Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

Probably not that long. S&P isn’t that far away from the 2000 mark. We could easily see that next week.

I think a lot of the bad economic news will be “priced in” earlier, especially at the current infection rates.

The economic impact is probably hard to quantify, but I think we’ll see a point at which “bad news” aren’t going to shake the markets much anymore.

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PS: Also, I don’t think I would be able to prognose the “bottom” of the market. It might depreciate slowly over months, or even see another crash due to

The main thing I want to see the markets digest (prior to making larger investments) is sharp increase in numbers of domestic cases and deaths, and thus possibly another “wave of panic” in the U.S. (as being the world’s most important stock market). Which, I think, is a realistic scenario, as they aren’t that well prepared and currently probably lagging behind Europe by a couple of days or weeks in infections and deaths.

This is the proverbial “falling knife” I don’t want to catch.

Longer-term, there are of course still other risks ahead. Maybe on the bond markets, with governments defaulting or what not. But that’s even harder to predict und unforeseeable for me.

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You probably have to wait only 7 days…

Probably lump sum as I can’t get unlucky 3 times in a row :stuck_out_tongue:

If SP500 is at 2000 at that time I will be happy to lump sum it.

Waw, “cash for trash” again, but with 3 zeroes more this time!

Absolutely. So stay cash as before and wait!

Switzerland has increased its capacities in the past weeks in an impressive way. The hospitals have increased several folds their ICU beds, moved the employees to new duties. The respirators have been ordered long ago but the company, which is based in Switzerland, is just slow to deliver because it operates at its full capacity. We have masks and ordered more but some are blocked by… Germany. Maybe we should block their respirators orders… Negotiations must be fun :slight_smile:

Testing population-wise is high. Switzerland tests more than Germany (per inhabitant per day). We would all be happy to do more tests but the reagent is difficult to get hold of. US have blocked our orders. Maybe we should block their respirators orders as well…

All spital battalions have been mobilized, plus several groups of paramedics and support troups, people with families, duties, jobs, thousands of them, have leaved to help in civil hospitals and build extra hospitals (we have those easy to build hospitals made of a container that can expand, up to 200 beds in a day).

All this to say that the current Swiss/authorities bashing seems to be unfair, if not quite disgusting. I know people at the federal level and in Geneva (OFSP, HUG, parliaments) who have been working 18 hours a day for a month now to prepare for this and all people are able of is complain and say that it is not enough.

So, whether you look at testing, personnel, hospitals or beds, I don’t think that Germany is better prepared despite having 2 weeks more than us.

*end of rant

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I’m still puzzled by the age distribution of positive cases, my impression is that places with widespread testing have it a lot more skewed towards young people. But we don’t really see that in Switzerland, maybe because the testing capacity is only starting to get online?

That’s what Zimbabwean central bank thought.

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(>’-’)> <(’-’<) ^(’-’)^ v(’-’)v(>’-’)> (^-^)

And a beautiful rant it was. I completely agree and i personally think that Switzerland has had among the better responses in europe. There are far worse examples like the UK and the Swedes. South korea, Hungary and Chech republic are even more impressive with their way of taking this seriously from the very beginning, which is good now later on and means that they don’t have to take as hard decisions as some other countries will have to do soon…
But yes, praise to all the hard working people on all the hospitals.

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I fondly remeber the days when Zimbabwe dollar was world’s reserve currency.

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And did you see the response of Yugoslavia? Incredible!

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If only the HOLY Roman Empire had the equally good and fast response!

Point taken. FED has more room than any other bank. It’s however exaggeration to say that it doesn’t have physical limits. There are limits, we haven’t reached them yet though.

News just in: https://www.ft.com/content/dacd2ac6-6b5f-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

The country home to the phrase “schwarze Null” (black zero) in reference to its balanced budget commitment is set to unveil a €600B bailout fund to deal with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. As a reference, a U.S. plan on the same scale in relation to the economy would be north of $3T.

As part of the German package, the government is planning on raising more than €350B in debt (about 10% of GDP).

Private corporations … welcome to your new partner. Included in the fund is €100B to take direct equity stakes in what might otherwise be bankrupt companies. There will also be €400B to help back the debt of troubled companies.

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I think I’ll buy a little bit of VT just in case these rescue packages will be enough to prevent a recession and a stock market crash. But not too much, because I still believe a crash is possible once we will see army collecting coffins on the streets of NYC.

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Joke of the day, how the Swiss CDC is managing the coronavirus data. https://www.ictjournal.ch/news/2020-03-20/les-lacunes-aberrantes-de-la-collecte-de-donnees-a-lofsp

“As a result, the backlog of unprocessed files is growing and pushing staff to make extreme decisions, such as having to weigh the forms received to determine the number of forms.”

“Worse, the official statistics were only recently taken from Wikipedia.”

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Doctors in Spain have been recommended to treat patients who have more than two years’ life expectancy and to evaluate a patient’s potential value to society when deciding who to treat first, a controversial piece of advice

Any ideas how would it look like in Switzerland? Would it matter what kind of insurance you have? I’m asking for the future, because then I would consider to up my health insurance plan. That’s what insurances are for, right? To protect you from life-threatening events. So paying, I don’t know, 600 CHF per year extra to have a priority in case of shortage of beds could make sense. And this money could go to upgrade the hospital infrastructure. Ain’t no point in being rich if you’re dead, right?

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Considering that it doesn’t exist anymore… :slight_smile:

Joking aside, one thing I’ve noticed is that the italian curve is noticeably less steep than the american one. The swiss one is inbetween though.

I think no one was bashing the hard worker here. Or at least not me. Who I might bash is whoever has the power to set new law and start fining/“domestic-arrest” people and instead let the picked person of the day to go in front of the journalist and start the “pleease pleeeaase stay home” mantra.

If it might ever happen, it will be based on health and age.

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