Future of Bitcoin

OK, what’s your time horizon for the store of value?

He took me 5 days (FIVE!!!) to have a payment go through Revolut this week, so I am quite confident which one is the best. And this was not the first time it happened to me… As for twint… I give you my US Iban and we test okay :sweat_smile:

Yeah, burning off methane may be good for the environment. When the entire Bitcoin mining capacity uses as much energy as entire mid-sized countries, the net effects aren’t. And the reality is that Bitcoin mining doesn’t happen in the most environmentally-friendly countries and circumstances - quite the contrary (no, Kazakhstan certainly isn’t a green electricity producer).

Nothing irks me more than these blatant greenwashing attempts that disingenuously deny reality.

What are you trying to prove here?

Most people in Switzerland have most of their friends, colleagues and families in Switzerland (or Europe). Most people don’t have a US bank account. Go, ask ten random people at work or on the street if they have TWINT and/or a working Bitcoin address to receive funds. Even normal people have TWINT.

So… Bitcoin is a valid solution for use cases few people have?

Side note:

:point_right: The US doesn’t have even IBAN numbers, so you won’t have on either :wink:

4 Likes

First let’s compare daily volatility, then weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly and every 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. We will see which one is more stable in these different intervals.

I don’t have such problems and I doubt many people do. And even those who do have these problems, they still don’t use Bitcoin for payments - which says a lot about adoption potential of this technology.

well at least I know you did not listen to the podcast, you should try, 1-hour of education is not lost! It has nothing to do with anything you said.

That’s we need better technology than twint for the 7b+ people out there…

That’s not what a store of value is made for… Do you mean an emergency fund maybe?

My time horizon is 2028, and my unit of account is bitcoin, I am expecting a nice positive trend. Bond market might be already dead by 2028 anyway.

Just check revolut support center… Last comment from two days ago: Been well over a week and my money still hasn't been credited (SOLVED, after 2 weeks) - #17 by mozo1993 - Feedback - Revolut Community

No, I don’t mean positive return on speculation - I mean a predictable and stable conservation of value. Bitcoin might be dead by 2028 and it might lose 90% of value within few months at any time. This is not store of value - this is lottery. In similar sense somebody could say that ARK ETFs are store of value.

PS. As Wikipedia says:

A store of value is any commodity or asset that would normally retain purchasing power into the future and is the function of the asset that can be saved, retrieved and exchanged at a later time, and be predictably useful when retrieved.

The most common store of value in modern times has been money, currency, or a commodity like a precious metal or financial capital. The point of any store of value is risk management due to a stable demand for the underlying asset.

4 Likes

Not gonna happen, bonds are debt and countries/people love spending on credit. 2028 is tomorrow, I’d take that bet and you could even pay me in bitcoins through whatever solution is up to date by then, provided bitcoins still exist, have a non-zero value and have enough liquidity to be sold in a matter of a few days.

5 Likes

Warning: I am not versed on macroeconomics, but…

At some point this has to stop, doesn’t it? If there are European countries with a debt of their 100% of GDP or more and growing fast as years pass by, when is it going to stop? At 250%? At 1000% At 6000%? What is the point of lending money to someone that will never be solvent to pay it back? It is a humongous bubble.

And if it bursts, it is going to hit hard both the creditors and the debitors.

Or you think we will not see such a scenario in our lifetime?

Genuinely asking.

1 Like

Too late to stop, usually it ends with a revolution and a debt jubilee

PS. Guys Ben Felix got a series of podcasts on crypto:

1 Like

looks like Tsla sold a good portion of its btc…

2 Likes

Signs of adoption and real fundamentals.

„YoY, operating income was primarily impacted by the following items:
(…)
- higher raw material, commodity, logistics and expedite costs
- higher per unit fixed costs in Shanghai due to shutdowns
- negative FX impact
- Bitcoin impairment

As of the end of Q2, we have converted approximately 75% of our Bitcoin purchases into fiat currency.“

So far, I‘m glad they didn’t do it similarly to Tesla.

6 Likes

I think you can easily find articles how sovereign debt is of different nature to corporate. It doesn’t mean any amount of debt is sustainable (and it also depends on what the debt is used for), but it’s still different (eg. main criteria is prob ability to pay interests).

Maybe start on Wikipedia to learn about the mainstream view before diving on the heterodox viewpoint (and understand which are heterodox, and thus considered more fringe among economists)

3 Likes

A formal default would be painful and politically unacceptable.
What was decided 10 years by the ECB (and the Fed before) was to reduce the cost of interest payments.
Some countries have taken that opportunity to balance their budgets and reduce their debt load, other have drawn the opposite conclusion: since debt costs almost nothing, it’s an incentive to make more deficits.

There are two ways of defaulting: formally, by being unable to pay back or paying interests, or by devaluing the currency: you let inflation devalue the debt - it is what is happenning currently.

I recommend the book “This Time Is Different”. Around half of the book is about the 1st default method, 2nd half is about the 2nd…

3 Likes

The main difference is that when you invest in government debt then government pays the interest to you with your own money that it collects via taxes.

Scary! Alternatively, if the government runs deficits, some of the interest’s money may come from other sources:

  • by borrowing from your neighbour or your pension fund (Ponzi style)
  • by “borrowing” from the central bank
1 Like

With sites like localbitcoins dot net you can meet someone in person to try and buy his tainted Bitcoin so you get in trouble for crimes somebody else commited. He could also stab you, take your cash and run, though.

On a more serious note, why would you want to turn money, that you already taxed into black money? You’ll never be able to use it for a mortgage or other big ticket items.

I guess you could buy Bitcoin with KYC and exchange it for Monero, then exchange it for Bitcoin again somewhere else that doesn’t have strict KYC and use fake credentials there? Would probably violate some laws but your doing the opposite of what AML is for so maybe it’ll be fine. But that don’t do that.

1 Like

I know, I know. I was trying to entertain it.

I don’t know. I guess I’d try the shady derivative exchanges that have YouTube sponsorships with sign-up bonuses? Basically something without FIAT on/off-ramps. But again, I haven’t tried.

//Edit:
Another thought: Cloud mining? Basically pay for mining of bitcoin and receive it at an address which hasn’t been linked to yourself outside of the cloud mining provider. Maybe you can find a cloud miner that accepts Monero or something like that.

1 Like

You’ve fallen victim to a scammer pretending to be Elon Musk hosting a giveaway where he doubles your coins?

3 Likes

Hodlhodl, bisq or paxful are kyc free if I recall well, I did over 100k on holdhold without issue already, and without kyc.

Otherwise, as it was designed, peer to peer from node to node behind tor.

I think wallet like Wasabi can work as well for this, also I haven’t tried myself.

1 Like

Care to point me to some of those Wikipedia articles? I am quite newbie.