COVID.
My momentum strategy surpassed again the 28% CAGR, is at 28.86% at the moment, without pre-market gains. I know, it is only 6 years, but I seem to be on the right path. The YTD gain is already 13.82%.
Crazy markets, letâs see what happens this year. I have no idea, but I know exactly what I will do in any situation.
In the US, we have profligate spending that is on the level of giving your teenage daughter an unlimited credit card. On the other hand, we have a Fed cutting in the face of continued inflation and that this isnât enough that criminal proceedings are taking place to oust Fed members and replace them with stooges.
With combined fiscal and monetary bazookas, surely the only outcome is a massive melt-up⊠at least until the reckoning comes.
I donât but I know the data is available somewhere. I know some people use https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ but the free version only gives 10 year returns.
If you do manage to do it in the future it would be intriguing to know the factor exposure you had in your portfolio.
Those tools all have in common that it is work⊠and I donât work any longer, I am the managing siesta director!
Tried portfoliovisualizer some time ago, they say my trying period is expired. If I remember correctly they did not let you enter the exact trades but only the stock symbols. OK, I can copy/paste that without interfering with my duties as a managing siesta director I think.
I tried out a java program not sure about the name, something like portfolio performance, but it didnât work on linux.
Liberty Oilfield Services, my latest addition to the momentum strategy from December, published earnings of $0.05 per share today. Analysts expected a loss of $0.16 per share. Pre-market plus only 4% at the moment, but in my first month of holding this company I made already >20%. Frack it baby, itâs nice to be an oil sheikh.
Since October last year I did only buy oil stocks. And it looks like this month will be the most successful (in Dollars, not in %) since I started the momentum strategy. OK, still today and tomorrow left. As they say in Spain âUn dia bonito, ya veras como viene alguien y lo jodeâ.
When I bought oil, I thought it was too early, so I bought only a small portion. I wondered whether I might invest more today and stocks were already 27% up with little fanfare. I wasnât monitoring this so was surprised that this has been quietly creeping up.
If you are interested, my captain says the following are still on buy. If I would have to invest money and not find anything new I would buy more of them: OIS, HP, NBR and LBRT.
PBF and CVI have lost momentum and BORR is already a bit expensive. May get much more expensive anyhowâŠ
Addendum: the biggest gains in this strategy I made with stocks that were already up much more than 100% when I added to the position. Our caveman brain doesnât like to buy after it went up, but that is exactly whatâs best.
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