Future of Bitcoin

I am happy if you are happy.
Those points have been discussed over and over we don’t need a repeat here. You wont change your opinion and i wont change mine.

I own some btc, and some eth, but i’m highly skeptical of any future valuation. There is in my opinion no real “need” for btc (yet). If we go parabolic, nice…

If their products were forced onto people by the government, then 20% would not really sound like a success.

3 Likes

Merchants would love to get rid of the 3.5% merchant discount rate charged by visa/mastercard/amex, but they won’t.

Visa/Mastercard benefit from classical network effects.
As long as I, as a user, fear that I might need my Visa card to purchase something because I am not sure if other means of payment will be available (let’s say, renting a car abroad, or purchasing plane tickets), this will be my default means of payment. Sure, it might be wrapped into other applications like Google pay or Apple pay, but at the end it is all rooted towards Visa/Mastercard rails.

Merchants use Visa/Mastercard because they know that’s what buyers mainly use.
Buyers use Visa/Mastercard because they know that it works and will be accepted anytime, anywhere in the world.

It’s not enough to build a better mousetrap, you have to convince everybody at once to switch network. That’s a chicken and egg issue. Buyers won’t use BTC a lot because not a lot of merchants offer it. Merchants won’t offer BTC because they know that most of their clients use Visa/mastercard anyway.

Oh and btw, the Visa/Mastercard network supports instant settlement, even on sundays. it’s just that payment processors (who are plugged on the network) don’t offer all the feature…

5 Likes

All these points have been discussed above. Just replying to your first point:

  • have you talked to any real shopkeepers? The ones in El Salvador don’t want to transact in BTC because it is volatile, same for their customers

  • if they want the instant settlement and to cut fees in the future they can get the same with CDBC - there is no added utility of BTC Vs CDBC

Funny… similar discussions were around btc price of 500 USD then 10k and so on. I suppose they will persist even at 1M price level.

2 Likes

Well markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

I also think we would have the same discussions at 0, this only proves my point that we don’t need to discuss it further since no one knows. We can just enjoy the show.

2 Likes

Bitcoin is about as trusted as Email with GPG signatures:
Within a small bubble of adherents, they understand they understand the technology (to at least some degree. Or at least they think they do) and trust it.

Meanwhile the average person on the street has read about all the insecurity and scams going on through email and doesn’t trust it to be secure.

As a matter of fact, Bitcoin settlement is not free.
Neither are higher-level protocols (Lightning) that add additional complexity on top of it.

And with (virtually) no people in the world receiving their salaries in Bitcoin, exchange to Bitcoin is far from free either.

You don‘t. The existence of Bitcoin forks is enough evidence to the contrary.
So is the migration from Ethereum to Ethereum 2 - one of the more noteworthy changes of protocols. Even Bitcoin’s protocol has been changed in the past.

Yes, I do. I wish they‘d perform in my own home or backyard in 3D. Some of them even did, on 3D television/cinema. Yet 3D movies have, time and again, proved to be fads.

It remains to be seen whether some virtual entry in a database err… blockchain will prove to be desirable over the long term. I doubt it.

1 Like

Again, do you have any model, to which you would anchor your price predictions for BTC? Why should 1 BTC be worth $1’000’000? Just because it’s a trustless bookeeping system? You can create an infinite number of such systems, BTC clones. So the scarcity of BTC relies on its integration in the economy, and the reluctance to integrate any alternatives.

Just because something is scarce, doesn’t mean it’s valuable. I like the used car analogy. You get fewer and fewer of Ford Ka’s available on the market, yet the price at which you can buy it keeps going down. Why? Because you have more attractive alternatives.

If a superior financial product to BTC is launched, people might opt for it and the demand for BTC dwindles and BTC becomes worthless. So I suppose BTC relies very much on constant development and making the right improvements. In a way, it’s just like a regular company taking care of its product. Do you think iPhones will be sold into infinity? I think not, because either Apple makes a couple of wrong decisions, or new technology makes them obsolete.

4 Likes

Nope. Just my gut feeling. I know it’s not a good basis for such discussions in here.

Yeah, gut feeling is not a good basis for discussions, but it is great guide for investing decisions? :smiley:

5 Likes

Surely it is common :slight_smile:

3 Likes

Game theory, if it doesn’t go to zero, it will go to infinite. Fiât inflation only will help with that (for the worst) :sweat_smile:

I am referring to a smart contracts that allows peer to peer streaming of transactions, sounds pretty neat. Not possible as far as I know with the best databases. But that’s an advanced use case, it will develop in the coming years (my bet: watch tidal moving into this space soon)

You don’t need to follow a fork, you decide with your own node, fork doesn’t mean consensus. You can now to github and fork btc if you want. On the other hand, you don’t even know what your government will announce next week. Same for your central bank (which you did not even elect).

Virtually free, and very much cheaper than credit cards.

Bitcoin requires no trust, that’s the whole point, you can verify everything

There are enough videos of real shopkeepers to see how it works…

Cdbc is a tool to control people and monstrosity, nothing to do with btc

You are right, bitcoin replaces SEVERAL middlemen more efficiently and all their features, they will become obsolete (my bet: swift will disappear in the next 5 years)

Visa/mastercard will end up integrating with the lightning network, just a matter of time. You will have the possibility to use your own node to pay in a non-kyc way or use your Visa card as usual if you don’t want to take care of your node

It was not forced. A lot of governmental programs fail all the time, I won’t call 20% after a year a failure.

BTW, there is a first short bitcoin etf launching tomorrow in the US. Go for it if you have conviction :crossed_fingers::joy::crossed_fingers:

1 Like

I mean it’s no surprise that people heavily invested in Bitcoin come up with surrealistic prophecies. They have a vested interest in it because it’s the only way how to increase the price they have paid.

It’s like a cult or sect, you have to convert as many people as possible with whatever stories you can come up with to make them believe in that narrative too. They need to make others believe that if they join the cult they will live in paradise and if they don’t and remain non-believers, they will miss out the only opportunity in life to escape the purgatory. :slight_smile:

3 Likes

Yes you can fork. But you can’t know what other forkers will decide - and what the new consensus will be, or what the majority of users and nodes will follow.

And ignoring the majority and consensus and following your own (or any niche) fork with conviction is pointless from an investment perspective - since you will lack the ability to make real-world transactions for other currencies, goods or services.

Using money that no one but you uses is using money that’s not useful.

Given the history of central bank decision-making and fiscal decision making by governments, it has arguably been more predictable and less balkanising than most popular open-source software projects.

How much?

Transactions on the Blockchain, yes.

But that’s not everything you have to trust in making transactions.
Can you trust the identity behind a certain wallet address?
Can you trust the service provider holding your bitcoin in a hot wallet for you?

Has one single bank individual/organisation ever stolen 0.5% of the total supply of one of the world’s largest currencies - to one single bank account?

:point_right: How much you wanna bet on that?

Shall we make it a Bitcoin?
I’ll even sweeten the bet for you:

  • You lose, and you just pay me today’s equivalent of Bitcoin. In fiat currency (USD).
  • I lose and I’ll pay you one strong, hard Bitcoin.

Should be a no-brainer, if you’re convinced it’s going to be adopted and gain in worth.

5 Likes

You’d be surprised by how many banks still use software from the 80s/90s, because it’s too expensive to switch to newer systems. SWIFT will not disappear anytime soon, there’s too much dependencies from far too many counterparties.

1 Like