While we’re offtopic, I found https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ku2-Nb-UbBo a fascinating watch 
(And did a tour of the water extraction plant in Zurich which was really impressive)
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Escalation in progress… after attacking Kharg, Trump and Iran are now trading threats around mutual destruction of oil infrastructure.
Of course. Because that makes US the largest oil exporter. Problem solved
Every time:
- Rest of world: please let Iran not do X in the region
- US/Israel: do X to Iran
- What do we expect Iran to do?
Israel/US already hit a lot of oil infrastructure* near Teheran and a desalination plant. At this point I’m not surprised by any retaliation anymore.
*: the smoke from that will likely cause tons of cancer in the coming decades too.
US might have oil reserves, but what about urea supply crisis? Surely Mr. Trump hasn’t thought about it.
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There’s an interesting amount of goods blocked across various supply chains, also e.g.:
- about 10% of global Aluminium supply was produced by impacted countries
- Most of TSMCs helium came from the region
I don’t think nuclear war, let alone a nuclear world war is a realistic scenario for Iran. I see a few narrow scenarios where it could happen and it would be avoided as all actors would be aware and not push into that scenario.
Sure. I was watching in particular for oil as energy was going to be my main focus for investment in 2026. Unfortunately, I didn’t manage to buy the bulk of what I wanted to as events moved faster than I did.
What about the private debit fears in addition to the war(s), inflation going up again and the AI (possible) bubble?
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Yeah, the private debt issue is an issue. Goldman actually said some of their private credit clients were glad of the war taking attention away. On the hand I hear private credit insiders say that all is fine and their standards are much better than lending standards leading up to the GFC, but they would say that, wouldn’t they?
Now, we had several cases coming up and either it is all a coincidence, or the canary in the coal mine showing that there could be something ready to blow up there.
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Ive Read a lot lately that most of the PET here ends up in the incinerator too 
Reviewing my allocation:
| Allocation | Grouping |
|---|---|
| 9% | Gold miners |
| 8% | Tobacco |
| 8% | Energy Midstream |
| 7% | Commodities |
| 7% | Oil |
| 7% | REIT |
| 7% | Uranium |
| 6% | SAAS plus |
| 5% | Turnarounds |
| 5% | Natural gas |
| 4% | Insurance |
| 4% | SAAS |
| 3% | Healthcare |
| 3% | Gold |
Only 12% in oil and gas (excl. midstream). I’d planned to make that 20%+ this year.
Today, I put in sell orders for 12% of the portfolio, which will almost de-leverage it completely.
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are these orders for execution on monday? Do you do limit orders or such?
I tend to only put in orders when the market is open so I can mostly see what is going to happen, curious what your workflow is here.
Yes, these are limit orders.
It’s because we live in hypocritical world. UN Security Council is passing resolution against Iran while vetoes the one condemning all three.
No wonder why global South doesn’t trust the west
The UN Security Council held two votes on the Middle East war, the first since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. A Bahrain-sponsored resolution condemning Iran – but not the US and Israel – was adopted. A second, Russian-sponsored one, condemning Iran and the US-Israel, was vetoed.
Iran is now saying that they will allow tankers to pass only if the cargos are sold for Chinese Yuan instead of USD. 
This seems to be part trolling and part attack against the petrodollar system. It would be a clever way to allow oil to flow while directing the impact towards USD and Treasury purchases.
I’m still sceptical that even if countries sign up and RMB settled shipments go ahead, whether it will really have an impact as I’m guessing even if settled in RMB, this will have back-to-back USD arrangement in place to hedge it out.
Get ready, Europe and Asia, it’s our problem now:
Well, it seem the US did their bit to decimate Iran, now it’s our job to secure the strait and get oil flowing. Sounds fair and reasonable.
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I just think they have no reasonable visibility in this and no processes to verify, making it very unlikely that their targeting uses anything other than an educated guess.
All countries with high oil reserves and who allow non USD trade are either sanctioned or bombed or destroyed. I never really read about this history but now learning how systematic it is.
To me this war might end up being similar to Tariff war. Outcome might be very different than what was intended.
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This could be the first time that Trump is (unintentionally?) following very long term US Policy?
I’ve been feeling for a while that Iran’s being clever about it. Does someone know/remember why was Iran even attacked? Is it because Trump is in Netanyahu’s pocket, and Netanyahu wants to stay out of jail?
Like last time, it seems that Israel initiated just before a deal between US and Iran could be agreed.
Israel has cleverly eliminated each of its 3 main threats in sequence instead of taking them at once. A stark contrast to the fly by seat of pants approach the US is taking.
In the past, Trump had complained that Netanyahu was fucking him, it seems he did it again.
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