Some sort of TACO yes, either way any sense of decency, consistency and plan have long been dumped in the toilet.
I voted “markets are levitating in denial - point of recognition coming soon”. Key question is whether I am making any changes to investing, answer’s no.
I asked AI to brainstorm different ways it could end and got this first option:
The “Declare Victory and Go Home” Strategy:
1. The “Mission Accomplished” Narrative
The US President takes to primetime television to declare total victory. The narrative is bulletproof for a domestic audience:
“We have eliminated the architect of global terror [the Ayatollah].”
“We have neutralized the Iranian nuclear threat for a generation.”
“We have sunk their navy and destroyed their missile forces.”
“Because we have destroyed all viable military targets, keeping our forces at high alert is no longer an efficient use of taxpayer dollars. I am ordering a transition to over-the-horizon deterrence.”
This frames the cessation of strikes not as a retreat, but as the natural end of a completed, highly successful mission.
The world will not let this drag on for too long. Too many trillions are on the line for China and the US.
And end will be forced sooner or later. This is not Iraq that can simmer for a long time, and where it doesn‘t matter that much for world trade.
That much is clear. The question is what combination of carrot and stick will be required to get Iran to stop.
A few months ago, Iranians were praying for rain and there were talks of having to give up Teheran if drought persists. Feels like war might be a welcome diversion also within Iran.
Globally, the oil shock will be felt but regionally, access to water is the real issue.
On a side note,
Do we all analyze what’s happening and what could happen with economics and markets in mind? I think yes and we’re damn right, not only for personal finance, the trillions rule the world.
I have some discussions IRL and people are more about ideology | good | bad | nuclear danger | Iranians killed by the police stuff | maybe even religion …
“hey this is all about petrol and the narrative is ruled by markets” sounds like conspiracy for some. Especially those who have no idea what s&p500 is (and there are many), or look at stocks market like some fun casino dumb people put their money in, nothing to do with real world.
I’m sometimes scared how, with all due respect, our so called free/occidental/democracy-powered society people have no idea the world they live in and the rules that govern it.
I don’t believe you’re SCARED! But yeah, most people don’t know much about much, it’s true.
So much it’s specialised (why and how does clean water come out the tap at home, where it is coming from, how much is there, what happens if it stops coming, why is it clean and it doesn’t give us cholera, who cleaned it, how, why is it not picking up heavy metals from the kilometres of pipping it goes through…one “simple” thing - a tremendous luxury in fact for many countries in the world - yet involving so much progress behind it, that any one person can’t possibly replicate if it breaks).
Let alone macro stuff. One of my favourite books really opened my eyes to the complexity of the world, and how much stuff quietly moves along in the background with most people (myself included in tons of topics) being completely unaware of the what/how/why of it all.
Edit: I showed to my mother once, who did/does think stocks are a casino for idiots and grifters, that nearly everything in her house, from the coffee machine to her carpet, is a product of tens/hundred of different companies, most of which issue shares, most of which are in an ETF I bought for her 
NOW you SCARED the shit out of me 
how is that even POSSIBLE? I just thought water came out of the tap.
until it doesn’t. Which reminds me, the few big desalination plants are probably feeling very vulnerable in this conflict, given how many countries in the region depend on desalination for drinkable water needs.
That’s all very scary. I go buy some bitcoins to chill out…
Hahahaha I remember now the very last frame of The Big Short (the film) said that “Michael Burry closed all his positions and is now investing in a single thing. Dramatic pause. water”
I’ve know a person who thought carrots grow on trees, and also remember a UK documentary where unironically people - working class people - said “they don’t buy recycling, it’s a scam, it doesn’t happen”, but after being taken to a recycling plant which made thread out of PET, and then clothes, one bimbo said “Oh wow, if it makes clothes I’m all up for it!”.
Ah, I just thought he was out of rehab to treat his alcoholism. Think I got the movie wrong.
What really scared me when there was a news item that a lot of people thought meat just came from a fridge in the supermarket and did not realise there was a link to animals/farming.
to be fair, there were genuinely a lot of cases where “plastic recycling” just meant shipping it to another country that claims it is recycling on paper but really wasn’t. In cases where it actually happens it genuinely is nice.
My kids thought that. When they were 3 years old. Then our older daughter floated the idea of “never eating meat again because she doesn’t want animals killed for her”.
See my post above, carrots growing on trees, I’ve heard it with my own three ears. It’s long been my belief that our world in the West is really made for the lowest common denominator of intellect and skill.
actually, there are many documented cases where it is a scam and even after separation, they go to the same landfill sites.
i even saw some bins in China which had different openings to separate plastic, cardboard etc. but when opened up, they all went into the same plastic bag.
Simpsons episode, they go to a newspaper printer and are told “Each newspaper contains a percentage of recycled paper”, Lisa asks what %, is told “0%, it’s a percentage!”
My cousins came to visit once and we said we’d go strawberry picking. One came with a pair of overalls and when we asked, he said they were for climbing trees to get the strawberries. The rest of us laughed hard. 
Many people have single property water distribution that they handle themselves. True, the water treatment part is more arcane but crafty people would find a way to have and/or make clean water if they needed it. The knowledge is around, water distribution isn’t like building a nuclear reactor with garage tools.
Edit: in Switzerland, where water is plentiful in most places.
