Let’s called them pre-scorched earth.
To deploy mines, you need to..deploy mines.
Who’s going out doing that when you have the US army around?
Is the phasing-out of nuclear energy being re-examined in CH?
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Yes
Expect a vote in the next couple of years.
Edit: doesn’t mean restarting nuclear, but instead not closing the option if it makes sense
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So far, Iran was surprisingly smart with how they played the game. If they still had time (aka the conflict went dormant but kept boiling) - its a matter of time until they use drones that deply anchored sea mines or crap like this…
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Iran blows attacks US tanker near Basra, Iraq. And a Greek tanker.
Tehran said the world should be ready for oil at $200 per barrel and warned that any tanker bound for the US, Israel and its partners was a legitimate target. The regime has also declared it has the right to strike financial institutions in the region, after an attack on an Iranian bank.
400 million barrels of reserve oil to be released to calm markets. Good luck with that. In the first 11 days, we already have an 220 million barrel deficit, so at best we have another 10 days not counting all the oil being blown up.
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What you write sounds reasonable, I assume the omniscient market prices in uncertainty still, though, rather than meltdown.
I am wondering whether crashes of the past (dotcom, GFC) were labelled post hoc with a “crash-defining event” that made the news specifically as a ECONOMY rather than stock crash, or not. I mean I remember myself the GR news talking about the Enron collapse and the UK news about the Lehman bankruptcy. Maybe this will be known as the Iran Oil Crash (if it turns out into one)?
When a vessel comes under scrutiny from port inspectors or coast guards, it can simply reregister under a different flag. Some registries even offer online registration If the new registration is fraudulent or the registry doesn’t actually exist, the vessel effectively becomes stateless. (..) According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, approximately 1,100 dark fleet vessels have been identified globally, representing roughly 17% to 18% of all tankers carrying liquid cargo, which is primarily oil. (..) Now, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to aboveboard maritime trade, the only vessels still moving are the ones that ignore the rules. (..) Illegal oil is the only oil moving in a crisis. In my view, that sends a message to those still playing by the rules: Opting out might be a viable option.
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Hah, there are no Greek tankers. There are many many many Liberian ones 
If there is a crash, I think Iran Oil will be fighting with AI for the title.
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If When there is a crash…
What science says we’re immune to market crash? (I know you didn’t mean that but that’s just a reminder for everybody 
)
That’s the most common biased for many investors, either because they’ve never experienced it, or it was not after they succeeded so well in bull markets, or even because they think “I already had my crash”.
Are stocks in denial? (anonymous poll)
- just a dip - Trump will throw a TACOette and it’s up up and away
- haven’t you heard of efficient markets - they know everything! S&P is down 300+ points, risks fully priced in
- markets are levitating in denial - point of recognition coming soon
- we are likely at the beginning of a prolonged bear market
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voters
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Where is the “I don’t know” option? I think it would be interesting to see as a data point about how many of us try to anticipate the markets. Though having it in this thread makes it already biased.
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fair enough - perhaps attach a smiley: 
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I don’t know. I think the bull case is that Trump TACOs, Iran doesn’t prolong the conflict and everything goes back to normal in a few months as oil exports resume.
I feel like Iran has to give US some kind of bloody nose, so maybe they drag it on a little bit.
Worse case scenario is that it drags on for a long time and causes massive economic impacts. I think China will be called in to pressure Iran at this point.
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I think my answer to the question would be “yeah, stocks are in denial but they’ve been for so long on so many topics that I’ve stopped trying to guess how they’ll behave.”
With a corollary that reality might catch up and so, keeping up being ready for a major and prolonged crash (as well as for more and prolonged euphoria).
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Aramco CEO chimes in:
“The disruption has caused a severe chain reaction in not only shipping and insurance, but there’s also a drastic domino effect on aviation, agriculture, automotive, and other industries,” Nasser said. “There would be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil markets the longer the disruption goes on, and the more drastic the consequences for the global economy.”
I wonder if US would offer sanctions relief as a carrot to end the war. e.g. drop secondary sanctions on oil and unfreeze assets. This would be disguised in terms of ‘humanitarian relief’ and for ‘reconstruction work’.
While energy is obvious, there’s also many other items below the headlines e.g. fertilizer, helium (which could impact semi-conductor production)