I think the idea could be to create more dependencies on US Energy products. Now that world see vulnerabilities in supply from Gulf in broad daylight, the best strategy would be to leave this uncertainty on the table, increase US production and strike more deals with worrisome nations.
Personally I think all these actions are about oil dominance for US (Venezuela, Iran and whoever next)
ironically when gulf states were showering US president with gifts last year, they didn’t know they were going to be rewarded with a status of unstable nations which they worked so hard to get out of over decades
I think so too. It is a black eye for China who depends most on VE and IR crude.
There’s simply no replacing oil for many applications. Even China who has most desperately tried to diversify (as they long feared the risks to energy disruption that is playing out now) has only at best stopped growing their oil imports in the last year and maybe that is just a mirage as a combination of: downturn in Chinese economy, hidden sanctioned imports, increased domestic production.
No, but I’m sure there are those in the deep state that do and find Trump a useful idiot to implement their plans.
Maybe I’m missing some points here. But I don’t fully see how this discussion fits into Investing / Portfolios. These are so high level discussions that it’s hard, if not impossible, to deduct concrete investment consequences. Would it be possible to move the high level discussion to the coffee section?
Just my 2 Rappen.
I’m talking about everything that you cannot use electricity for. Obviously for producing electricity, you have alternatives, but even here you have practical issues of time required to build it out.
Mines also seems counterproductive to me. What is the point of negotiating if the mines are already laid and you can’t remove them any easier than the other party? (also how would you remove them with no navy left?) As well as you can’t distinguish between ships you like (like exporting your own oil) and ships you don’t
Drones, whether in the air, on the water or underwater seem in many cases more practical to me. So if they’re laying mines, then they’re really scorched earth tactics, which isn’t a good sign for actually ending hostilities IMO.
Exactly. I completely agree with your analysis. It makes no sense for Iran. Right now they allow friendly countries to pass and are still exporting their oil while making others suffer. I agree that mines would only be used in a scorched earth last ditch action.
Lots of what is happening now are scorched earth actions.
Many things don’t follow the one masterplan anymore, as the masterminds are continuously taken out of the game.
Hence also the alleged letters with commands that subgroups got before this all went down and that can be executed without a top down command.
This makes it harder to predict (although maybe not that much harder than Trump who flipflops himself daily).
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