Future of Bitcoin

But that is not possible at EU right? If you devaluate the currency which all EU states share, then you make poorer all of them when the massive debt is only held by some. Or am I missing something?

The ECB is giving credit, but this money comes from somewhere and I doubt it comes from the creditors themselves, otherwise they would have no need to ask for the money. So someone is paying for the party of debt.

Pretty unfair if I get it right.

Well, there is bisq, which is a DEX and it can be anonymous. For 100k might be cumbersome, but it can be done. Check their webpage, it is all explained, including how to get anonymously the first little ammount of BTC you need to operate there.

There is other option (I haven’t explored it deeply so might not be 100% accurate : You buy those 50k in monero in a CEX (with KYC etc.) then immediately you transfer that to a monero cold wallet that you own. From that wallet to a second monero cold wallet you own. At this point if I am not mistaken this is untraceable back to the CEX with KYC. Then you just have to go to any place without KYC to trade those monero for bitcoin, and you put that bitcoin in a cold wallet. Will this work?

Not only it is possble, but it is in full swing! Currently, there is 8.6% inflation for the Euro Zone, while the ECB has only just begun to lift its deposit facility rate for the first time in 11 years, from -0.5% to 0%

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True. But serious question: Does the government/tax authorities care about money going outwards? I thought it was always about money coming inwards.

I think there is nothing ilegal about getting out of the bank 100k and store it in cash under your matress (outward). Problem would be if after some time you want to put that money back into your bank account (inwards).

This problem is unsolvable AFAIK, yes. In fact, purely theoretically speaking, the second you put any money on Monero, it becomes dirty money to the tax authorities, because if you want to put it to fiat again, you cannot prove where it comes from, even if it is from your own cold wallet. It is untraceable money, thus dirty to the eyes of the taxman.

Yes, in practice it will probably be as you say. But think about it carefully from a theoretical point of view (it is a theoretical exercise). To the taxman eyes, there is no way to prove that fiat from Monero is the same money you initially put in. It cannot be traced to the original fiat.

They say (I don’t know if it is true) that if you want to keep those 100k under your matress and be able to put them back to use legally after some time, it is necessary to take notes of the serial # of the bills. Dunno if it is true, I heard it years ago.

Haha it seems we are in the same train of thoughts. While you were replying I edited the original post and added the bills serial #thing.

So for the sake of pure theoretical discussion on a Saturday morning: Imagine you go to the bank and get 100K in cash in a black suitcase. You go to the park to sit down, leave unattended the suitcase and someone steals it. You then run around to try to find the thieve and find a grey suitcase hidden behind the bushes. Open it and there is 100K cash and you decide to keep it and bring it home with you.

What happens then? To the taxman, is that money yours? Because that is what happens with Monero. The difference is that the taxman doesn’t know what happened in the park, but certainly knows (or will know) what Monero is.

Yeah, no, ok sorry. The suitcase thing was a silly example (maybe too silly).

What I wanted to say is that once your money touches a monero wallet, there is no way in the world to demonstrate that money is the same one you put in, and I think this is a theoretical problem for many countries taxmen. You have to be able to prove where that money came from. And with Monero you can’t.

Let’s try another silly example:

  • I put 100k in a monero wallet
  • I pay 80k to Pablo Escobar for some merchandise
  • I get paid 200k by Bernie Maddoff for some work I did for him
  • I then withdraw from my Monero 90k to fiat
    vs
  • I put 100k in a monero wallet
  • I then withdraw from my Monero 90k to fiat

If the taxman would want to screw me for those 90k and fine me and make me pay a high % for unknown source of funds, theoretically they would be right and there would be no way for me to prove them wrong. It is untraceable money whether used illegitimately (1st case) or legitimately (2nd case).

Now, any of the 2 cases with a traceable money like BTC or ETH, then I would be able to prove where the money come and went to.

Hope I make myself clear? It is a pure theoretical discussion though :slight_smile:

Let’s see how this develops. I am of the thinking that we haven’t seen nothing yet regarding to crypto. Might be a value/price bubble for most of altcoins for sure and maybe also for BTC. But technologically… this hasn’t even yet started :slight_smile:

Oh btw @Patron you might be interested on this:
https://www.schneier.com/tag/cryptocurrency/

No presentation needed for Schneier I guess. He has many good small articles summarizing many flaws on crypto anonymity/traceability and similar topics.

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Probably Government debt - Wikipedia as a start. There are also good books on history of finance (I liked “Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible”).

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I like Ray Dalio for these vulgarizations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

I’m not excluding that one or more sovereign state could default (Russia seems close to it, the US sure seem to like making a show of toying with it everytime an increase in the debt ceiling is required) but I’m confident the global system of securitizing debt will still exist in the years to come (bonds being considered as assets that can be purchased and sold - upon which the existence of bond markets lies).

The value of bonds relies in the trust of investors that they are going to be repaid their principal back, as well as the whole amount of the agreed upon interest. When it comes to sovereign bonds, it isn’t too much different than fiat money (the main difference is the duration, cash could be seen as a zero duration bond). If trust in a goverment crumbles, then both their bonds and their currency should plummet (assuming they have their own currency, bonds issued by a government in a foreign currency are more exposed to the risk of default). There are chances it would be accompanied with the fall of the country as we know it (think Weimar Republic turning into Nazi Germany or the fall of the Roman Empire).

There again, Ray Dalio has an interesting series of podcasts about the changing world order: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8

I’m not saying US debt will always be valuable (I am of the personal opinion that the US debt is a very risky investment with subpar returns at the moment, especially since they seem to be at a turning point historically and could end up going either way), but I’m very confident bond makets, overall, will survive.

The Eurozone is yet a different situation. Euro bonds emitted by a country could be considered the equivalent as state bonds in the US, or bonds emitted by a canton in Switzerland, their safety relies on the economic health of the country emitting them and the strength of the support mechanisms between countries in the eurozone. I haven’t studied it yet so I haven’t really built expectations for the returns on bonds in the eurozone.

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I just wanted to address some misconceptions:

You can proof this. Especially since you control all the wallets in this case: How to prove a payment was made

Ring size is up to 16 from 11 since 2022-07-16 (check the blogpost). That means you get 16 potential origins for each transaction. Your proposition churns only once (= 16^1 = 16). It might be attributed to you with high confidence.

Also I assume the used Ring Signatures are vulnerable to Quantum Computers. You need defence in depth to counter future decryption power.

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Thanks!!

So then make it pass thru 6 monero cold wallets (16^6 or 16*6 different addresses? I guess that is enough?), and on the last step instead of 1 BTC, again 2-3 BTC different wallets with coinjoin. Seems complicated but once you know how to create/operate a cold wallet it is extremely easy.

Would that work?

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Monero has some seriously nasty attacks. Some are countered by churning:

  • Small anonymity set for Exchange>Wallet>Wallet>Exchange. Especially if the value (minus fees) is passed through fully.

Some are enhanced by churning:

  • Correlation of transaction activity and activity on your internet connection (More churning more events).
  • Sweeping multiple owned (and therefore likely closely related) outputs together makes them visible as likely true inputs.

I think you can weaken the negative effects of churning with certain measures, though. But then how much churning is needed? There is no conclusive research. Six sounds like a nice number. It makes for a theoretical 16,777,216 origins.

tl;dr: Don’t depend on Monero alone if you want to blow up the White House. It only obfuscates without more stringent guarantees. (The same is also true for Tor)

Here is a somewhat authoritative write-up I found.

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One uses braided chains, 20 actually and can scale through adding as much chains as needed

I think you mix up a few concepts. What makes bitcoin decentralized is not the single chain but how you validate the protocol (decentralized network of nodes) and audit the ledger (decentralized network of miners).

Another way to see it is once data is written on the chain, it is immutable. This means that no centralized authority can decide to rewrite the chain unilaterally. So no central authority can change the protocol, change the ledger, or prevent you from using it.

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For the Monero crowd, you can check Cake Wallet: https://cakewallet.com/

If I understand well this could help to change and transact between btc and Monero.

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One excellent example that comes to mind from history is the phenomenon of Civil War tokens. These tokens were a revolutionary new technology at the time during the 1860s, which were privately minted and distributed throughout the United States of America. It could be argued that these tokens were some of the world’s first widespread ‘crypto’ currencies, as they were used in place of government-issued money in America but were not backed by anything.

It is estimated that from 1861 to 1864, there “25,000,000 Civil War tokens, (nearly all redeemable for one cent).” Today, the tokens are collectors items, which vary in value based on their type and scarcity

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I’m a millennial, I cannot be bothered with anything that happened before the 80ies (Stranger Things) :grin:

Seriously though, i fear bitcoin’s collectible career’s going to be less successful than magic cards or tamagotchis. Holding btc is just not as fun, no haptic experience, even cold hard goldvreneli feel better (not to mention the beautiful glimmer :joy:)

Adoption:

Nomad crypto bridge loses $200 million in ‘chaotic’ hack - The Verge

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